What we've been missing is good, solid evidence and arguments to show why the extremists are wrong. The following website may be just what many have been yearning for: www.visit.internet2000-plc.com (scroll halfway down the page to see the pertinent info). Wish I'd known this months ago! I will still prepare for disruptions, but not for collapse, major chaos, or TEOTWAWKI! (P.S. All who disagree, don't bother with name-calling or sarcastic blather. Any response that does not give solid facts or evidence will be disregarded.)

-- Carol Pennington (verbatim@mci2000.com), December 07, 1998

Answers

Keep in mind when viewing Internet 2000 UK's site at www.visit.internet2000-plc.com that it is primarily a sales pitch for their products, not a general Y2K information site.

-- No Spam Please (anon@ymous.com), December 07, 1998.

Carol ". The following website may be just what many have been yearning for".......

Yes, we are all yearning for a non-event.

Get real.

The fact that there are several web sites out there that preach an upbeat viewpoint is laudible.

My problem with them however is that they are literally *unbelievable* to anyone who has studied the facts, studied the economics, studied the whole gamut of y2k remediation, studied the woeful percantageges of +any+ programming projects that +ever+ finish on time.

I repeat again:-

"many have been yearning for"

If it 'twere that easy.......

-- Andy (andy_rowland@msn.com), December 07, 1998.

"Any response that does not give solid facts or evidence will be disregarded."

Hmm, after reviewing the site......and some of the other works turned out by the same company......I have to ask, "What solid facts or evidence have they presented to show that Y2K isn't going to be a major problem? None -- just unsupported claims.

1. They have claimed that most of the money spent on remediation has been wasted: all that's needed is to reset the computers in 2000. This claim simply is totally ignorant of either the mainframe or embedded system environment. It's something that will work well in a non-connected desktop environment, providing the software will work. In other words, they address only the stand-a-lone desktop BIOS issue and then extrapolate everything else to that environment.

2. Many of their links, at the bottom of the site, are directed toward refuting Gary North. The argument appears to be that Y2K is soley a figment of the GN imagination, and if North's religious views can be exposed to the light of day, Y2K will go away. North latched onto the Y2K issue before anyone else (except Peter de Jager) and has ridden it well. However, he's not the cause of Y2K: bad code is. And, by the way, you don't fix bad code by resetting the computer -- only by changing the code. North just happens to be the most vocal (and one of the most pessimistic) of the number of people who believe that Y2K will be bad.

3. Finally, this company.......and it is a commercial venture, I believe.....also has something to sell. Most websites exist to put forward some view. That's why I like this forum. I may disagree with many on the severity of the problem, but the people who post here aren't trying to sell me something (Well, most of them aren't, anyway.)

4. Finally, if you're looking for someone to tell you that Y2K won't be serious, just continue listening to John Koskinen. That appear to be what you're seeking, comfort and solace. Repeat after him, "it won't be worse than a snow job, er...snow fall, it won't be..... I've looked at too many 10Q reports over the last month to be impressed, and until I see a marked change, I will keep charging ahead.

Actually, I'm in the process of putting together a food cooperative for my church and community, so if you don't bother preparing too much, there will be more for us, so, welcome aboard.

-- rocky (rknolls@hotmail.com), December 07, 1998.

Rocky - I would take issue on the following:-

"North just happens to be the most vocal (and one of the most pessimistic".......

I would say "realistic", whoaahh, let me say that again "realistic" - the guy may be a raving ultra/christian/rapture etc. etc, chappie, but he has a handle without a shadow of a doubt on the "big picture" - do your own research...

Like the X-Files "The Truth Is Out There" - isn't it, agent Muldaur???

-- Andy (andy_rowland@msn.com), December 07, 1998.

Carol, I looked at your "don't miss this" site very carefully. I suggest you do the same and question some of the assertions. For example, corporations are downsizing because of the "unnecessary" expense of Y2K hype. Or, for desktop computers, "all" their Y2K problems can be solved by "Natural Time Progression" - just turn them off and back on at the rollover. (This is an outright lie! I say LIE because anyone knowledgeable about PC's, and BIOS programming, knows it is patently false to say this about "all" PCs.) This site is as extreme as GN. Its just in the opposite direction. However, they will be happy to sell you some software to solve your "odd two digit problem".

