when is it all going to come down ?greenspun.com : LUSENET : TimeBomb 2000 (Y2000) : One Thread
help! i need some honest feedback about the timing of these events we anticipate happening. i am looking at some expensive equipment purchases 1q or 2q 99. yes or no ? do or die ? put up or shut up ?
-- reed moore (email@example.com), December 19, 1998
Scan the preparedness thread in the archives.
Then go to :
So it ain't a hot link. Adjust!!
-- Chuck a night driver (firstname.lastname@example.org), December 19, 1998.
Do or die it might well be. Can you afford to purchase the equipment or whatever and be wrong if y2k is a bump in the road? Or would you be better off not purchasing the whatever and being wrong if y2k is a disaster? How much did you spend on insurance (home, car, life, health, business etc) this year? How does that compare to your prospective purchases? Maybe Santa ought to bring some beans and rice, a woodstove and some open pollenated seed this year, hmmm??
-- nemo... (email@example.com), December 19, 1998.
The problems start on January 1, 1999 and get worse and worse as the year goes on until January 1, 2000. Panic probable by July or August of 1999. I'd at least buy the less expensive things now, like a heat source, water, food, toilet paper and matches.
Also, keep in mind the stock market could crash anytime between now and the summer of 1999.
-- Kevin (firstname.lastname@example.org), December 19, 1998.
Honestly Reed, No one knows,
However there are expected trip points. See also the list on Ed Yourdons web-site that begins with Only 376 days to Jan 1, 2000 at http://www.yourdon.com/index.htm. Those are some dates to watch closely as well.
Id wait on the equipment, other things may become more important. Can you make do with what you have?
-- Diane J. Squire (email@example.com), December 20, 1998.
Preparedness is an ongoing project. If you wait to spend all your bucks at once, you will forget something, or not do your research and buy the wrong thing, or wait longer for the items to arrive.
Shampoo costs $.99 for a 12 oz bottle. Water costs about $.60 a gallon. Start now on the small stuff, and be saving your money for the big things you can't afford yet. If money is no problem now, get the big stuff, and fill in around it with the small stuff.
What are you doing today, right now, for preparedness?
-- Just me (firstname.lastname@example.org), December 20, 1998.
Seriously, Do you programmers/y2k specialists think 1/99 is a problem???? I know everyone has an opinion..and a different one at that..but could you elaborate on the why's or why not's so I can make an informed decision for myself...I know the main ingredients since I have been studying this while...I just can't decide whether 1/99 is really a problem. Has there been any problems with programs last hear that projected into 1/99??
-- More Dinty Moore (Not @this time.com), December 21, 1998.
# # # 19981221 -- Enjoy the Winter Solstice!
More Dinty Moore:
Generally, programs that have been "remediated," implemented in production, and process "event horizons" into the future ( i.e., escrow mortgage accounting, personal lines of credit, etc. ) will be vulnerable to expressing errors ( i.e., incorrect "fixes," overlooked "fixes" ) as the timeline progresses.
Unless the business/government agency has the resources to adequately handle "fire-drill" or "meatball" triage on the errant system/s, the meltdown could be considered to have begun.
I worked on an integrated series of mortgage escrow systems and subsystems that--left untouched--would have begun failing as of July 1, 1998! The "Event Horizon" ( EV ) to ( complete ) failure for this particular system was 18 months. As it was, I--having been brought in to the project mid-stream--discovered many unintended errors of omission and commission, in code implemented in the client production environment.
The remediation process was flawed. I recommended several preemptive measures for process improvement and implemented code was visually reviewed--AGAIN-- for errors. What a waste of time, indeed.
The key phraseology in thinking of code failure is "Event Horizon" ( EV ). EV's can run the gamut from gradual, rolling, snowball-effect to absolute, utter failure. Inventory control systems, for instance, with varying reorder points for each item, would express the rolling failure effect.
So, the bottom line is, any date, really, can become a "critical" date within remediated or unremediated systems.
I hope this helps!
Regards, Bob Mangus # # #
-- Robert Mangus (email@example.com), December 21, 1998.
A friend of mine works for a mostly automated radio station. Programming from the network, and the commercials that run in between, are controlled by computer. A disc-jockey records a commercial, inputs it to a hard drive, and puts date information in as well with the commercial.
A couple of months ago, a friend of mine recorded a commercial, entered it in their system, and included the date it was to first run, and the kill date it's not supposed to run after.
When the commercial was supposed to be played for the first time, three days later, the attempt to play one with a kill date of October (20)00 crashed the station's computer and took the station off the air. It took the secretary, the only person in the building, about 20 minutes, plus some phone calls, to get the computer running again and the station back on the air.
This was a test by a friend of mine who I'd been talking to about Y2K. Live Y2K tests like this are dangerous, and I would have told him not to if I'd known he was going to try a test like this.
The station still doesn't know what happened. The program director upgraded from DOS to Windows 95 a few months ago, because the PD had heard that DOS isn't 2000 compliant. Only problem here is, the software that schedules the commercials is from 1985, and only uses two digits for the year. Sometime during 1999, another person will enter a spot with a (20)00 kill date, and then the station will crash again...and again...
