Bobbi started an important thread on the alertsend predictions, but nobody answered. Not wishing to be a pollyanna, but I think we are overloading the capacity of the y2k bug. Remove references to "y2k" and in over half of these predictions, you have situations that have happened, or could easily happened without y2k, even all simultaneously, WITHOUT it being the death of Western Civ. Below, I've ordered the 14 or so "routine" disasters ahead of the relatively few substantive predictions.

-RC

AIRPLANES: There will be at least one mid-air collision or landing / taking off accident (already happened)

MILITARY FORCES: Military forces will indeed be walking the streets of at least one U.S. city before the Summer of 2000 (already happened in LA riots)

WATER: At least one municipality in the United States will fail to operate correctly (already happened, see North site, not y2k related)

DOMESTIC TERRORISM: At least one deadly act of terrorism will take place on U.S. soil or at a U.S. base overseas (already happened)

NUCLEAR POWER: At least one nuclear power plant will be shut down (happened)

OIL: Supplies and deliveries of oil will be disrupted. Prices of gasoline will rise. (happened)

MEDICAL EQUIPMENT: There will be multiple deaths from failures of medical equipment. (happened)

ELECTRICITY: Power outages will affect at least ten cities in the United States. (happened)

MARCH 1999 DEADLINE: In March, multiple federal agencies will announce they have achieved compliance. In the following year, at least half of them will experience Y2K-related problems they didn't expect. (happening now)

CASH WITHDRAWALS: New limits will be placed on either the withdrawing of cash or the use of cash in transactions. (likely, but not TEOTWAWKI)

FIREARMS: Firearms sales will increase dramatically in the Summer or Fall of 1999, and the FBI's new Instant-Check system will be tremendously overloaded. (likely to happen, but not TEOTWAWKI)

AUTOMOBILES: Some automobiles will be unable to run correctly. (happened)

UNEMPLOYMENT: Before the end of 2000, thanks to Y2K-related company failures, unemployment will exceed 12%. (is this TEOTWAWKI? In Europe many countries have twice this rate of unemployment)

TRAINS: The running of trains will be disrupted for at least three days in some areas, causing expensive delivery delays and disrupting industry. (similar to UPS strike in effect)

ECONOMY: By the end of 2000, the U.S. economy will be in a recession (at minimum). (happened)

INTERNET: Some segments of the Internet will stay up, but telecommunications failures will bring it down in many areas. (if internet's still up that's not teotwawki)

PRISONS: At least one prison riot , causing several deaths. (happened many times)

TRAFFIC LIGHTS: In at least one major city, traffic light disruptions will cause gridlock. (happens every winter)

NUCLEAR MELTDOWN: There will *not* be a nuclear core meltdown in the United States, although there *will* be one outside the United States before the end of 2000. (happened)

********** zone of TEOTWAWKI *********************

STOCK MARKET: The Dow will drop well below 6000, due, in part, to Y2K fears and Y2K-related company failures. The failure of Japanese banks will also play an important role in the falling U.S. stock market

FOOD: Food supplies will be threatened in many areas, and the National Guard or the Red Cross will be needed to deliver emergency food supplies.

NATIONAL EMERGENCY: The President will declare a national emergency

911: Multiple 911 systems will fail across the country, and in at least one city, riots will result.

BANK RUNS: Bank runs will begin but will be halted by aggressive action from the Fed, Congress and the White House.

DEFENSE: The Dept. of Defense will suffer massive communications failures.

PANIC BUYING: Panic buying of supplies will be in full swing by November of 1999. Sam's Club will see record sales of canned goods, and generators will be difficult to find.