Now think about this Carol. AT&T, Citicorp, GM and the Department of Defense have access to the best and brightest software minds in the world. Why are they spending billions (with the numbers being pushed up rapidly)? Do you think they care what is said in this forum or in the media? I've been there Carol. I've written a lot of this software for these behemoths. They only care about function. And they are scared Carol. Very scared. A lot of code is going to fail and they know it. Ask yourself why geeks who normally only hunt twinkies at the Wawa and whose idea of enjoying the outdoors is a Star Trek screen saver are now buying camping equipment and weapons. We all want a minor bump in the road, but right now, a major Depression is the smallest bump I see.

-- RD. ->H (drherr@erols.com), December 07, 1998.

Here's what I got from the site--

---

Predicted Doom and Gloom What they say, is not always what they believe Computer Meltdown Planes Fall from the Sky Water and Electric and Gas Services disrupted Bank Machines Breakdown Traffic Lights go haywire Office Equipment stop functioning Lifts get stuck Production Line Failures Microwave oven cease to function Atomic Melt down Atomic War cause by computer and embedded system failure Whilst the old man with his billboard that states "Repent the End is Nigh" creates sniggers and much amusement from the crowd.

Equally this hysteria is very sad. The very people that make these shocking statements wish to take the money from your pocket (Including the old man who rattles his collection tin). Or they are of very low intelligence or follow the crowd of IT illiterate journalists, those that make money from Y2K seminars and speeches or use the Y2K problem to sell advertising space on the web. Also those that sell software to fix the Real Time Clock problem that only effects a computer when it switch off and can not possible access the Hardware fix application, Patch or TSR! Those that are worried please read the report on Natural Time Progression and see the light. Amen May your god go with you who every he or she maybe. (Article by Bob Johnson-Perkins submitted 23rd November 1998 as a message to Gary Norths religous raving lunitics and fringe groups and those that believe the Milennium bugs are sent from Hell)

http://www.visit.internet2000-plc.com/predict.html

---

The effect on the economy by Bob Johnson-Perkins The Effects of the Y2K problem on World economy.

The favorite pass time of economic journalist is to find some way to shock your socks off thats how they make their money. The latest trend over the past few years is to pretend that they are not just experts within field of economics but also Y2K IT experts, normally after reading the original theories of PDJ, KF and of course MY and a few other theorists. These news hounds and writers have flooded the Internet with such vigor its very hard to get a listing on the search engine under Y2K, Year 2000 or Millenniu. Some have even wrote novels on the subject. Unfortunately these ravenous cuckoos have in fact caused much damage already to the economy by their outrageous Millennium twaddle. The fact that many business have already spent enormous sums on upgrading and renewing equipment that was perfectly okay in the first place. The extra expense has already caused companies to down size their operations. This factor alone will possibly cause the unemployment figures to rise drastically within the next 12 months. If the present trend is allowed to continue we will indeed find the real horror of the Y2K problem is unemployment and deep recession. Businesses should be offered the quickest and cost effective way to find solutions to the Millennium Century Date Change problem, that of "Software", to find those odd items of code that relate to a 2 digit instead of a 4 digit year with the help of the software Manufacturers Millennium Compliant Declarations and of course the hoards of government trained Bug buster team of COBOL programmers ? Nicknamed in Great Britain as Tony Blairs Hidden Army (The Dole queue).

http://www.visit.internet2000-plc.com/economy.html

---

Since I'm not a computer expert, I must rely on the judgement of those who are. It depends upon who you trust to provide information on the ramifications of Y2K. I have no reason to suspect the motivations of for instance, Ed Yourdon or Capers Jones, who are widely recognized and respected authorities. (but I've never before heard of Bob Johnson-Perkins, who wrote the two articles above.) My take on the effects of Y2K is that major disruptions appear to be inevitable. With the world economic conditions being what they are, shaky to say the least, anything that seriously affects investor confidence will cause the markets to plunge. Compared with the conditions in 1929, we have farther to fall and less to cushion the landing.

