The 10 Eternal Y-2-K questionsgreenspun.com : LUSENET : TimeBomb 2000 (Y2000) : One Thread
The Ten Eternal Y2K Questions that continue to resurface in some form on this and every forum since I've become y2k aware. Only number (10) has an answer: 'dig potatoes'.
(1) Is individual preparedness better, or community ?
(2) Will your isolation in the country put you, perversely, in GREATER danger than you'd face in the city, when marauding gangs arrive ?
(3) Will the main damage from y2k come more from people's "irrational" reactions (e.g. bank runs) than from the code ?
(4) Is there some worse disaster waiting in the wings that even y2k people would be rated as DGI's on ? (nuclear war, civil war, economic collapse, etc.)
(5) When (or, will) the government declare martial law, and, if so, will they attempt: (a) forced removal of people from their homes and/or (b) seizure of supplies ?
(6) Will programmers stay on their code-fixing jobs right up through Jan 1st ?
(7) Will terrorists take advantage of y2k disruption to launch cyber (or physical) attacks ?
(8) Does Clinton actually "get it" and have a secret plan, or is he the "First DGI" ?
(9) What will Gary North do for a living if y2k fizzles ?
(10) What will Joel Koskinen do for a living if it doesn't ?
-- Runway B. Cat (Runway_Cat@hotmail.com), December 04, 1998
1)Community, if you could just get a significant number of people to take it seriously. I haven't found anybody. So, failing that, individual. 2)The country is way bigger and more empty than city people give it credit for. In an isolated location, I'd say the chance of some gang stumbling across you is pretty low. 3)We've survived bank runs before. It's infrastructure problems due to bad code that I worry about. 4)Candidate: nuclear war due to y2k early warning system problems. Somebody actually has to push the button, but dark screens would make people pretty tense. We'll be exchanging observers, hopefully telecommunications between them won't go down...But it wouldn't exactly be a surprise if screens go dark, I suspect people will be rational. Another candidate: outbreaks of superflu or other plague, unmonitored by CDC, which currently functions as a sort of global immune system...But if it's that bad, the reduction in travel will limit the problem. 5)Martial law possible, and has 'legal' grounds. Don't see any reason they would remove people from homes, but could confiscate supplies. But government's ability to do all this will also be hamstrung by y2k. 6)Maybe the ones whose projects are going well will be optimistic about the rest. And if they don't have an alternative set up, they might as well. People in doomed deathmarch projects are already planning their escapes. 7)No cyberattacks without international telecomm. Others, maybe. 8)Clueless. Gov't and military would have to be prepared to take any advantage, and unless there's been massive disinformation they're way behind too. 9)Be a historian like before, throw a wild party.
-- Shimrod (firstname.lastname@example.org), December 04, 1998.
(1)Both, in balance
(2)Location, location, location
(3)A bank run could be rational, in context. Gimme the specifics.
(4)Nothing that hasn't already been waiting in the wings (war, collapse, asteroid collision)
(5)Magic 8-Ball says, "Ask again later."
(6)Some will. Why not ask about other professions?
(7)Some will; others aren't waiting.
(8)(What's the emoticon for rolling one's eyeballs?)
(9)Retire from his earnings on whatever he's doing now.
(10)What's he doing now???
And in the "What's My Line?" category: Runway, I've seen someone else ask whether your monikker was aviation-related, but haven't seen whether you replied. If it's not, is it more fashion- than flying-oriented?
-- No Spam Please (email@example.com), December 04, 1998.
(1) Both individual AND community preparedness is better. Its simultaneous, not linear.
(2) Where ever you choose to be, isolation may or may not be more peaceful, and cooperation within communities, large or small, is just prudent preparation.
(3) If their is a main damage from Y2K, it could come from both people's "irrational" reactions AND the irrational code. Most people dont like negative surprises. Theyd rather have a fighting chance to create something better and get ready. Allow them to make that choice rather than deciding for them.
(4) There is always, potentially, some worse disaster waiting in the wings -- nuclear war, civil war, economic collapse, really severe weather, global warming, etc. -- and there is usually a caring group of disaster preparedness people and countless individuals who try to help when it hits.
(5) If some people within the government tried to declare martial law, and attempted to force people from their homes or seize supplies, I suspect some other people within the government, the military, the bureaucracy, state and local governments, renters, homeowners, lawyers and newsmedia might change their minds for them.
(6) Some programmers will stay on their code-fixing jobs right up through Jan 1st, some wont. Probably depends on whether most people around them are calm and prepared, or not. And if organizations are being open and truthful, or not.
(7) Yes, I suspect some terrorists will try to take advantage of Y2K disruptions to launch cyber (or physical) attacks. Our government groups, DOD, NSA, CIA, FBI, et. al. will hopefully stay at their jobs just like many of the programmers.
(8) Clinton probably actually "gets it" and does have contingency plans. Wish hed quit twiddling his thumbs waiting for the impeachment will they/wont they, game to end. Stupid strategy. Not one likely to win friends and influence people, or preparation of a nation, for the party he represents, or for future Presidents he may endorse.
(9) If Y2K fizzles, Gary North will probably find a new hot topic to preach about. Hes done it before.
(10) If Y2K doesn't fizzle, Joel Koskinen will probably get promoted. And hell have to take more acting lessons. More plastic surgery, perhaps? Try for a bigger smile? How does one act sincere? Actually, he might try crying, and becoming more human. With regrets that he didn't serve the people better.
-- Diane J. Squire (firstname.lastname@example.org), December 04, 1998.
1. Both is better. Communities can't stockpile food and water, individiduals can't provide emergency services or adequate defense. My argument with Dianne is that a prepared community must begin with prepared individuals. Agree that community preparation is tough due to DGIs.
2. Nope. Know my neighbors (that's community), know the terrain (that's individual), and know how to block access roads.
3. No. If the code were fixed we wouldn't be on this forum now, and there would be no worry about "irrational reactions."
4. Yes, but Y2K will be a contributing factor to it.
5. Late 1999, no, no. They'll try to control the cities. People removed from their homes will be those caught with hands in othe people's cookie jars. [See, I am a Pollyanna, after all.]
8. He's a lying GI.
9. Retire to a tropical island where he'll practice community preparedness by inviting Koskinen to join him.
10. Sun bathe with GN on that island.
-- rocky (email@example.com), December 05, 1998.
Ummm, not to be picky but...John is his name
-- Uncle Deedah (firstname.lastname@example.org), December 05, 1998.
Okay Unk, John, boy, Koskinen will probably get promoted. Hope he gets wiser soon too.
-- Diane J. Squire (email@example.com), December 05, 1998.
Rocky: "Communities can't stockpile food and water..."
How do you figure this? Plenty of churches and schools have an auditorium and/or rec hall or gym with room enough to store a lot of food and water for their community (however that would be defined at the time.)
Individuals can stockpile food, but sufficient water? That's a problem.
-- Tom Carey (firstname.lastname@example.org), December 05, 1998.
Tom, Yep. Water may well be the achilles heal.
-- Diane J. Squire (email@example.com), December 06, 1998.