I'm a prepper, planted a bunch of beautiful new apple trees in the garden today. First priority is to get people thinking. After that, when they are clued in like people on this forum, the next step is: always question your own assumptions. In that spirit, I'm sure you all will have fun shotgunning my rework, from the viewpoint of 1984 AIDS crisis, of the newswire y2k crash percentage engine:

1984: HOW BAD WILL AIDS BE ?

The chance of the health sector failing as a whole due to internal AIDS treatment issues?

The chance of the health care workers deserting their jobs permanently due to AIDS fear ?

The chance of the nation's entire stored blood supply being infected with AIDS ?

The chance of an AIDS panic causing U.S. workers who deal with the public in any way including firefighters, police officers, etc. refusing to work ?

The chance of AIDS being transmitted by mosquitoes or other currently unknown factors ?

The chance that AIDS in combination with other superficially harmless diseases could result in instantaneous death ?

The chance that AIDS could infect nation's water supply ?

The chance that bodies of people dying from AIDS would not be touched or handled by morticians or hospital morgues leading to decaying bodies in the streets and the resurgence of the Black Death ?

Chance that entire US military will be infected exposing our nation to foreign invasion ?

Change that every child in country will die of AIDS, leading to complete depopulation in 1 generation ?

The impact of all the listed "impact items," meaning by what percentage will the impact items make all the other items worse? For example, if ...

That's it! Click "Calculate" to see your results:

_% chance of the complete devastation of society by AIDS resembling effect on Europe in the 1300's of the Black Death

-- runway cat (runway_cat@hotmail.com), December 06, 1998

Answers

Very good, sir. You left out the formulae but , not a bad first try.

Now, has anyone suggested to you that you are TWISTED!?!?!?!?

;-)

Unk, How does that song go "Just....." Chuck

-- Chuck a night driver (rienzoo@en.com), December 06, 1998.

Can you say Apple and Orange?

-- Chris (catsy@pond.com), December 06, 1998.

That's what is so crazy: Everybody is right and everybody is wrong. Y2K could fizz, TEOTWAWKI, some minor trouble, depression, blah blah blah. It is not possible to forecast, but I'm glad that people are trying to get a feel for what will occur, even if the math isn't 100%.

I have a nasty churning in my gut (unrelated to my chili) which tells me something wicked is headed our way. In just over a year from now 'we the aware' go from having a ringside seat, into the ring. I know I want to be as ready as possible for whatever happens. If I get murdered by rampaging mobs because I didn't find a nice cave somewhere, so be it. We all go sometime anyway, but in the meanwhile Me and the Mrs. will give it our best shot.

BTW, if there are packs of crimminal types trashing the neighborhood, we'll give them our best shot as well, though I pray it doesn't ever come to that.

-- Uncle Deedah (oncebitten@twiceshy.com), December 06, 1998.

cr

Methinks that tune begins "I was only..."

-- Uncle Deedah (oncebitten@twiceshy.com), December 06, 1998.

The analogy is interesting, but since when did preparation become a bad thing? I just read a truly dumb article on the net that's in a Spokane, WA newspaper. I'm going to paraphrase it here, substituting what the article said about Y2K with auto accidents:

"The truth is, no one can be absolutely sure what damage auto accidents will cause. An accident is not likely to be a blessing, but don't let apocalyptic nuts convince you that it's such as curse that you will need to buy "insurance". Just cool it."

If it's OK in our society to prepare for auto accidents, even when the risk of having one is much less than 50%, then what's wrong with preparing for Y2K?

-- Kevin (mixesmusic@worldnet.att.net), December 07, 1998.

That is what we are trying to figure out. Some folks will never get it.

-- Uncle Deedah (oncebitten@twiceshy.com), December 07, 1998.

I would never suggest preparation is a "bad thing".

Got non-hybrid seeds, intensive garden, huge water barrels, boots, 11 guns of all types, 1000's of rounds of ammo, wood burning stove, several tons of food, batteries, lanterns, propane, 10,000's of matches, and much more.

I was making a different intellectual point with this posting.

