Hi Gang:

Cory has posted his latest & Greatest at:

http://www.kiyoinc.com/current.html

Both InfoMagic Part II, and the follow on WRP also.

Have Fun.

S.O.B.

-- sweetolebob (buffgun@hotmail.com), November 27, 1998

Answers

It is WAY COOL!!!

S.O.B.

-- sweetolebob (buffgun@hotmail.com), November 27, 1998.

How much credibility do you put into this article. It sounds very extreme to me. And scary. Why will Informagic not come forward with his name and creditials. Before I can beleive him, I would like to know who he is.

He has given me a lot to think about. Maybe too much.

-- Linda A. (adahi@muhlon.com), November 28, 1998.

To quote Infomagic ... When we lose a significant percentage of the population, which we certainly will, we will also lose an important part of our ability to maintain civilization itself.

NOT IF WE GET ALL READY!! Why must people keep insisting that unless the computers are fixed, we will lose civilization? 50 years ago we did not LIVE with computers, and we won a World War on two fronts! We CAN survive without them, or without part of them, if the whole population KNOWS we are going to have a bumpy ride and starts to get ready SOON. Would you drive on the Interstate without seat belts? Time to strap in and get ready. Its the big organizations that need to let go of their need to control what cannot BE controlled. We have the precious gift of part of 1999 to prepare the nation. Dont waste it.

And Cory says ... Start work on a big garden, get your friends and family going on at least the minimal preparations, get your company, local government, church, to take that first step. Here's the trade off. If no one prepares, when the systems break, we'll have a very hard time. The systems will break, this is a certainty. It is uncertain whether the consequence is rioting, looting. "Mad Max" and "Escape from New York" or "Little House on the Prairie".

Finally -- someone gets it. Thanks Cory.

Diane

-- Diane J. Squire (sacredspaces@yahoo.com), November 28, 1998.

Diane: It will be all three, in this order, "Escape from New York", then "Mad Max", then 2 years later with a drastically reduced population, "Little House on the Prairie".

-- yada (aa@aa.net), November 28, 1998.

Linda A.

For the moment I am still digesting the message, and some of it's ramifications. The idea is just so awesome!

The problem that I have is that I am dumber than a rock in the road, so I can't find any fault to his reasoning.

Yet.

I realize that everyone likes a good horror story, but I can't find a flaw in it. It all sounds so possible somehow. I can't see where he's palmed the ace so to speak.

Like you, I too am curious as to his identity. But here in Cyberville we are simply whatever we wish to be. You are a row of electrons that have excited a few phosphors on my monitor, blue ones at that. To you I am just some other electrons on your scope. I accept the "fact" of you, but I have no way of knowing who, or what, you are. Or even, IF you are for that matter.

So it is with Info. I will have to study it for awhile before I decide.

At first blush? Yes, I am afraid that I do believe it is entirely too possible.

S.O.B.

-- sweetolebob (buffgun@hotmail.com), November 28, 1998.

yada, NOT if enough of us change that possible reality -- it's not set in stone, ya know.

-- Diane J. Squire (sacredspaces@yahoo.com), November 28, 1998.

I agree with approximately 70% of Infomagic Part II. There are some things that I will quibble about. Most of his math is reasonable but the underlying definitions are too hazy. The whole concept of "mission critical" is not well defined anywhere. From my corporate experience, maybe 10%-20% of systems are "mission critical" if you mean the business will go under in 60 days without them. But if you narrow your timescope, maybe 5% of systems have to be operational during the first 30 days. Conversely, you could take that to mean that "non-critical" systems going down could also kill the company in 90 days.If you are an airline pilot, the ATC mission critical systems are those you are using RIGHT NOW. Can you get my airplane on and off the ground NOW? His statements on residual error are correct but he ignores the fact that remediated code is being put into production NOW in some cases. This spreads the failure rate out in time and makes individual failures less important. He implies that all the remediated code will be put into production at the same time which isn't strictly true. Having said that, all the remediated code will see the same (production) rollover at the same time. The difference is trying to estimate the effectiveness (or efficiency) of the remediation in code which has already been in a production environment for months. Some will fail, but the percentage could be 0.01%, 0.1%, 1% etc. There is no precedent. As for the devolution theory, maybe, but even the loss of 5 billion people (leaving one billion behind) is more than enough hands to restart technology over a couple generations. The knowledge base is VERY widespread. I have enough science books in my modest home library to restart all of our fundamental techno works. Think about it. Once you know (or find out) how to build a steam engine and an electric generator, you now know enough to rebuild transport, communications and basic manufacturing. So I disagree with Infomagic on the scope of devolution. Could we be set back 100 years? yes A thousand? no. I doubt thats very comforting though. I, for one, have no desire to visit the era of the Wright brothers. I still think our fate hangs largely on power generation (first) and telecomm (2nd). If we keep significant islands of power and national telecomm then we muddle through the worst economic times in the last 200 years under martial law. Lose those and all bets are off with a probable rapid descent into Mad Max and hello Wilbur .