-- Max Dixon (Ogden, Utah USA) (Max.Dixon@gte.net), December 07, 1998.

with the help of the software ......and of course the hoards of government trained Bug buster team of COBOL programmers ? Nicknamed in Great Britain as Tony Blairs Hidden Army (The Dole queue).

Of course I don't need to remind you that the number signed up is 35, I don't know how many of these are actually coding in productive employment as we speak.

-- Richard Dale (rdale@figroup.co.uk), December 07, 1998.

Does anyone else but me think that we ARE going to experience TEOTWAWKI precisely because of this rempant sort of psychology at work? Non techies read a website like this and latch on to it, not bothering to do their own in depth research (like reading archived threads on this forum before posting such non-sense, or questioning author's backgrounds and motives)? Management and decision makers tend to be on the non-techie side, who think they're too busy to do in-depth research and thinking. Important work is NOT being done, sence of urgency needed is NOT there because of this psychology.

It just hit me that it's the same old psychology that helped getting us in this mess to begin with.

-- Chris (catsy@pond.com), December 07, 1998.

"North just happens to be the most vocal (and one of the most pessimistic".......

Andy, that statement is true!

You may consider North to be realistic, or you may consider him to be flaming idiot, but he the most vocal and pessimistic of those speaking out on Y2K. (Or at least those who have wide audiences. I don't consider Paul Milne or Infomagic to have wide audiences :-))

My point was that a lot of people attempt to downplay how bad Y2K will be by attacking North. I don't think that you disagree with this. Destroy the messenger, and you don't have to listen to the message.

Second point: Y2K exists with or without North. He doesn't determine the severity of the problem. The broken code does, and the referenced web site pays no attention to the real problem. All North does is call attention to the problem.

-- rocky (rknolls@hotmail.com), December 07, 1998.

Chris - no - I agree with you to a certain extent - the whole issue, to my way of thinking, is so extremely complicated and inter-related. I am *not* necessarily even talking about code; in many aspects in '99 I believe that bad code could be the least of our problems.

There is still a lot of Egyptian Logic out there, especially amongst the ass-lickers (sorry, brown-nosers), suits, no-nothings, I've run out of superlatives.......

With these clowns in charge, it is a fait accompli.

Egyptian Logic = DENIAL = De Nile bro!

-- Andy (andy_rowland@msn.com), December 07, 1998.

I just looked at the /predict.html article and give it little credibility because it contains so many grammatical and spelling errors.

-- fly . (.@...), December 07, 1998.

Rocky - I think you misunderstood, or I did, or vice versa, anyhoos, Gary North *is* pessimistic...... I agree totally,... what *I'm* saying is that I believe his pessimistic view is *realistic*...

No one else out there is telling it the way it is !!! Gary is !!!

What does GORE have to say (never mind "that woman", that misogynist toe-rag in charge) - didley-squat - no offence to Bo!!!

Gazza doesn't pull any punches, not swayed by purported "experts" from MIT (that no-nothing prof. (small caps.)) last week on 60 minutes, for example...

What is going down now is quite simply Government versus The People, in the greatest mass psychology experiment ever.

Make notes, folks.

If I see you five years down the road I'll be asking questions:-)

-- Andy (andy_rowland@msn.com), December 07, 1998.

Ms. Carol: I read through the website you referenced. I found no refutation of the "systems problem" what Gary North, Yardeni, etc claim is the BIG OR MAJOR PROBLEM. Until someone (experts) prove to me there will not be a systems problem I shall continue to prepare for the worst. It is truly amazing, each and every person or organization I talk to claim their "Individual" computers are compliant, but when I ask the question is the system you are attached to compliant no one knows or even tries to answer. This is particularly true of the banks and electric companies. Remember the old strings of Xmas tree lights "when One goes All go."

-- HAK (hakoelli@netdoor.com), December 07, 1998.

At last!!!!! Somebody has got it !!!!!!!

Mr. Hak, you are a scholar, sir!

-- Andy (andy_rowland@msn.com), December 07, 1998.

