Cost Projection- comments pleasegreenspun.com : LUSENET : TimeBomb 2000 (Y2000) : One Thread
Cost/profit analysis: Note: all figures are in US dollars.
Property: $55,000 (land and structure)
Food: $8,000 (1 year's supply for four people)
Guns/ammunition $750 (two shotguns and plenty of ammo)
Security (other): $1,000 (razor wire/fence, MAYBE motion detectors.)
Manuals: $150 (The SAS survival guide, some kind of "how to be your own doctor" book.)
Medical: $200 (A first-aid kit with all the bells and whistles.)
Communications: $500 (shortwave radio and scanner)
Total raw expenses: $70,600
Sale price: $96,000
Gross profit: $25,400.
1) The per-sale "property" expense could decrease if we buy a large acreage and then subdivide it. This would also have the benefit of providing our customers with guaranteed good neighbours (other customers).
2) This is the basic package only, and assumes adequately arable (non-desert) land. It would probably be viable to buy significantly cheaper land in the desert, although this would make the places harder to "bug out" to. It would also be less pleasant to live in.
3) Being the basic package, a whole line of optional upgrades will be available.
-- Leo (firstname.lastname@example.org), December 14, 1998
1) Probably ought to include a fuel storage tank for the generator in the basic package.
2) Re: security -- Is the structure (and aforementioned storage tank) fire-proof? It's been pointed out that fire arrows are a low-cost, easily-manufactured weapon for marauders.
-- No Spam Please (email@example.com), December 14, 1998.
It's probably too late to start a money-making venture at this point. What will probably be the first noticeable Y2K failures are only three weeks away. Have you already gotten a firm commitment from financial backers?
You need toilet paper, tuna and matches yourself. You may not have time to prepare for others in addition to your own preparation.
-- Kevin (firstname.lastname@example.org), December 14, 1998.
Kevin, that is one of the documents I intend to use in obtaining financial backing.
A crisis is the same as an opportunity, as far as I'm concerned. I don't think I'm going to be in a lot of personal danger -Australia is a comparatively safe place, I'm buying a small amount of food every week (just $5-10 worth of canned stuff), and I know a number of people with holiday homes that could be used as bug-out locations. So I can afford to take advantage of the massive capitalistic opportunity that this offers.
Besides, I'll be in the States next year anyway (if TS will HTF, I can fly back in Dec 99). This is the only way that I can think of to make a shitload of money, enough to get myself a viable retreat plan in the US.
Oh, and I like profits ;)
-- Leo (email@example.com), December 15, 1998.
Just one other thing. It's pretty much a given that the stock market will crash by August 1999. Or, it could crash next week or in January 1999.
Would a stock market crash motivate or impoverish your potential customers? What if banks quit lending money sometime in 1999 because of fear that Y2K will trash the economy and they won't get paid back? Have your potential customers already cashed out of the system?
Timing is everything.
-- Kevin (firstname.lastname@example.org), December 15, 1998.
1) $750 doesn't leave much ammunition for the 2 $300 reliable shotguns.
2) $200 doesn't quite scratch the surface for first aid kit with the whistles (Dynamed Medic Full kit was $399 five years ago and it didn't include iv admin or fluids, or invasive care drugs, or analgesics, antibiotics, hypnotics, etc. ALL of which you would need.)
3) recheck the prices on the short wave radio. If you want a multi band transceiver (2m, 440, and HF) you are talking $1800-$2500 for a reliable, useful piece of equipment with the type of capabilities you will need
-- Chuck a night driver (email@example.com), December 15, 1998.
I would reconsider the $5000 generator. After a year of use, and a huge tank of fuel, you'll likely be out of luck. Got enough spare parts?
Get a small solar setup. I spent a little over $5k, and now have a setup that will pump my water, (household use), and will provide enough power for lighting, and communications use. It'll be useful for 20+ years, even if Y2k proves to be less severe than we think. I used a Ni-Cad battery bank that'll likely still provide power storage in 2020.
$750 is paltry for 2 guns and ammunition. Get 2 rifles (Mini-14 or AR-15), and lay in a couple thousand rounds each. A .22 rifle or .22 conversion unit for the rifles will be extremely useful too.
Your food costs seem rather high. Are you buying freezedried food or something? I could likely feed 4 people for a year for half that cost or less.
-- Bill (firstname.lastname@example.org), December 18, 1998.
$5000 is for power. If solar is better and still affordable, good. I'll use solar.
Guns, I'd like to hope, will be a peace-of-mind thing anyway.
The food: I intend the first month to be better food, more expensive but more tasty. The next 11 months will be typical survivalist stuff.
-- Leo (email@example.com), December 18, 1998.
You are not going to get much land and/or structure for $55,000 in the US... And if your structure is going to be that compact/small you will not need $5,000 worth of generator. We got one for $1,200 and it will run our 2,000 sq ft. house + ...
-- Carlie (firstname.lastname@example.org), December 18, 1998.