CSPAN2: Year 2000 Computer Problem (Dec 15, 1998)

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Just finished watching the 2 hour CSPAN2 coverage tape of the The Year 2000 Computer Problem conference held December 15, 1998 and sponsored by the Washington Post and George Washington University.

The speakers were:

Each gave a breif 5-10 minute opening speech, then the floor was opened for questions.

Mr Guedes (pronounced similar to 'geddies') was a bit interesting. You'll find him a bit boring but he explains why Latin America cannot be especially concerned about Y2K. He reveals his true colors during the question session. His thinking is quite narrow and revolves (not surprisingly) around banking. The larger issues seem to escape him.

Mr Uncapher is a bit more informed but trying desparately to prevent panic.

Jim Lord's opening speech was a good introduction to the Y2K problem. But his performance during the question and answer session was a real treat. He got right to the heart of the matter on the banking issue (in challenging an assertion by Mr. Guedes) -- hint: he's very well informed on the fractional reserve banking issue. On other issues as well he pulled no punches. Three stars to Jim Lord.

Stuart Umpleby, gave a very clear '10,000-foot view' of Y2K from a management perspective and why many people are unable to take the larger view of things. During the question and answer session he actually advocates people moving to small towns.

But it was Professor Paula Gordon who stole the show. She's smart, well informed and she sees the 100,000-foot 'societal consequences' view. And this women is scared to death. Her presentation, though a bit trembling and nervous, was phenomenal. She see's and she understands. Her criticism of the government's lack of response and why this is a real problem was right on target. If more people in our government took her seriously and implemented her ideas, it would go a long way towards mitigating disaster. Unfortunately, the time for doing so is just about gone. She's apparently just released a 2-part white paper on Y2K out on the GSA site - I'll try to track it down and post the link here.

The question and answer session is great - a well informed audience.

There's no De Jager style "we've turned the corner'. There's no unsubstanciated optimism (except from Mr Guedes who seems to be a very nice man so may be forgiven his sin). This is hard hitting stuff from some very knowledgable folks.

Bottom line: It's going to be bad. Get prepared now. Period.

This 2-hour program should be on your must see list. I'd give it 4 stars overall in terms of revealing our true current Y2K status.

-Arnie

-- Arnie Rimmer (Arnie_Rimmer@usa.net), December 17, 1998

Answers

Here's the link to Paula Gordon's white paper:

http://www.itpolicy.gsa.gov/mks/yr2000/y2kconf/papers/paper64fp.h tm

-Arnie

-- Arnie Rimmer (Arnie_Rimmer@usa.net), December 17, 1998.

And here also... the link to Paula Gordon's bio:

http://www.itpolicy.gsa.gov/mks/yr2000/y2kconf/bios/gordon.htm

-Arnie

-- Arnie Rimmer (Arnie_Rimmer@usa.net), December 17, 1998.

Arnie,

Thank you so very much.

When you wrote this, "But it was Professor Paula Gordon who stole the show. She's smart, well informed and she sees the 100,000-foot 'societal consequences' view. And this women is scared to death. Her presentation, though a bit trembling and nervous, was phenomenal."

I got chills and felt like breaking down. That rollercoaster just wont let me off.

Thanks again Arnie.

Mike =================================================================

-- Michael Taylor (mtdesign3@aol.com), December 17, 1998.

Great write-up Arnie, thanks for the links too. Would you have any idea if it is planned to repeat the show?

-- Andy (2000EOD@prodigy.net), December 17, 1998.
Thanks so much Arnie. I'm rather new to this site, and this is just the kind of information I was hoping to find. I too am interested in a rerun. gilda

-- gilda jessie (jess@listbot.com), December 17, 1998.
There is a link, courtesy of mebs, on the Anyone see tonights Y2K show on CSPAN-2 thread for those of you who want to check if/when it will be rebroadcast.

Arnie: Home Run. I watched the tape last night also and had similar thoughts to yours about the conference.

-- Rob Michaels (sonofdust@net.com), December 17, 1998.

One other thing: There will be another conference next month - which was announced at the very end of this show. My tape cut off just before this but I think it was set for January 27, 1999.

Arnie, can you confirm this date for the next show?

-- Rob Michaels (sonofdust@net.com), December 17, 1998.

Does anyone have a complete tape of the show from which you could make a good copy? I don't have access to CNN (or any other satellite broadcasts for that matter...). A program like this one sounds like it would be a valuable addition to the collection of educational tools.

Thanks!

Dan

-- Dan (DanTCC@Yahoo.com), December 17, 1998.

Arnie, Somehow I still can't get alarmed about embedded chips failing. Especially when the "experts" say that nuclear weapons are at risk. This is so not true. A y2k failure could not cause a weapons launch of any kind. There is .00000001% probability that this could happen. Even I could accept that a y2k failure will force a blip on the radar screen showing incoming missiles. The failure would have to continue to update the blip and make many more blips from precise locations where there are known missiles. In addition this y2k failure would also need to produce authentication codes for launch. It would have to tell the President to give the order to launch. It would speak for the President and give the order to launch officers. It would have to put keys in the hands of the two missile office needing to turn the keys to launch. Somehow I can't believe that y2k is THAT powerful. It's mind boggling how you alarmists can make up these kinds of scenarios not knowing anything about which you speak.

