I caught a story on NPR yesterday on my way home from work which basically said that Bonneville Power is predicting possible energy shortages over the winter months due to the growth of the population here in the Northwest. The problem is that no new power generating facilities are being constructed to help relieve the demand. Anybody else hear this story? They listed some percentages about shortfalls (no mentions about y2k) Anybody?

thanks

Jeff

-- Anonymous, December 03, 1998

Answers

Jeff, months ago I was talking with a man I know who was deeply concerned that for a long time the electrical power demands in this country have been gaining on the production capacity and we were falling farther behind every year. He said not enough new facilities were being built and that shortages were inevitable. This was the first I had heard this. (It was totally unrelated to Y2K)

Then I read three of Dick Mill's columns a while back which also addressed this issue. Go to: http://www.timebomb.com/PP/RC/index.htm

and read the three columns beginning with "Worse Than Blackouts..", then "Keeping The Lights On..", ending with "Power, Yes, But At What Price?" While these columns were written in a Y2K context, there is good information throughout all on the declining capacity trends. Pay close attention to the Capacity Margin Trends graph put out by NERC in the "Keeping The Lights On" article.

The facts appear to indicate that this country is experiencing sporadic shortfalls in production versus demand now, and this will only escalate in the next few years, irregardless of Y2K. Mr. Mills explores the reasons in these articles, and they're well worth reading. There are serious issues with electrical generation which will affect citizens and which are completely separate from whatever the Year 2000 may bring. I believe the cheap power we are all so used to is fast coming to an end, and Americans are going to have to pay much more attention to their consumption than they do now.

-- Anonymous, December 03, 1998

Thanks Bonnie,

I've read those articles as well, regarding power shortages.

On the upside, there was an article in the Oregonian a week or so ago (which I wish I would have clipped now) about how Pacificorp is planning on starting more power generation with both solar and wind power. At least solar and wind power is y2k compliant! :)

Jeff

-- Anonymous, December 03, 1998

Jeff, saying, "At least solar and wind power is y2k compliant! :) " is unfortunately not a safe assumption.

All, except the tiniest, solar and wind farms' will have computer monitoring and control systems that may have Y2K problems.

--AJ

-- Anonymous, December 03, 1998