-- RD. ->H (drherr@erols.com), November 28, 1998.

As a computer professional of 21 years, working primarily with mainframes, the basis upon which our fragile civilisation is built, I have to agree with INFOMAGIC on his assessment.

I've been at the sharp end many times and know just how precarious some of these systems are. The interconnectivity is mindboggling, and very often if one system fails it doesn't even matter about the rest because they are dead ducks by default.

I've taken the trouble to put hundreds (over a thousand by now?) of hours of research into this issue over the last six months or so. I've been coming to INFOMAGIC's conclusion for some little while; I can't fault his logic, if anything with his mathematics he is being too generous on some points.

The problem will be in the order of magnitudes and will feed on itself. There may never have been in history an event of such complexity hitting civilisation at the same instant on a worldwide basis (other than other Extinction Level Events such as a metor strikes or pole shifts etc.).

Too many people/governments/entities are vastly underestimating what is looming on the horizon. Factor in the world economy alone and we have a catastrophe in the making; we're just waiting for our wake-up call here in the USA in that regard. I don't want to even think about the military/nuclear implications...

Anyone reading these posts should consider themselves lucky that they have a years' head-start:-)

Just make sure you use it!!!

-- Andy (andy_rowland@msn.com), November 28, 1998.

RD said:

I have enough science books in my modest home library to restart all of our fundamental techno works. Think about it.

Humor me for a moment, RD

Wouldn't be a real bummer if you discovered that what you really have there are enough science books to heat the average size dwelling for 10 days?

You look at the wall and see science books and knowledge and a future. I look at the same wall and see BTUs. You see ONLY books. I see ONLY BTUs. The psychologists call this functional fixedness.

During rough times, immediate needs almost always take priority over long term thinking and planning.

You know I'm not a book burner by nature, and given a sufficient supply of firewood, I wouldn't even consider using your books for fuel. It's just that the winter was a bit colder and a bit longer than I had planned for and well, hey, I've got a family to save. It's not like I'm asking you to do something I wouldn't do. Why just last night, basking in the warm glow of my last copy of "Gravitation", I commented on what tough times these were.

How 'bout it huh? Some BTUs for an old friend?

-Arnie

-- Arnie Rimmer (Arnie_Rimmer@usa.net), November 28, 1998.

Ooooopsforgot to turn of the dagnabbed italics

-- Arnie Rimmer (Arnie_Rimmer@usa.net), November 28, 1998.

You know what I find ironic. Here we are, near the techno-civilization pinnacle, sitting on the internet with our computers, communicating with one another and contemplating its demise.

I wonder if Galileo saw his accusers approaching through his telescope?

-- Nathan (nospam@all.com), November 28, 1998.

I respect Infomagic's point of view because he/she looks at y2k with history in mind. I wonder just how many times we have done this throughout our human experience? The Romans are one example and they are an excellent example. I have no doubt that they are not the only example of a society which collapses on itself.

We've existed on the planet for hundreds of thousands of years yet only a small portion of our "history" is really known. "Modern history." Interesting choice of words. How many times and how many ages have we been through? Have we destroyed ourselves before?

Diane, I hope you are right but I don't know how realistic it is to think that we will ALL get ready. It just wont happen. Each one of us will lose someone we know and love because of y2k.

I have no doubt that Infomagic's assessment is possible. I think he shows us what one of our many alternate futures might be. But, I'm an optimist. There are other possibilities. But I always find a failure in my logic when trying to create an alternate future in my mind. There are too many interdependencies in each scenario. Too many points of possible failure. Too many weak links.

