I have tried to get more information on Oil Refineries. I went to several of the internal industry "Associations." I read current information and past copies of newsleters going back to January, 1998. There was no mention of y2k in any form in current or past communications within these associations. I don't know what to say about this except I am profoundly puzzled. In order to evaluate the extent of y2k disruptions one has to go to the primary core of energy. Without the primary core nothing else works. This is why I read this site every day. I thought without electicity there is no point in researching water, banks, etc. I failed to go far enough. Without fuel the electric utility is dead. Until we find out the y2k condition of core fuel providers, the y2k condition of electric utilities is meaningless. I don't know where else to look for this information. Rick has the expertise in the electric industry, perhaps he can come up with some suggestions as to where to search out core fuel providers. Marcella Derrick Shaw, Ph.D.

-- Anonymous, December 06, 1998

Answers

Except this chain is actually a linked circle: Fuel production (coal,natural gas)-> requires machinery/pumps/onsite electrical power -->> transport of fuel (requires communications and electrical power (electric pumps for pipelines + SCADA systems, trains require communication systems and their own fuel) --->> power plant produces electric which is required in previous systems, etc.

-- Anonymous, December 06, 1998

Dr. Shaw

I believe we can study producers, suppliers, shippers, embedded systems, third party contractors and the price of kumquats in Kampuchea until we are blue in the face and we will be no closer to knowing whether the lights will be on on 01/01/2000 than we are now.

We are dealing with the most complex web of interconnected information and control systems ever seen on the face of the earth. Suppliers affect their customers while in turn being affectd by THEIR suppliers. Fuel refiners, drillers, transportation companies, electric utilites, all affect one another. They could all be affected by a computer glitch that could/will hamper or shut down ANY number of them either directly or indirectly SIMULTANEOUSLY. I don't think any of us has a crystal ball good enough to see what the end result will be.

Rather than grasping for definite answers as to whether your lights will be on after 00:00 Hours local time on 01/01/2000, realize that the only prudent thing for you to do is PREPARE to be without basic utility service for an extended period. If the lights stay on, you'll be safe. If the lights go off, you'll still be safe. If you wait until your research tells you you won't have electricity after New Years Eve 1999, it will be too late to do anything and you'll join of the ranks of the freezing and hungry sitting in the dark listening to their pipes burst. I don't mean to sound negative or preachy but I'm amazed at how many people are looking for someone to tell them they have to prepare. PREPARE ANYWAY! Once you know that your preparations are made you can pursue the extent of everyone's y2k compliance as a purely academic pursuit knowing that (1): it will change nothing, and (2): You and your's will be okay with that

Thanks for letting me get that off of my chest. (Again ;-) Hope this helped All success Keith

-- Anonymous, December 09, 1998

Keith, I started preparing a number of months ago. I researched enough then to know our chances of having power is a risky proposition. It is my scholar/researcher brain that keeps asking for "more input." The more I know the more I will be prepared and better able to influence my friends to prepare. As I go about in a near town (I live in the country) at dark and see all the lights and commercial establishments and all the cars going to and fro I try to imagine the total darkness, no operating businesses, and no cars on the streets. The feeling is overwhelming. A total disaster and yet everything is operating today as if it will continue forever. It is most difficult to comprehend. Marcella

-- Anonymous, December 09, 1998

Keith, I don't know about anyone else, but your post helped me, in that "kumquats in Kampuchea" gave me a much welcome laugh. :-)

I also agree heartily that in our pursuit of information and concrete answers we tend to put simple common sense on the back burner. It helps to remember that detailed knowledge, while good, is not as important a survival trait as flexibility. He who adapts fastest has the greatest chance of getting through whatever the future may throw at them. I think of my preparations as giving me flexibility. That's my intellectual excuse.

Actually, the real reason I'm prepared boils down to remembering my grandmother admonishing me, "Just plain common sense, young lady, will get you farther in life than anything else." I'm going to go pat my wood stove and send up a thanks to Grandma. Then I'm off on those academic pursuits!

Marcella, the overwhelming uncomprehensible feeling you describe is the same one which overtakes people when a loved one or acquaintance dies suddenly. The disconnect between "but I just saw them" and trying to acknowledge they are gone. I think everyone who has the ability to perceive all the changes which Y2K might bring has suffered from what is almost a form of grieving. I know I've spoken with several others who have experienced this. One very nice lady, who is a psychologist by profession, and also very aware of the year 2000 problems, calls it a pre-traumatic stress. It's a way of preparing ourselves mentally for possible situations which might overwhelm us otherwise. I guess preparations come in all forms. Know you're not alone in this difficulty of comprehension, and all best wishes in your search for more information.

-- Anonymous, December 09, 1998

Yes, Bonnie, I am in the same profession as your lady friend. One of the reasons I try to visualize how the landscape of our towns will change is so it won't be such a shock later. Another coping mechanism is to visualize in your mind how your day might go in such a situation. Picture yoursef preparing food and doing other chores that will be necessary along with visualizing what you might do for fun and recreation. The more you practice in your mind the more familiar the actual events will be. Going into "culture shock" without preparation is traumatic. How about going without electricity several weekends to get in a little actual "practice?" I still have to see if I can make a decent loaf of bread. Marcella

-- Anonymous, December 09, 1998