I recently had an extended conversation with a manager of an electric co-op that is involved in peaking generation and distribution of power. He has been in the electric industry for 37 years. Most of their power is purchased and wheeled to their location. They believe that if they can get power from the transmission lines, they can distribute the power. They know they will have outage problems and the systems will most likely require a lot of manual intervention for awhile. Voltage regulation will be a "little loose" and the system may have power factor issues due to load imbalance. However, in the final analysis, the distribution will work. Their business software has been Y2K compliant for 12 or 18 months now and they only anticipate minor flaws. Collections may be a problem and they are prepared to go door to door if necessary. The co-ops are generally very good about extending credit to customers when necessary. They are sending out Y2K statements to the effect of "we will do our best...". Their lawyers have them scared of litigation and assert that the new federal Y2K laws are almost worthless.

However confident they are about their distribution systems, they are very concerned about their ability to buy and receive power. Power suppliers are not publicly saying *anything* that is quantifiable about progress. All information from power suppliers is off the record and public information will remain as vague as possible in 1999. Even so, the suppliers are saying that redundant control systems are being installed in some of the critical locations to process the data that is delivered to the control centers. Interchanges and substations are being "checked" for Y2K issues, but the implication is that most equipment is being type tested. Of primary concern in the transmission systems are the voltage sensors, the under-frequency sensors, and other "RTU" type boxes that deliver data back to the control system. The manager is *very* concerned about both the voltage and frequency sensors. Faulty readings from either of these can shut an entire transmission system in seconds (San Fran...).

On the business software front, he knows that 30% of the electric co-ops in the nation most likely will not be running compliant business software.

He is just now beginning to ask, "what if the under-freq relays kick everything off for the whole state?" It would take a minimum of 36 hours are so to get the power back on and then ... would it stay on? These are pretty big questions for a power utility manager whose customers have averaged less than 3 hours of outage per year for the last several decades.

I'm sure that the power suppliers are working hard, but I'm also sure that they have yet to discover the magnitude of the problem.

Just a note to add to info to the knowledge base ... Best fishes, DSmith

-- Anonymous, December 19, 1998