One of the most amazing things to happen to computers is the "laptop". So, we will always have access in some way to computing! You can go anywhere with a laptop, as long as the batteries are charged. Well, you can plug it in. Oh, as long as the power is on. Hey...we have a bunch of generators, as long as we have fuel. Well, we can make some more fuel, as long as the refineries are operational. Well, if they aren't, we can ship the fuel here... ah, nevermind.

But, there is always Solar. So, think differently. We have to get the world to think differently if we want to survive. It will take generations to do this. It wont happen in my lifetime. But, I'm an optimist. It will happen.

We've built quite a world and Infomagic's take on the "carrying capacity" is incredibly sound. It's sobering and true.

Start teaching your kids now. Keep a journal and write to the future generations. Stockpile books and paper and pencils. "Live beyond the bounds of your own existance". When I coined that phrase for my business "Native" I never thought I would be using it in that way.

Our age will make for interesting legends.

Mike ==========================================

-- Michael Taylor (mtdesign3@aol.com), November 28, 1998.

Well said Mike - just as a by the way - you might want to read Lucifer's Hammer (Larry Nivin + Pournelle) if you haven't already - there is a great sub-plot where a geek astronomer/programmer buries hundreds and hundreds of books - later to be dug up for the next generation to rebuild known technology. Similar volumes of this sort of knowledge now exist on microfiche - if you can get a MF reader in 2005:))

Oh well, always a magnifying glass and clay tablets I suppose:)

-- Andy (andy_rowland@msn.com), November 28, 1998.

I agree with Infomagic. Some will argue that simultaneous failures will not occur because some remediated programs are in production now or will be phased in.

In most cases these are standalone programs or systems which DO NOT 'feed' other programs or systems. Or if they DO feed other systems, the changes are 'stubbed' or made to appear as though no changes have been made. The changes to these points of integration must be coordinated with the changes to the other programs, sub-systems, or systems.

In other words, coordination is requiredwhere one strand of silk in the web touches another . THIS IS THE PROBLEM.

In most cases these points of integration segregate one project team from the next. Different teams, managers, workers, and schedules.. some internal to the organization some external.

Item 2

One area not addressed by Cory is the movement from a testing environment to a production environment. In most cases physical movement of programs, libraries, and files are required.

This is a huge undertaking in itself.

Movement from a unit testing environment to a systems testing environment is necessary. Coordination of other non y2k related changes at the same time within the single strand of silk. Movement from a systems testing enviroment to a integration testing environment should be done but rarely is because of the coordination effort required with the other teams. What usually happens is that data is forward to the other teams to include in their own systems testing.

So....integration testing is not done or not done properly. Ok, Lets move all this stuff we have been working on for 3 years into production. (I won't even mention that for the most part automated systems are used for configuration management and change control...ARRRGGGGGHHHHH! Have these systems been remediated?)

I would estimate a 10% failure rate in a single company migrating from a test to a production environment. Modules not found, rejections to due to standards violations, wrong versions of libraries and modules copied. Failures in communications between project teams...or teams which no longer exist or..which have been restuctured to work on other projects with a different project leader. et al.

The coordination of the migration to production of all points of integration in charlotte's web at the same point in time is IMHO an impossible feat.

-- MVI (vtoc@aol.com), November 28, 1998.

Andy: Mike: Regarding Lucifer's Hammer:

I remember also that he had a two volume book set called something like 'The Way Things Work". The author's point being that most of us use electricity, telephones, machines, and all these things we take for granted without much of a clue as to how it actually works from a scientific/tech pesrpective... should we have to re-build civilization (ala Infomagic) this knowledge is critical. This same character from the book also said something like "If we have electricity, we can re-build civilization".

Was the reference to the book fictional, or is there really something available like 'The Way Things Work'?

-- Rob Michaels (sonofdust@net.com), November 28, 1998.

Mike, "Diane, I hope you are right but I don't know how realistic it is to think that we will ALL get ready. It just wont happen. Each one of us will lose someone we know and love because of y2k."

In truth Mike, I don't think we'll ALL get ready in time. However the more that DO directly impacts the increased likelihood that a greater percentage will make it beyond 2000...to a much simpler way of living. Yes, I do think we will lose many we love, but should that stop us from trying to help as many as we can NOW?

