Another analogy for DGI'sgreenspun.com : LUSENET : TimeBomb 2000 (Y2000) : One Thread
I may have read something similar to the following somewhere, so I don't take credit for it. I have found it gets DGI's to at least think about the problem more seriously.
This analogy points out the fact that it is precisely those who are most knowledgable about the problem (programmers) who are sounding the alarms the loudest.
You take your car to your mechanic, whom you trust. He tells you that if you attempt to start your car on 1/1/2000, it will blow up!! You trust him, but you are skeptical, so you take it to a second mechanic, who gives you the exact same diagnosis. As does a third. And fourth. A fifth isn't convinced, but admits it's possible, so to be safe, better not turn the key on that fateful day.
You like your car. You need your car. You can't come to grips with what you are hearing. So, you write the dealership, who refers you to the manufacturer. The manufacturer stonewalls you, but gently reassures you that any "rumors" you have heard are unfounded. Everything is fine. He/she will NOT, however, give you any guarantees in writing. The lawyers have advised against it.
My obvious question is: Who do you believe?
-- Steve Hartsman (email@example.com), November 30, 1998
Except ... unfortuntately, not all the "mechanics" are in agreement on Y2K! Even the reknowned "Infomagic" notes that there are people with his level of experience in the computer industry who are not convinced that Y2K will be a problem, or if it is a problem, that it will be anything more than minor, or over a short term duration, etc.
To be accurate, the analogy should be modified so that the mechanics are more varied in their responses. But note that you still have to ask yourself: Even if only 1 out of 5 mechanics believes that your car would actually blow up, is it worth the risk of attempting to start it on 1/1/2000?
-- Jack (firstname.lastname@example.org), November 30, 1998.
But then you notice that almost every mechanic you see is planning on riding the bus that day.....but the automobile dealer is telling you its okay to drive.
Now, who do you believe?
-- Robert A. Cook, P.E. (Kennesaw, GA) (email@example.com), November 30, 1998.
Think about the game of Russian Roulette. No matter how many chambers there are in the cylinder, if one if them is loaded you really wouldn't want to play.
-- Tom Carey (firstname.lastname@example.org), December 01, 1998.