Did anyone else see the CBS "Eye on America" clip about Y2K? Anti-climactic after "60 Minutes", but at least they mentioned fiscal year rollovers. I sorta wish they HAD put Paul Milne on there, though, because I'm getting bored with Scott. (Nothing personal, I'm sure he's a very fine person, but could we see someone NEW?)

-- Gayla Dunbar (privacy@please.com), November 30, 1998

Answers

I found a copy of the transcript:

(CBS) Scott Olmsted is on the run. His hideaway is a secret desert retreat known only to his family, CBS News Correspondent Sandra Hughes reports.

"We've fenced in the place, so it's not like anyone can walk in without making an effort," Olmsted said. "We have one firearm, and will probably be getting one or two more."

Olmsted's running from the one thing he knows will catch him - time. That's why he's preparing now for the "Millenium Bug," the worldwide computer glitch that could strike on Jan. 1, 2000. Olmsted, his wife, Barbara, and many others are anticipating a computer plague resulting in widespread power outages, water shortages and general panic.

"Without power or water, there might be crime, no food," Olmsted said.

"If we see social unrest, we'll head for the hills," added wife Barbara.

"We bought a generator. We're buying a year's worth of dehydrated food," said Olmsted.

Buying land in a remote area may seem extreme, but Scott Olmsted is not a member of some fringe survivalist group; he's a well-paid computer programmer who says he's seen the potential for disaster first-hand.

"Every system that brings things to you, your food, your water, your power, your fuel, are run by computers," Olmsted said.

Everything from a common vending machine, to our VCRs, to the nation's power system has what are called embedded chips. They're the little brains that run the machine. Many of them have an internal clock. On New Year's Eve, 1999, those internal clocks will flip over to "00."

The big fear is that around the world, computers will think it's 1900, not 2000, causing them to lose their memories, shut down and plunge society into a modern dark age.

"I think that's overblown," said Eric Trapp of Southern California Edison.

It may be, but Trapp isn't taking any chances. He's continually testing hundreds of thousands of embedded chips in the electric company's power grid, all in an effort to keep the lights on when we hit year 2000, or Y2K.

But for many companies, the deadline is coming sooner than that. A handful of dates in 1999 could give us a glimpse of how bad Y2K problems might get. For some businesses, fiscal year 2000 begins as early as April 1, 1999; for others, July 1; and October 1 for the government. These dates could cause computer crashes if Y2K fixes aren't in place.

"Actually, that's going to wake up a lot of people because they're gonna start seeing what parts of their business start to crumble," said Ted Ellison.

Ellison is ready to step in when the crumbling begins. His company, Pick Systems, has created a way to combat the millennium bug by replacing dates with whole numbers that never end and never roll over. But Ellison's afraid it's already too late for many businesse, especially small ones, that haven't taken precautions:

"Anyone who doesn't prepare for the El Ninos of the world is crazy," he said.

Southern California Edison claims it's ready. So far, all of the systems it has tested are a go. But the utility admit there's not enough time to test every single embedded chip and that's what worries Scott Olmsted.

"I'm not taking the assurances of the power company on this quite yet," Olmsted said.

Most experts think the Y2K problem can be managed. But Olmsted is still betting on a millennium meltdown and trying to stay one step ahead of the clock. )1998 CBS Worldwide Corp. All rights reserved.

-- Gayla Dunbar (privacy@please.com), November 30, 1998.

Scott's programmer heading for the hills and the juxtaposition with SCE Southern California Edison and the "we'll be ready stance" is not quite consistent with their latest SEC 10-Q filing. Gotta' e-mail CBS that one.

The Dan Rather take on Y2K did at least push the potential problems up to 4/1/1999.

The little 'ole mother exit poll? Guess I need to add dehydrated food to my list. It's lighter and easier to pack.

Bit by bit. Drip by drip. What does Y2K have in common with Chinese water torture?

Diane

-- Diane J. Squire (sacredspaces@yahoo.com), November 30, 1998.

Takes water, energy, planning to refill the bottle?

-- Robert A. Cook, P.E. (Kennesaw, GA) (cook.r@csaatl.com), November 30, 1998.

Paul Milne on 60 Minutes? Now that is much scarier than Kevorkian. Paul Milne, if he doesn't shut up, is going to destroy any credibility that we have in trying to calmy convince people they should prepare. He has totally lost it. He has invested his life savings in a ranch and will say whatever he needs to justify this. If he doesn't manage to create total anarchy he will probably become the next Ted Kazynski.

-- M.D. (md@here.com), November 30, 1998.

To MD< It is too late to just calmly mosey along. Perhaps you are not bright enough to realize this is life or death. It is not a game.

A year ago was time to try to rationalize with folks. Now, they NEED to be hit with a clue by four.

I 'am' glad that Scott came off well. I am dissappointed that they opted to go with him instead of me. Not for notoriety's sake, but because I would have been more up front. Like the way I was on the CNN show, where I bluntly stated that if you were in a populated area you would not make it.