Y2K will strip our civilization down to its essence. Be sure your core is intact and remember to hold courage and love in your heart. With that, and more, you can walk through your darkest fears and through many a shadowed valley.

And Mike, there is ample evidence in the so called "ruins" around this planet that we have indeed, done this before, in various creative ways. The recurring lesson is, can we get it right this time around? (Hint: United We Stand, Divided We Fall).

Diane

-- Diane J. Squire (sacredspaces@yahoo.com), November 28, 1998.

I'm sorry Diane, *all* are not preparing, and *all* will not prepare - it is not happening and if it hasn't already begun happening in a major way, there is no longer time for everyone to prepare. In other words barring direct intervention by Almighty God (always possible, but I wouldn't hold my breath - since personally I think He intends to allow this to occur) at the very minimum Detroit (utilities began repairs this September) and Chicago (utilities stopped trying to sell their generation facillities to avoid doing repairs this September) are going to go down hard, taking several million folks with them, and very likey taking down a substantial portion of the grid at the same time. - see my second post on the "is awareness shifting?" thread. That's not counting the folks in Europe(way behind due to lack of interest and concentration on the EURO introduction); Japan (way behind due to a combination of financial problems and a massive cultural blindspot); China (floods, social unrest, financial problems); the rest of asia (financial problems); Russia & and former USSR (way behind, major financial meltdown ongoing, 64 more Chernobyl type reactors, well over 100 missing nuclear weapons); The middle east (behind due to cultural factors combined with a lot of social unrest - and probably the current location of at least some of those missing nukes); Central and South America (ever been to Mexico City? imagine it without any electricity for a month or two...gonna happen,) and so on.

stuff is going to go crunch! here shortly...whether it will go as far as infomagic implies is hard to say, but it *is* going to get very bad for a significant portion of the world's population, including some in our hemisphere and some folks right here in the United States.

People ARE not preparing, and there is not enough time left for them all to prepare...it's that simple. Since our civilization is the sum of it's component parts, this will not 'strip our civilization down to it's bare essence', but rather rip great bloody chunks out of the social structures both in this country and abroad. We *are* going to lose significant portions of our infrastructure, and we *are* going to see significant portions of the population die. At best our preparations can be focussed to insure the maintenance of the highest standards of living possible for ourselves and our local community, but in the end that is *all* we will be able to achieve.

Mike is right - we've got to concentrate on solar and other renewables (wood, methane, etc) and stockpile resources so that our children and their children will be able to carry on the rebuilding process.

Just my 2 cents' worth Arlin Adams

-- Arlin H. Adams (ahadams@ix.netcom.com), November 28, 1998.

Should Cory be taken seriously, really? Someting I have not been able to do is get past his statements to the effect of, "Do not take the weather reports or yourself to seriously." and "If you do not have a SENSE OF HUMOR, turnback now." Am I interpreting these statements that he makes to literally? Is he for real? I have been reading his weather reports for some time.

-- flierdude (mkessler0101@sprynet.com), November 28, 1998.

Arnie, Thats quite a psychlogical blind spot! If you burn books to keep warm then you will freeze. A hundred textbooks might heat one room for 24-36 hours. On the other hand, a simple physics How To book can show you how to make solar collectors, methane generators, electrical generators, water purifiers, refrigeration (ammonia cycle), simple explosives, compasses, optics, etc. All of these can be made with materials already present in most homes. The right book might just save you and your family. Knowledge is power!

Okay now, a new task for all the "get its". Get 5 basic knowledge books. Ziplock each in plastic with some drying silica gel. Put the wrapped books in a sturdy waterproof container and bury it. Make sure your family knows the location. Get duplicates of the buried books and study them. Past the initial slide (even the "prepared" will eventually use up initial supplies) these books should have what you need to know to survive and flourish.

-- RD. ->H (drherr@erols.com), November 28, 1998.

Rob, in answer to your question -

"Andy: Mike: Regarding Lucifer's Hammer: I remember also that he had a two volume book set called something like 'The Way Things Work". The author's point being that most of us use electricity, telephones, machines, and all these things we take for granted without much of a clue as to how it actually works from a scientific/tech pesrpective... should we have to re-build civilization (ala Infomagic) this knowledge is critical. This same character from the book also said something like "If we have electricity, we can re-build civilization".

