Koskinen and NERC PM comments on electrical industry: This is good news?

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A recent article by Declan McCullagh in Wired News has several comments about the electric power industry status. To read the article go to: http://dailynews.yahoo.com/headlines/wr/story.html?s=v/nm/19981204/wr/outages_1.html

If this is the best that can be done by Mr. Koskinen and a NERC Y2K project manager to reassure the public, then I must say my gravity meter has gone up several notches. I've copied a few of the pertinent lines re the electric industry below, and can not resist commenting on them (in brackets):

``We don't feel there are any types of failures that will jeopardize our ability to provide electricity to our customers,'' said Gerry Cauley, Y2K project manager for NERC. ''A properly tested and repaired unit at the component level does not have a problem that would prevent it from operating.''

[Of course a properly tested and repaired unit doesn't have a problem. The question is will they all BE properly tested and repaired?]

"The good news: Among the companies that are participating, 45 percent of systems had been fixed and tested as of 11 November."

[First, one-sixth of the total power distribution companies are NOT participating. Second, I've read almost a hundred SEC 10Q Year 2000 reports by electric utilities and the great majority of these companies claim they began their Y2K projects in 1996 or 1997. If 45 percent of their systems are fixed and tested, then it has taken them about two or three years to get that far. With approximately one year left to go to fix the other 55 percent, I'm having trouble perceiving why that is considered "the good news".]

"Thus far, judging by the first assessments being done on the power area, companies have been candid.''

[ I assume Mr. Koskinen is referring to the recent SEC 10Q Year 2000 statements when he speaks of being candid. I have read some of these reports in which the filing company says absolutely *nothing* of substance regarding where they are in remediation. I must have a different definition of "candid" than Mr. Koskinen.]

"Koskinen said the government would be moving from contingency planning to a crisis-management phase."

[Crisis-management phase? The last I heard, Mr. Koskinen was saying there wasn't going to BE any crisis...]

Responding to a question about electrical-power failures, Koskinen said, ``In a crisis and emergency situation, the free market may not be the best way to distribute resources.... If there's a point in time where we have to take resources and make a judgement on an emergency basis, we will be prepared to do that.''

[For those contributors to this forum who have previously predicted an industry nationalization or some form of government control on distribution if things get very bad, I'd say this statement corroborates your views. The only question left in that regard is whether the government will have the capacity to intervene if they have serious failures in their own systems.]

If anyone out there can tell me why I should be reassured by the statements in this article, please post and give me the reasons. I would LOVE to know if there's good news hiding somewhere which I missed.

-- Anonymous, December 05, 1998

Answers

Believe me Bonnie, you didn't miss anything. Sad, isn't it?

-- Anonymous, December 05, 1998

Drew Parkhill echoes sentiments similar to Bonnie's at:

http://www.cbn.org/y2k/insights.asp?file=981205d.htm

-- Anonymous, December 06, 1998


Bonnie,

I think you are 100% correct to be concerned by these comments. I have noted a change in tenor by our buddy Mr. Koskinen as of late. He seems to be slipping in some subtle "reality checks" here and there. Things like "there may be some problems, but not major" type of comments. He seems to do this in forums that are not universally read by the American public (like Wired). In the nine o'clock news forums, however, he's all thumbs-up (reference my posting regarding his comments in an AP article).

Personally, I think he's plowing the field, preparing to plant the "we can't fix it all - but we'll be ok" seed. This seed, is the one that will be cultivated up to 1-1-2000, in the hopes that it will grow.

This type of gradual releasing of reality is much easier to stomach for our coddled society than the harsh truth. Look for more of these subtle "reality releases" by Mr. Koskinen as time goes by.

-- Anonymous, December 07, 1998


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