-- Runway Cat (runway_cat@hotmail.com), December 13, 1998

Answers

As usual, another interesting thought RC. While it is true that many of these failures have precedence, I think that there are several things which are major wild cards that make Y2K unprecedented. First, it is the matter of degree for simultaneous failures in both number and disruptive potential that argues 'this time it's different'. Also, how people react is going to be dependent on many variables but will play a very important part in the whole scene. This affects the entire world, as you know, which also makes Y2K different than localized disasters. Factor in the Domino effect, risks of infection for network interfaced 'fixed' systems, remediated code with residual bugs, and about 40 Billion embedded chips that can't possibly be individually tested (which is what is required) and you have the potential for something we haven't seen before. Even if only 1% of these chips fail, if they were dollars, I wouldn't mind having them. So while I would like to believe that it won't be that bad, I have not found any evidence to support it. If anything, I have grown more and more concerned with each passing month as the mounting evidence indicates the increasing potential severity and ubiquitousness of Y2K while time rushes by.

-- Rob Michaels (sonofdust@net.com), December 13, 1998.

RC: your post underscores an important point: We have disasters during best of times. What should we expect in the middle of the biggest economic disaster of all time, the impending 1999 global financial crisis, when many systems of all companies of all industries in all countries of the Earth experience multiple, simultaneous, systemic failure?

Remember, Y2K is not like a computer disease inflicting several computers; its a genetic defect that is spread among most of them.

-- a (a@a.a), December 13, 1998.

I've been thinking a lot about gasoline and oil since we just got back from our 10 day vacation. We drove from Texas to Colorado and back using different routes each way. Most of our recent vacations have been by air, so it has been awhile since I spent so much time on our busy Interstates. I was blown away by the number of trucks crossing our nation. (Especially I-40!) Right now the price of diesel is cheap. At a Love's Truck Stop in Oklahoma it was under .70 cents a gallon! As we've discussed on this forum before, approximately 57% of our oil is imported. Even if we can still get oil from Canada and Mexico after 2000, (and process it into gasoline,) we are going to be in a "world of hurt" due to the lack of readiness in the other countries we import from. I know that eventually the problems will get taken care of, but even if Y2K is just a "bump in the road" for the US, the price of gasoline is bound to go up (supply and demand.) When gas prices go up, guess what else goes up? Play a little game with "trickle down" economics. My predictions? Almost everything (as in: supplies) you can purchase NOW will save you money in the long run. Shortages? That's another story...

-- Gayla Dunbar (privacy@please.com), December 13, 1998.

Unemployment of 12%.

If we achieved that level here, the government in power would probably win the next four elections on that alone.

-- Leo (leo_champion@hotmail.com), December 13, 1998.

I predict the reds will invade and rape all our chicks and take all our drugs and flush them down the dunnycann!!

ps dunny is australian for toilet, did you know that? it is a cool word huh?

dunny dunny dunny dunny dunny dunny dunny dunny dunny dunny dunny dunny dunny dunny dunny dunny dunny dunny dunny dunny dunny dunny dunny dunny dunny dunny dunny dunny dunny dunny dunny dunny dunny dunny dunny dunny dunny dunny dunny dunny dunny dunny dunny dunny dunny dunny dunny dunny dunny dunny dunny dunny dunny dunny dunny dunny dunny dunny dunny dunny dunny dunny dunny dunny dunny dunny dunny dunny dunny dunny dunny dunny dunny dunny dunny dunny dunny dunny dunny dunny dunny dunny dunny dunny dunny dunny dunny dunny dunny dunny dunny dunny dunny dunny dunny dunny dunny dunny dunny dunny dunny dunny dunny dunny dunny dunny dunny dunny dunny dunny dunny dunny dunny dunny dunny dunny dunny dunny dunny dunny dunny dunny dunny dunny dunny dunny dunny dunny dunny dunny dunny dunny dunny dunny dunny dunny dunny dunny dunny dunny dunny dunny dunny dunny dunny dunny dunny dunny dunny dunny dunny dunny dunny dunny dunny dunny dunny dunny dunny dunny dunny dunny dunny dunny dunny dunny dunny dunny dunny dunny dunny dunny dunny dunny dunny dunny dunny dunny dunny dunny dunny dunny dunny dunny dunny dunny dunny dunny dunny dunny dunny dunny dunny dunny dunny dunny dunny dunny dunny dunny dunny dunny dunny dunny dunny dunny dunny dunny dunny dunny dunny dunny dunny dunny dunny dunny

done ey

hehehe

dunny dunny dunny dunny dunny dunny dunny dunny dunny dunny dunny dunny dunny dunny dunny dunny dunny dunny dunny dunny dunny dunny dunny dunny dunny

-- jerry (jj@j.jj), December 13, 1998.