Was the reference to the book fictional, or is there really something available like 'The Way Things Work'?"

You need to get hold of the following, price is $895 for $30,000 worth of books (so they say...)

"AppropriateTechnology Library On Microfiche The Appropriate Technology Microfiche Library

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You will have at the tip of your fingers information on agricultural tools and techniques, improved cookstoves, solar/wind/water power, biogas, transportation, health care, communications, small industries, and all other crop storage, water supply, forestry, aqua- culture, small scale technology topics.Order It Now

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Yes, the system includes the The Appropriate Technology Sourcebook on CD, which means you have the best annotated appropriate technology bibiography available to help you find the book you need.

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The AT Sourcebook on CD rom eliminates time consuming trips to the library and instead gives access in minutes to numerous resources in your area of interest. If you decide to order a paper copy of one of the books you have on microfiche, the ordering information is right in the AT Sourcebook.

Using library catalogue systems and actually locating the subjects you want are often the most complicated and time-consuming aspect of research. The AT Microfiche Library's simple cataloguing system and "card catalog" are conveniently located in the AT Sourcebook. It's easy to use so the books are easy to find.

The Appropriate Technology Sourcebook is available on CD-ROM! In the next section are hyperlinks to samples of the Sourcebook. They are in PDF format and you must adobe reader to view them. If you buy the soucre book CD it is included.

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The link is:-

http://www.y2kchaos.com/s35p315.htm

Cheers, Andy

P.S. You can buy hand held MF readers for, I think, $140.

-- Andy (andy_rowland@msn.com), November 28, 1998.

Andy: Thanks for your answer, to say it was more than I expected would be an understatement! I was surprised to see that this was on the y2kchaos site, since I go there every week. Guess I missed it. Anyway, I will look into it, and post any further info that I find out if it turns out that folks here are interested too. Thanks again.

BTW, Do you know what happened to the month of October or November on that site. October used to be there... I was waiting for November, went there, and found that October was gone and November still isn't there???

-- Rob Michaels (sonofdust@net.com), November 28, 1998.

Don't know what happened to those months either Rob...

If I ever get my act together in '99 I would be interested in purchasing it (probably sold out if left too late:-( )

Can always be donated to Oxfam if y2k is a damp squib (fat chance:-))

-- Andy (andy_rowland@msn.com), November 28, 1998.

Thanks again Andy. I owe you a proper Bitter and some bubble and squeak!

"damp squib"? You lot do have a different way of talking!

-- Rob Michaels (sonofdust@net.com), November 28, 1998.

This is one heck of a thread! I guess what really "blew me away" this>/i> time with Infomagic (since I always get blown away with his treatises!) is the argument that he makes that even if it were possible to "fix" all the non-compliant Y2K code, the residual bugs introduced as part of the "fixes" will still be enough to bring everything down. That is mind boggling.... Just a couple of notes based on comments:

1) Andy, I don't think that we have a year's head start, because a lot of what is going to hit with Y2K will be when people realize what is about to happen, and then panic (e.g., bank runs). I think this will happen April 1999, when New York State, Candada, Japan, etc., roll over to fiscal year 2000 and Y2K problems suddenly become Big News. Four months head start is more like it!

2) Diane, if every single person, today, saw Y2K for what it was and actually decided to prepare, the result would be ... The End Of The World As We Know It. Because there are not enough "lifeboats" on this "sinking ship" for everyone, and once people figure that out (as they will next year), it will all boil down to: Y2K is here, and time has been called, and you are wherever you are in terms of your own personal preparations.

-- Jack (jsprat@eld.net), November 28, 1998.

italics off.

-- Jack (jsprat@eld.net), November 28, 1998.

Jack,

1) Andy, I don't think that we have a year's head start, because a lot of what is going to hit with Y2K will be when people realize what is about to happen, and then panic (e.g., bank runs). I think this will happen April 1999, when New York State, Candada, Japan, etc., roll over to fiscal year 2000 and Y2K problems suddenly become Big News. Four months head start is more like it!

Yep, you're right, look out also for Jan 1st-4th for the Jo Anne effect, and institutions that project forward one year.