-RC

-- run way cat (runway_cat@hotmail.com), December 07, 1998.

I believe it's been well established by now that mosquitoes do not transmit the HIV virus. Why not? Who knows?

Point about AIDS in general is pertinent, though. Preparation ought to include sturdy surgical gloves, especially by those who may be contemplating dealing with bodies of unwelcome intruders. In such a circumstance strict hygiene has to be a primary concern.

-- Tom Carey (tomcarey@mindspring.com), December 07, 1998.

RC,

I'm a bit confused here. You say preparation is a good thing. I assumed you thought it was silly, because your AIDS analogy suggests Y2K won't be a big deal.

You're making major preparations. So, what is it you're preparing for?

-- Kevin (mixesmusic@worldnet.att.net), December 07, 1998.

RC - what's all this crap about aids?

People are dying from it all around the world - I don't think that's very funny. Do a little more research, there are "experts" out there who are convinced that it was deliberately released back in the 70's.

Last year I did the "Aids Ride" from San Francisco to LA, 600+ miles in 6 days by bicycle, me + 3,000 other souls, I had the best time of my life. There *are* people out there with heart and soul and guts and joi de vivre.

Come on RC are you that scared of getting run over by the approaching Jumbo? Lighten up, give people a chance....

(or should it be runaway cat?)

-- Andy (andy_rowland@msn.com), December 07, 1998.

What I think RC was trying to do was discredit the computer test that gives 1% chance of catastrophe even if all the factors were set to zero.

I get it, RC. By the way, nice handle. How did it come about?

-- Leo (leo_champion@hotmail.com), December 07, 1998.

Oh I thought you meant unk.

No seriously they thought it would happen who knows in y2k we may not die of an incurable disease, who on this forum apart from the newbies is suggesting that.

-- Richard Dale (rdale@figroup.co.uk), December 07, 1998.

Personal opinion, but based on experience in the field: Y2K will start in 1999 with a few problems here and there. This will lead to skeptics doing the "I told you so" dance. As we get closer to 2000, problems will increase but will still be at a manageable level. At some point (I don't know when), the number of these problems is going to reach a critical point, and when that happens, you're going to see the snowball we call the domino effect take place. One leads to the next, etc. As far as recovery, no way to know. Depends on where you are and how you and your neighbors have prepared.

-- Greg Sugg (gregsugg@bbnp.com), December 07, 1998.

I think he AIDS analogy brings up a good point: Y2K is going to be bad, but it not going to be any worse than it actually turns out to be. In other words, be careful not to let all the gloom and doom create a feedback loop where your common sense on the matter is drown out by ever more negative predictions.

"With that uncertainty, I'd say let's hold both possibilities in our minds and see what we can learn about ourselves, with our capacity and impulse both to imagine nightmares that are not there and to deny painful realities until they engulf us."

--- Andrew Bard Schmookler, 7/27/98, Christian Science Monitor

-- a (a@a.a), December 07, 1998.

a,

If the AIDS analogy is to say that Y2K won't be that bad, I can understand that. I'm puzzled, though, because Runway does seem to take Y2K seriously. After all, he's talking about "non-hybrid seeds, intensive garden, huge water barrels, boots, 11 guns of all types, 1000's of rounds of ammo, wood burning stove, several tons of food, batteries, lanterns, propane, 10,000 of matches, and much more".

Now that's some heavy-duty preparation there!

-- Kevin (mixesmusic@worldnet.att.net), December 07, 1998.

Kevin: no, don't get me wrong. I personally think Y2K is going to be a 5 on the Edwards scale (7 on a 10 scale). I think that all that prep is prudent. What I'm saying is, prepare for the worst, but don't let every new snag that comes up on this newsgroup convince you that it is going to be "n+1" worse. The Infomagic scenario is what happens if it actually IS the worst, but that doesn't mean you have to BELIEVE that it will occur. Hope for the best. AIDS seemed a lot worse than it turned out, but try to tell that to an AIDS victim or their family (there's a LOT of them in Africa).

-- a (a@a.a), December 07, 1998.