Carol,

If these guys think all you have to do is turn the PC's off and back on again, tell them to come ride with us for a couple of weeks. When we test and cause networks to fail and databases to crumble, I'll let them turn them off and back on to show me what I've been missing. Actually, that would be a pretty good trick. Then everybody in the computer field could make a killing by charging for flipping the ON/OFF switch; rather than bothering to actually fix something for a fee.

Chris,

I don't know if it's going to be a meltdown or not. I can tell you that if the attitudes of the people (business owners) we meet are typical, there will be a huge portion of the problem untouched at the turn of the century.

On that note: To all people working in the computer industry on Y2K. Don't forget, this weekend the meeting is at my house to come up with Plan B on how we can fool all these people into paying us even greater fortunes. They're starting to catch on to our game. Bring your own chair because I'm expecting something like a few million to turn out.

-- Greg Sugg (gregsugg@bbnp.com), December 07, 1998.

Carol,

Hope is always a welcome emotion here. Actually, it's one of the stages we all go through when we become aware of y2k. There is this search we go through looking for every kind of positive little tidbit of information.

But, who are the extremists you refer to? Senator Bennet? Senator Nunn? Senator Thurman? Congressman Horn? The FBI? The CIA? The NSA? The DoD? Maybe Social Services?

Just as there are certainly those who profit from doom there are also those who profit from hope. As a reforming adman I must tell you it's all just in the way the advertising spin goes.

Keep looking for hope but look for the proof and the facts to provide foundation for that hope. This might cause a sobering depression at first but this is all an emotional roller coaster. Eventually, you'll move on to acceptance.

I don't want to tell you it's all bad news out there and I don't want to keep you from looking for the positive side but writing something like this,

"(P.S. All who disagree, ...Any response that does not give solid facts or evidence will be disregarded.)

goes both ways.

You posted the link, would you please give us the solid facts and evidence to support your contention and those of this "author" and bring us hope and proof that no collapse, no "major" chaos and TEOTWAWKI will not occur?

My contention is that this is impossible. You can't prove that these are not possible because you can't prove what hasn't happened yet. Also, those "extremists" can't prove that it must happen. All we have here is a lot of grey area and a lot of speculation.

The bottom line is that the facts.

At this time the facts indicate that there will be failures and that those failures could be widespread and strike deep into the economic and social fiber of every country on the planet.

Is there proof that y2k will have positive ramifications in the world of business and government services? If there is, it hasn't become public record yet.

By the way, TEOTWAWKI is not THE END OF THE WORLD just the end of the world AS WE KNOW IT. It wouldn't take much to cause this to be true and have the world you fell asleep in be different in the morning when you wake up. The world is going to be a different place in 2000, regardless.

IMHO anyway.

-- Michael Taylor (mtdesign3@aol.com), December 07, 1998.

Carol, Have you read the reports by the GAO? If not, you should.

-- Alive in 2001 (Outthere@somewhere.com), December 07, 1998.

Oh for pity's sake. If you guys are so open minded, then might I ask just why, when I, who am a computer expert (insofar as that rather vague statement has any meaning) who has worked with industrial class PLC's, worked in heavy industry and worked in the fuels industry - gets fried whenever I say that I do not by any means expect a GN type disruption? There are a bunch of you who are just damn well panting for TEOTWAWKI just because you think you will come out on top if the whole damn thing goes down. At least North is open about it - though I will tell you right now that I would rather live in the bush and eat worms than live under Norths' so called Christian dictatorship. There is no logical way to prove a negative - you act as if this fact gives you some moral high ground from which to preach to the rest of us! I can't logically prove the sun will rise tomorrow either - are you going to prepare for that?!!!

The postings on PLC's have been, for the most part, pretty poor. I have yet to see any other than my own that distinguish between the type of PLC commonly found in a microwave or a kids toy, and the type of heavy duty controller found in heavy industry. YOU DON'T RUN HEAVY EQUIPMENT WITH TOY CONTROLLERS. Good Lord - the coal company I worked for had a lab that did nothing but test and approve PLC devices for various purposes! Do you really think they have no clue as to whether or not their devices have date problems? WE ARE NOT ALL IDIOTS OUT HERE - and I for one have gotten damn tired of the "all the CS people and engineers haven't got a clue" assumption.