RC,

I think you missed a few :-)

STOCK MARKET (50%): The failure of Japanese banks will also play an important role in the falling U.S. stock market (happened)

FOOD: Food supplies will be threatened in many areas, and the National Guard or the Red Cross will be needed to deliver emergency food supplies. (happened - hurricane zones)

NATIONAL EMERGENCY: The President will declare a national emergency (already happened, multiple times, multiple administrations)

Yeah, that list of 26 predictions was pretty wimpy.

-- No Spam Please (anon@ymous.com), December 13, 1998.

Very interesting, Bobbi, but do you think that we will all know what's happening everywhere? How will we if there's no electricity, or at least outages regularly, here and there? Thus no TV or radio, possibly no newspapers printed, or magazines, etc. It would be interesting to hear from seniors who lived without electricity, phones, newspapers, etc. What was it like? I'm a senior who grew up in Chicago; we always had electricity, water, a coal furnace. But, somehow we survived without telephones, radios, and even TV! There was a certain "innocence" in living without having the daily murder and mayhem report shown live in your "parlor!" Will we be back in the "good old days?"

-- Holly Allen (Holly3325@juno.com), December 13, 1998.

RC Interesting post again.

BUT, what you have done is provide a disconnect. I agree that each of these events HAS happened, and that it was NOT TEOTWAWKI.

I would submit that in the near future (about a year and a few days) we will experience more than one of each of the above.

While one of each, spread out over a reasonable time is NOT a LARGE problem, if you start to increase the number of occurrences of each, plus increase the distribution of these across the events listed, in a very short time (measured in hours as opposed to years) you find the societal fragility we have been referring to.

Chuck

-- Chuck a night driver (rienzoo@en.com), December 13, 1998.

Holly said - >Very interesting, Bobbi, but do you think that we will all know >what's happening everywhere? How will we if there's no electricity,

I just posted the predictions from Y2k News Wire for general interest. I agree with previous posters that some of these things will probably happen anyway, Y2k or no Y2k. The predictions *are* rather vague and generalized. I just thought it would be interesting to keep them in mind over the next year.

As for keeping in touch post-Y2k; I don't know. Hubby and I have discussed this endlessly. I guess we will just have to wait and see what actually happens. We are getting a shortwave radio. I am sure some of the hams will be talkin' out there.

Yes, I too have lived without electricity, utilities, etc. We lived in our camp for three years. We got teased without mercy because my hubby works in a power plant making electricity and there we were, living off the grid "like hippies", or so everyone would comment. LOL! But that camp was our *nest egg* and now it is being bought on a land contract and we are getting payments every month for it. So, it served it's purpose at the time.

I must say that living like that has it's benefits. It's quiet and peaceful. It drew us closer together. We talked more. We enjoyed the simple things in life and it seemed like life had more meaning back then. We weren't side-tracked by all the *stuff* as we are now. :-) Another thing I noticed is that when I was just sitting in the house reading or something, it was so QUIET. Total quiet. No motors running, no fans kicking in, no fridge humming, no nothing. Funny how we adapt isn't it? Now that silence would probably bug me (until I adapted to it again that is).

I miss it but I don't. I miss the solitude and the beauty of the woods, but I like my electronic toys too.

Anyway, not to get off-thread. I think whatever happens in a year, it's too global and too large and too unknown to even begin to predict what the results will be. I just thought their predictions were interesting, that's all.

Bobbi Check out the newly revamped Y2k information site! http://www.buzzbyte.com/

-- Bobbi (volfnat@northweb.com), December 13, 1998.

Seems to me ham radio operators might start to think about setting up a cooperative effort to distribute information -- every xmtr has limited range (depending on power, local weather, condition of the ionosphere) but most xmtrs will be able to reach at least one ham receiver. Ought to work -- if the rigs work...

-- Tom Carey (tomcarey@mindspring.com), December 14, 1998.