It is far too late to namby pamby around and molly-coddle the stragglers.

-- Paul Milne (fedinfo@halifax.com), November 30, 1998.

I like the mental resonance of that "clue by four" on an empty noggin.

-- Robert A. Cook, P.E. (Kennesaw, GA) (cook.r@csaatl.com), November 30, 1998.

Robert,

There are multidimensional "clues" moving forth. Each has their own timing and season under ... Y2K. Okay?

-- Diane J. Squire (sacredspaces@yahoo.com), November 30, 1998.

ummmm......Gayla.......why not somebody like Sen. Bob Bennett, or Ed Yardeni?

Or aren't we interested in fair coverage from people who don't see things in such catastrophic terms?

-- John Howard (Greenville, NC) (pcdir@prodigy.net), December 01, 1998.

John, the problem is that the only people I've seen on the news are the ones who "don't want to upset anyone." Really! Think about it. Who have you seen that has said, "Look folks, if you don't have some extra food and water, you COULD die. I'm not trying to upset you, but this is VERY serious. We're talking about your life." I want to see someone say THAT on "National T.V."

-- Gayla Dunbar (privacy@please.com), December 01, 1998.

I think Gayla has it right John.

Paul, I really respect your stance and I understand what you're motivations are. Some people can't see beyond style to the substance of your message which is actually very, very positive. If you care for your family, especially your children, PREPARE!... I get it... oh, and get out of the cities.

I think the choice of going with Scott at this time was a good one. Actually, CBS has taken a very interesting stance with y2k from a journalistic standpoint. They chose someone directly connected to programming and showed how far he and his family have gone to prepare. I think they'll keep raising the bar in a deliberate and slow manner and eventually Mr. Milne will be on 60 Minutes.

I don't really get the way they closed with the MIT professor... they should have asked him how often he was responsible for placing the y2k bug inside the system. Oh, or maybe he was pure management. Either way it would have shown just how myopic his own personal view of the world really is.

I keep waiting for someone to say that y2k is bigger than code and goes to the very fabric of macro economics and society as a whole. Eh, maybe someday.

Mi

-- Michael Taylor (mtdesign3@aol.com), December 01, 1998.

I wouldn't mind that "MIT professor" - if I thought he had any creditions (industrial experience) in actually trying to fix bad and busted code. It's hard, slow, tough work that will not allow easy answers - particularly in testing.

If he had any industrial experience = he would not be at MIT, he would have not likely been "accepted" by the other staff as a qualified professor, not would he have been sitting on his office getting tenure instead of getting experience.

I will accept any explanation he personally, (or anybody who knows him personally at MIT) offers about his real world experience. Until then, I reject him as an authority on anything except theorectical MIT computer design classes.

-- Robert A. Cook, P.E. (Kennesaw, GA) (cook.r@csaatl.com), December 01, 1998.

Agree re academia and tendency towards cluelessness. As Ed Yourdon notes in another thread, both Ed and Paul Greenspun (developer of the way-cool software which runs this forum) are MIT grads. Wonder if they can provide any insight into that prof's background. Unless the guy's actually done some serious implementation work, he lacks a fundamental appreciation for the task at hand.

-- Mac (sneak@lurk.com), December 01, 1998.

"CBS) Scott Olmsted is on the run. His hideaway is a secret desert retreat known only to his family, CBS News Correspondent Sandra Hughes reports."

Not secret only to his family anymore. With all the news interview he gives, there's at least 500+ people in the media who know exactly where it is ;>

Paul's turn is coming up soon, I can feel it. Then Infomagic's, he'll appear as a shadowed and scrambled voiced person on 60 minutes...;)

-- Chris (catsy@pond.com), December 01, 1998.

It's interesting that CBS mentioned that Scott Olmsted is a well-paid programmer but didn't mention that he has a doctorate from Stanford or that he did intensive Y2K research online.

Well, no sense in letting the American people know that somebody that smart is also that worried.

-- Don Florence (dflorence@zianet.com), December 02, 1998.

And as a follow-up to what I just posted: this reminds me of a recent Y2K article by LA "Times" columnist Larry Magid, in which he referred to Ed Yourdon simply as a "journalist." That's right, a journalist-- no mention at all of Yourdon's credentials as a top mainframe programmer, brilliant software engineer, leading computer consultant, etc. When I took Magid to task for this stupidity, he replied that so long as Yourdon wrote articles for computer magazines he was a journalist. Period. When I tried to press home the point that Yourdon should have been identified in terms of his particular expertise and his qualifications to evaluate Y2K, Magid shot back another email, claiming that he had meant Yourdon no disrespect and that he considered being a journalist "a badge of honor." He wouldn't budge an inch.

As Dave Barry says, I'm not making this up. Something to keep in mind as you evaluate media stories about Y2K.

-- Don Florence (dflorence@zianet.com), December 02, 1998.