I have followed GN's career since first coming in contact with his writing during the 70's recession. He has predicted disaster after disaster - none of which have yet happened. Frankly, if you had started taking GN's advice in the 70's - you would have been living in the desert for the last 20 years still wondering when the govt. was going to fall. Gary is really the father of the modern militia movement as far as I can tell - the ones who claim to be are generally his disciples one way or another.

-- Paul Davis (davisp1953@yahoo.com), December 07, 1998.

But the real sad thing about this site is that the computers most affecting him (the failures in software, power, and controllers) won't CARE what he thinks. They will fail, or work correctly, or work partially, regardless of what he or the federal fudgement says. regardless of what they pasionately WANT to happen.

Heck, I WANT Y2K to be a none issue. I sincerely hope it will be a bump in the road. But my experience in testing, my knowledge of just how hard it is to fix programs, my experience in trying to "rush" temporary fixes through to "save something" and my knowledge of just how stupidily persistent computers are - tells me entire systems will fail. Dead. We don't know what will fail, nor how long, nor what other systems will be affected. We don't know what will be required to begin recovery. (Ever try to package and ship food without power, transportation, and sanitary water supplies?)

My most relevent questions to this self-styled expert? What is his evidence? What is his experience? Above all, what is his agenda? Who is he working for? Who is paying for his opinion in this subject?

-- Robert A. Cook, P.E. (Kennesaw, GA) (cook.r@csaatl.com), December 07, 1998.

Here's a link to the earlier thread in this forum about Internet 2000 UK's claims and their site at www.visit.internet2000-plc.com:

The UK Y2K June 1998 Report on natural time progression

I still hold the opinions I expressed there about Internet 2000 UK.

-- No Spam Please (anon@ymous.com), December 07, 1998.

I'd like to thank Paul Davis for having the courage to speak up while he most likely is wading through a large amount of flame mail for his beliefs.

Those who are actively agitating for TEOTWAWKI have their own agenda; Gary North is the worst of the bunch.

-- Julie (outout#$#&@spam.com), December 07, 1998.

Julie,

Their own agenda? What would that be? A vast doomsday conspiracy?

Paul, I respect the fact that you understand the systems you work on and you know what you're talking about. I don't have any desire to misrepresent or lesson your beliefs.

My own understanding of y2k has a much broader vision that simply being contained within an information system. I see huge, worldwide corporations and governments that have started late in their y2k efforts and lack the time to fix and test. From there I see how these problems work outward in the supply chain, consumer confidence, social programs, communities, etc.

Y2k is not at all restricted to a computer meltdown. I see the computer malfunctions as the genesis of an economic, social and political meltdown that will have ramifications lasting far longer than the y2k failures themselves.

Do I have an agenda? Yes. I want to take care of my family. Will I do this and at the same time hope and wish upon others ill will? Absolutely not. Never. Not in a million lifetimes.

Julie, you wrote "Those who are actively agitating for TEOTWAWKI have their own agenda; Gary North is the worst of the bunch."

What is it that bothers you about Gary North? I utilize his site for quick links to articles and I rarely read his commentary. What I do respect is his ability to take a position and stay with it.

What is it that makes you so angry about his position? And, what is it that you think anyone would be "actively agitating for TEOTWAWKI"?

If y2k is a bump then I will be incredibly happy for you, for me, my wife and most of all my 2 1/2 year old little boy. I want a bright future for him where he has more opportunities and a better life than I could have even hoped. What would make you think that someone like me could possibly want TEOTWAWKI?

Mike ==================================================

-- Michael Taylor (mtdesign3@aol.com), December 08, 1998.

Mike, GN has not stayed with any position for any length of time except his position that he wants to run things from his idea of a Christian viewpoint. He has waffled, reversed course, taken statments out of context and just gone wherever he pleases over the course of the last 20 years. When I first heard of him he was predicting a quick stock market crash with a general depression and runaway inflation leading to enormous prices for gold - I think he was predicting gold over $5000 dollars an ounce by 1990 and gasoline prices of $5 per gallon up. Look around - it didn't happen. He stated at that time that the US stock market should be at about 6000 to match the numbers of the 60's adjusted for inflation - now he has those numbers (add some for inflation since 79) and he says they are bad news! Heads he wins, tails we lose. That is what I call a sucker game. Why should I listen to a prophet who is wrong all the time?

