I'm beginning to come to the conclusion that with the awareness and acceptance factor so low (especially world wide) coupled with the speed at which negative outcomes are projected in some scenarios, that most people will never know what hit them. I hope I've alive 20 years from now so that I can get a historical perspective.

Comments/Opinions?

-- MVI (vtoc@aol.com), December 19, 1998

Answers

I think your right! I have been tyring to tell people about this y2k, but 99% laugh, they say get real , have a beer relax...your worried about nothing!!!! Party like its 1999.

-- Caveman (Da@Cave.com), December 19, 1998.

Maybe TSWHTF sooner rather than later?

http://webserv.vnunet.com/www_user /plsql/pkg_vnu_comp.top_ten?p_story_id=71995&l_to_date=23-DEC-98

Year 1999 Bug Threat
'Failure curve' suggests that UK companies face biggest threat before 1 January 2000.

Users must have their year 2000 contingency plans in place and tested by the middle of next year, and not risk leaving them to the second half of 1999, writes Lisa Kelly.

This is the message of Ian Hugo, assistant director of campaign group Taskforce 2000, who has plotted a 'failure curve' for 1999. It is a pioneering attempt to quantify year 2000 failures.

The statistics show that some 60% of all millennium-related failures will occur during 1999 and only 30% in 2000, including on 1 January.

'Everyone is looking at what will happen on 1 January 2000, but the answer is not a lot,' said Hugo. 'Most of those failures are likely to be date roll-over errors. Some may not even be detected at that time. Most will occur in the first half of 1999.'

He added: 'Failures have been occurring for several years, the earliest of them in life assurance and savings and loan applications. At least 10% will have occurred before 1999.'

Failures will occur on key dates which may be detected later, at the start of business process cycles, and at deadlines for re-installing, upgrading and replacing systems.

A big danger zone is April 1999. 'For the public services, the new financial year starts in April, but budgeting and scheduling looks forward to the year 2000,' said Hugo. According to Hugo, business is missing the point by focusing on the date roll-over. 'IT date failures corrupt data, but they don't stop the system.

The most significant failures in IT are failures to deliver upgrades and replacements,' he said. 'Bugs introduced through changes and configuration management errors can stop the system.'

Hugo said 1999 will see IT projects fail through 'a scenario of death by attrition', where the sheer scale of upgrades planned for next year will cause a log-jam.

Hugo maintains that while his 'failure curve' may not stand the test of a full statistical analysis, he says: 'It is vital that industry understands this issue and prepares before the deadline'.

Some users are still confident of avoiding failures. British American Tobacco's company secretary, Philip Cook said: 'By the end of this year, 80% of our suppliers and kit will have been audited. We plan to do the remaining 20% by March next year.'
... KEY FACTS
- Industry analysts believe that 60% of year 2000 failures will occur in 1999
- In the UK many failures will occur on or around 1 April - Only 20% of date failures will occur on 1 January 2000

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-- Leska (allaha@earthlink.net), December 19, 1998.

You are probably right. My boss figures if you get cought up in the gloom and doom that you forget the important stuff. HUH?!?!?!?

BTW Nice job. saw them go poof!!

CR

Next time try to leave a little dust.

-- Chuck a night driver (rienzoo@en.com), December 19, 1998.

thanks Chuck...I got your post before the thread went bye bye. They still won't know what a vtoc is. LOL

MoVe Immediate

-- MVI (vtoc@aol.com), December 20, 1998.

I have an idea for a Y2K memorial. A bronze automatronic statue (ala Disney) of INFOMAGIC standing with his right arm raised, hand palm down parallel to the ground and slightly higher than his head. Every few minutes the right hand passes swiftly over his as he makes a loud zoooooming sound.

MoVe Immediate

-- MVI (vtoc@aol.com), December 20, 1998.