Maria

-- Maria (anon@ymous.com), December 17, 1998.

# # # 19981217

Maria:

It's the "dead" weapons repositories that the Feds ( DoD ) were LYING about, not launch!

The systems used to monitor ( i.e., detect leaks, et al ) ARE NOT COMPLIANT -- they FALSIFIED REPORTS to the effect that they were compliant!

If power goes out, on top of this scenario, RADIATION, ( REAL NASTY ) CHEMICAL AGENTS, ET AL, could leak into the environment. ( Remember Saddam, Desert Storm? )

Pay attention to the details, folks. We're not getting many, admittedly. But that detail was even in the USA Today article! They will probably "leak" out slowly; then, GUSH!

Regards, Bob Mangus # # #

-- Robert Mangus (rmangus@mail.netquest.com), December 17, 1998.

I thought I read about six months ago about two nuclear weapons being taken offline and computers tested. The results of the tests were one weapon was dead, but the other one lauched......Could be wrong, but don't think so.

-- Jolann (Jolann.Leifer@PSS.boeing.com), December 17, 1998.
For addition information on the nuclear weapons concerns, see:

http://www.herald.ns.ca/cgi-bin/home/displaystory?1998/12/12+326.raw +World

-Arnie

-- Arnie Rimmer (arnie_rimmer@usa.net), December 17, 1998.

Hey Bob, I'm specifically talking about the link to Paula Gordon's white paper that Arnie pointed to. "There's a real risk through that we could see the sort of computer malfunctions that we've seen in previous years, where the command and control systems erroneously report that an attack is in progress; erroneously direct missiles to shoot at the wrong target; and at a minimum, cause all of the countries to put their missiles on much higher levels of alert, because they're concerned about their unreliable warning systems." Sorry I didn't make that clear. But that's the type of misinformation that's going around. Y2K will not present the same malfunctions that we've seen in previous years. It just doesn't work that way.

Maria

-- Maria (anon@ymous.com), December 17, 1998.

I read recently that DOD (US) has proposed to the Russians that each country maintain staff in the other's command/control centers to reduce the likelihood of precisely the misunderstandings mentioned here. Good idea, I say.

I've watched a few of these things go off relatively close to me (Nevada Test Site, Operation Teapot, 1955-56). These were small shots, 15 to 50 Kt, but even one of them would be one too many.

-- Tom Carey (tomcarey@mindspring.com), December 17, 1998.

Yes, I too got them giving January 27 as the date of broadcast of the next meeting.

Anyone know how to get CSPAN schedules in advance? The site seems to give "today's schedule" but not tomorrow, next week, etc.

-- D B Spence (dbspence@usa.net), December 17, 1998.

Do we suddenly have another Maria coming out of lurking mode? If not, she's a troll. See e-mail address.

-- Maria (encelia@mailexcite.com), December 17, 1998.
Excellent recap of this fascinating C-Span presenatation.Yes Prof Gordon stood out.She bluntly said this was the greatest challenge to civilization peiod.Her crediblity was obvious.It made me feel good that the media is waking up now .Better late than never.Gordon was obviously frustrated that denial is rampant and that leadership is lacking.She skewered business for creating a false optimistic outlook.This progam is a must see for the Yourdon audience.Wish the world could get it now but humans tend to ignore bad news unless it is in their immediate path.

-- Dennis Chornomaz (Dchorno@aol.com), December 17, 1998.
D B Spence: Thanks for the confirmation. Mark the calendar folks.

-- Rob Michaels (sonofdust@net.com), December 17, 1998.
Arnie, I spent the week out east..was channel surfing when I came across the cspan progam-year 2000 problem. I couldn't believe it! Watched the whole thing then called down for a 2:30 am wakeup call and watched it again. I agree that P Gordon really hit hard. And yes, I wrote down the Jan 27 date for the next update. It was presented by the Washington Post newspaper I believe. I couldn't wait to get home to check the forum to see everyone's take on the coverage. You did a good job.

-- More Dinty Moore (Not @this time.com), December 17, 1998.
Appreciate the comments about the CSpan 2 Y2K program. It was something of a surprise because most of us weren't aware CSpan was going to be there until we arrived at the meeting.

Paula Gordon is a Y2K Warrior. Be sure to read her white paper. Her email is pgordon@erols.com. I'm sure she would appreciate the encouragement.

Regards,

Jim Lord

-- Jim Lord (jimlordy2k@aol.com), December 18, 1998.

The C-SPAN2 schedule seems to indicate that they're not replaying the conference as of today (Friday). *sigh* Could I prevail on someone for a copy? Will reimburse, of course. TANSTAAFL.

-- Mac (sneak@lurk.com), December 18, 1998.
Mac, See if you can email cspan and ask them how to get a copy,or if they are going to replay it.

-- More Dinty Moore (Not @this time.com), December 18, 1998.
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