About now someone should ring in to say "you can't ignore the message because of the messenger". Get a clue - North is NOT a messenger. He is an AUTHOR. You should ALWAYS examine the credentials and previous publications of any author who wants you to make some major change in your life. Suppose I wrote a book claiming that women who have huge breast implants live longer - would you believe that just because it was written down on paper? Or would you try to find out a little more before sending the wife down to the clinic? You would find out that I don't know a darn thing about medicine except for casual reading - but that I have a reputation for liking large breasts (along with 3/4 of the rest of the men in the country). ;) Examine Norths' attitudes and credentials - he is much more the wishful thinker than the authority figure he sets himself up to be. Now as to my problem with that - completely aside from the FACT that he misrepresents himself - is that he has spent years yelling FIRE trying to start a panic. I do not like fear mongers and panic spreaders - and therefore I do not like North.

Besides - he is about the worst advertisment for Y2K preparation I could imagine - you have to wonder just how many people have examined his website and left thinking its all just a bunch of radical crap!

-- Paul Davis (davisp1953@yahoo.com), December 08, 1998.

"you have to wonder just how many people have examined his website and left thinking its all just a bunch of radical crap! "-Paul

That strikes a sensitive nerve with me. I made the mistake of printing a couple GN comments and put it in the stack of other real good Y2K stuff I gave my husband to read when I started out, he didn't check on any other websites but Gary North's. He proceeded to research GN's background right away (which I had failed to do), went "aha!" and dismissed him as a radical nutcase, along with the Y2K issue. That was the end of it for my husband, Y2K had lost any interests/fear I had managed to spark in him. Took me several months of hard work to try to get through to him since. I have the nasty impression that if I had left out Gary North out of the stack, he would have kept his interests and go on researching more, without always having this nagging GN radicalism induced sceptism in the back of his mind, at least at first. Until he's had time to really study the experts opinions.

-- Chris (catsy@pond.com), December 08, 1998.

Paul,

I can see exactly what you're saying and I've heard those statements before. You said alot about Mr. North's positions, etc. regarding a lot of things.

I understand how that can create a basis for an opinion but I don't see how these issues are relevant to his take on y2k or the fact that the links he posts allow for easy access to articles and testimony. I can make the choice to read his commentary and click on the link or simply skip over his commentary and go straight to the link. Any opinion formed is subjective because I have the access to the original text to come to my own conclusions. Gary North doesn't have any ultimate control over the basis on which I build my own opinions.

Chris, I can see your point and I know that this must be true. Gary North is "out there" in many ways. However, I guess what I see as a benefit you might see as a detraction.

Building awareness can be done in many ways including even if it is creating a negative opinion. Your husband has been initiated even if he has, at this time, decided that y2k is nonsense. Eventually, when the hammer falls and the mainstream media like 60 Minutes starts to report y2k more and more your husband will "get it". Every time someone like Gary North or Paul Milne or any one else is allowed a public forum to create and stimulate debate I see it as a positive.

Even so, I don't rely on Gary North. I look to the testimony before congress, organizations like CSIS and other avenues to try to convince not only others but even myself about the severity of y2k.

Mike ==================================================

-- Michael Taylor (mtdesign3@aol.com), December 08, 1998.

Carol, you are walking the line of a DWGI. Facts, schmacts. There are plenty of them out there. You don't want to listen to them.

You need to ask yourself the question "Who will I believe?" Who is that person? Who is it going to be?

When the words spill out of "that person's" mouth you will take heed. Is it going to be Dan Rather? Your employer? Your banker? A government official? Huh? Who has enough credibility in YOUR MIND that you will finally listen?

Who does it NEED TO BE FOR YOU TO PAY ATTENTION? When you have answered that question is when y2k will become real for you.

Most of us who already feel this is a disaster in the making have already heard from "the source" we can trust. The only difference between you and me is who you heard it from.

-- (mass@delusions.com), December 08, 1998.