greenspun.com : LUSENET : TimeBomb 2000 (Y2000) : One Thread

Y2K FAILURE RATE PREDICTIONS (Sources: David Legard, ONLINE NEWS, 11/12/98 via SANGER'S REVIEW OF Y2K NEWS REPORTS; Original Report published 10/7/98) The GARTNERGROUP has released a new batch of failure-rate predictions: BY COUNTRY - Level 1 (15 percent): Australia, Belgium, Bermuda, Canada, Denmark, Holland, Ireland, Israel, Switzerland, Sweden, U.K., U.S. - Level 2 (33 percent): Brazil, Chile, Finland, France, Hungary, Italy, Mexico, New Zealand, Norway, Peru, Portugal, Singapore, South Korea, Spain, Taiwan. - Level 3 (50 percent): Argentina, Armenia, Austria, Bulgaria, Colombia, Czech Republic, Egypt, Germany, Guatemala, India, Japan, Jordan, Kenya, Kuwait, Malaysia, North Korea, Poland, Puerto Rico, Saudi Arabia, South Africa, Sri Lanka, Turkey, United Arab Emirates, Venezuela, Yugoslavia. - Level 4 (66 percent): Afghanistan, Bahrain, Bangladesh, Cambodia, Chad, China, Costa Rica, Ecuador, El Salvador, Ethiopia, Fiji, Indonesia, Kenya, Laos, Lithuania, Morocco, Mozambique, Nepal, Nigeria, Pakistan, Philippines, Romania, Russia, Somalia, Sudan, Thailand, Uruguay, Vietnam, Zaire, Zimbabwe. BY INDUSTRY - Level 1 (15 percent): Insurance, Investment services, Banking, Pharmaceuticals, Computer Manufacturing. - Level 2 (33 percent): Heavy Equipment, Aerospace, Medical Equipment, Software, Semiconductors, Telecom, Retail, Discrete Manufacturing, Publishing, Biotechnology, Consulting. - Level 3 (50 percent): Chemical Processing, Transportation, Power, Natural Gas, Water, Oil, Law Practices, Medical Practices, Construction, Transportation, Pulp & Paper, Ocean Shipping, Hospitality, Broadcast News, Television, Law Enforcement - Level 4 (66 percent): Education, Healthcare, Government Agencies, Farming & Agriculture, Food processing, Municipal Services. Full story at:-


-- Andy (andy_rowland@msn.com), December 01, 1998


This post about the Gartner Group's predictions is interesting. As it is it is pretty much like reading information about your country in a textbook.. bears little relationship with what the locals think. Can anyone provide the evidence on which the 33% for New Zealand is is based? May help me revise my 50% estimate downwards..

-- Bob Barbour (r.barbour@waikato.ac.nz), December 01, 1998.

Since it appears the Gartner Group has become nothing more than a mouthpiece for the government, perhaps we should look somewhat askance at these numbers... adding some double-digit figures to the percentages. Hmmmmm?

-- Vic Parker (rdrunner@internetwork.net), December 01, 1998.

Or cut them in half - it would be equally accurate. Without knowing how they got their values, what they consider "failures", what they are measuring, ....its only guessing.

-- Robert A. Cook, P.E. (Kennesaw, GA) (cook.r@csaatl.com), December 01, 1998.

The Gartner Group's statements and predictions are schitzophrenic at best, disinformation at worse.


-They advise to prepare and stockpile for only 5 days interuption in power, food and water supply. (From previous thread)

-They predict above: 50% failure rates in power and gas supply, water, transportation/ocean shipping, and 66% failure rates in food production and distribution, healthcare, governement agencies and municipal services.

I'm not a genius, but the discrepency jumps at me. And wether those predictions are global, other countries only or in US only doesn't matter. The US doesn't reside on another planet.

-- Chris (catsy@pond.com), December 01, 1998.

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