The program director says he will roll the year of the system back in 2000, which I don't think will work. The general manager says he can't afford any new, major purchases for another year and a half.
Oh yeah, one other thing; the out-of-town network that provides the feed this station broadcasts isn't compliant either. This kind of denial is why panic is going to hit by next summer.
The January 1999 problems are supposed to be in areas such as travel reservations, annual events like conventions, unemployment insurance, one year insurance policies, and auto registrations.
-- Kevin (firstname.lastname@example.org), December 21, 1998.
The Treasury Dept. doesn't like computer problems. Poor widdle babes. This little one has them in a tizzy, not even Y2K related, but makes an interesting article:
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-- Leska (email@example.com), December 21, 1998.
1/1/99 will come and go without any catastrophes. no one will notice a thing. I think the shit wont hit the fan until july or august. hang on to your hats!
-- ed (firstname.lastname@example.org), December 25, 1998.
"1/1/99 will come and go without any catastrophes. no one will notice a thing. I think the shit wont hit the fan until july or august. hang on to your hats!"
Ed, I tend to disagree, based on what I've been reading and problems that have already been surfacing over the last couple of months or so - the so-call "Jo Anne" effect.
The thing is, if company A hits problems on Jan 1st., they may not be noticed for even a month or two when reports start looking screwy, complaints from users or whatever. The other point is, why would company A publicise that yes, we've screwed up, we are so far behind with our y2k project we're already in trouble with one year to go.... Won't do much for the stock price will it.
Look for a lot of CYA going on, stuff that leaks out will either only be so severe as to be impossible to hide, or anecdotal from customers or company insiders (whistle-blowers).
And I agree with you, it will be a wild ride next year as y2k events gather apace.
Add in politics, the world economy, and the unknown factor (cyber terrorism? - already hit MCI last week...) and it's anyones guess how things will play out...
-- Andy (2000EOD@prodigy.net), December 25, 1998.
Thanks to all who answered,
I appreciate it. Testing is almost as scarey as the actual event it seems. Maybe the general public should have to be notified when major testing is being done. I'd hate to get stuck on an elevator or somesuch if a company is testing while I'm there.
Thanks for input
-- Moore Dinty moore (email@example.com), December 25, 1998.
99 just around the corner, more & more "computer glitch" mentions in the news, but they don't say why (not that I know why, but know there's an increase):
ALASKA AIRLINES GETS TAKEAN FOR RIDE
Alaska Airlines estimates that 100 free tickets for a Portland to Palm Springs flight were issued in error. For some reason, a computer reservations system used by some travel agencies posted a zero fare for the route. The airline corrected the error about two hours after the problem began. Alaska representatives have attempted to intercept the passengers at the airports in Portland and Palm Springs and either bill them or collect the full fare from them. Airline spokesman Jack Evans says travel agents tried to take advantage of an error, and some of the passengers wanted to get something for nothing, and were irritated when asked to pay their fare. And some passengers evidently were able to get away with it, making the round trip without any questions.
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-- Leska (firstname.lastname@example.org), December 26, 1998.
*Giggle* This one's a keeper ;-D
12/26/98 -- 11:53 AM, AP
Car Computer Navigator Forgets To Mention Ferry
POTSDAM, Germany (AP) - A German couple out for a Christmas drive near Berlin ended up in a river - apparently because their luxury car's computer forgot to mention they had to wait for a ferry.
The 57-year-old driver and his passenger were not injured in the accident, police said Saturday.
Several companies sell computer navigators, some of which are attached to dashboards and serve as electronic road maps. Some offer traffic updates and Internet connections.
The German couple was out driving Friday night when they came to a ferry crossing at the Havel River in Caputh, six miles from Berlin. That information, however, was never stored in the satellite-steered navigation system they were using, police said. The driver kept going straight in the dark, expecting a bridge, and ended up in the water. River traffic was stopped for two hours while the car was fished out about 13 feet from the river bank.
``You can't always blindly rely on technology,'' a coast guard police officer said.
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-- Leska (email@example.com), December 26, 1998.
Doesn't take long after power goes down for a state of emergency to be declared:
Saturday December 26, 7:37 AM (EST)
States Of Emergency Declared In Virginia
RICHMOND, Va., Dec. 26 (UPI S) _ Virginia Power says (Saturday) the number of residents without electricity has dropped slightly, as 14 cities and counties south and east of Richmond have declared states of emergency. Rick Zeurcher, a spokesman for the company, says 224,200 customers most in central and eastern Virginia were without power. Despite 1,000 linemen working throughout Christmas Day power was restored to less than 6,000 customers.
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-- Leska (firstname.lastname@example.org), December 26, 1998.
With all the added work from y2k glitches/and just normal glitches....and alittle weather related problems to boot...don't you think this will slow down the progress on actual y2k repairs????? Many boost of making great progress in last few months...but that rate cannot be expected to continue if they have to keep stopping to work on other problems.
-- Moore Dinty moore (email@example.com), December 26, 1998.