Look out also for the stock market and derivatives crash.

Look out for Japan finally committing hare kare (-3 sp?).

Look out for the EURO-debacle, due to be inaugurated on Jan 1st '99, many people believe this could close the markets.

Look out for (inser the blank) ....... ;o)

But a years worth of emotional/psychological head start *is* a godsend:o)

-- Andy (andy_rowland@msn.com), November 28, 1998.

I have a sneaking suspicion that when Cory says

Do not take the Weather Reports or yourself too seriously. If you do not have a sense of humor, turn back now.

he's got one or more of thesse reasons: 1) so he can sleep at night; 2) so he can keep himself a little detached from it; 3) he doesn't want to frighten little children; 4) his lawyer's advice.

-- Tom Carey (tomcarey@mindspring.com), November 28, 1998.

# # # 19981128

Come on, folks. The purpose of Cory's dichotomy is obvious! Ever watch M.A.S.H.? ... Sometimes the horrors of reality are so terrifying, that humor is the only road to survival!!

Self-deprecation (i.e., not taking one's self too seriously ) is healthy in the face of insanity. We did it all the time to survive horror in Vietnam! It's not a form of denial! It's a coping mechanism to overcome the absurd: As in, how bad the Year 2000 Techno-Ambush is absolutely going to be.

It's not going to be a heartwarming experience to watch/hear of -- or not watch, or hear of, as the case is likely to be -- loved ones by the millions dying by "unspeakable" means as a result of Y2K. Think about _that! Makes you grimace, doesn't it? ... Well! Get over it -- and get used to the thought! Your attitude just might make survival tolerable enough to bear in spite of the horrors.

I learned that lesson in Vietnam. It's given ( desensitized ) me the "stomach" to go forth and prepare for the Techno-Ambush. The American public ( especially ) has gone soft emotionally and mentally over the years. Never had to face the horrors of mass destruction.

Of course they've innured themselves to accepting our own government perpetrating genocide ( e.g., Waco; OKC Bombing; WTC Bombing ) on Americans. So, maybe they'll take it better than I think.

Cory's RIGHT ON! Like it or not, get over it! Ridiculing precise timings is the petulance of a denial-butt-head looking for an escape from the reality, swirling in the background noise of the brain.

Face it! Get over it! Then continue to continue preparing like there's going to be a tomorrow. You may be one of the strong to survive and help your loved ones.

Regards, Bob Mangus

"I'm a computer 'Y2K-bomb' technician. If you see me running, try to keep up." RMangus "Sometimes a majority simply means that all of the fools are of one mind." Author Unknown # # #

-- Robert Mangus (rmangus@mail.netquest.com), November 28, 1998.

Arlin -- it turns out there were only 19 Chernobyl-type (RBMK) reactors built, all in what used to be the Soviet Union. Info from Soviet Nuclear Power Plant Designs

Of these 19 RBMK's, 14 are still operable, 2 have been decommissioned, 3 (of the 4 at Chernobyl) have been "permanently shut down." One more (Kursk 5) is "under construction,." but apparently won't be finished for a while, pending funding.

(This is on the website of the International Nuclear Safety Center, operated by Argonne National Laboratory for the United States Department of Energy.) There are two cgi menu boxes. I got the RBMK list by selecting all the countries listed, and "RBMK" .

Altogether 47 Russian-designed reactors of other types are in operation in the former Soviet Union and Eastern Europe, according to this site.

-- Tom Carey (tomcarey@mindspring.com), November 29, 1998.

Genes for a panic response to threat are millions of times more likely to pass on to future generations than genes for contemplation...the runner wasn't as likely to get eaten as the thinker. Rationality is a great idea and ideal, but we never had the time for it; we don't have time for it now, and thus we don't have the mind for it. If people can not make rational decisions, how can democratic governments solve problems in complex systems? Obviously, they can't. (from Requiem http://www.dieoff.org/) And remember, a pessimist has fewer unpleasant surprises.

-- A Lemming (sheeple@hotmail.com), November 29, 1998.

RD: You said "Arnie, Thats quite a psychlogical blind spot!"

Yes, indeed it is. One of my first questions to my brother (an avid reader and history major) after he "got it", was "..and who will save the books?"

You're absolutely right about knowledge being power but if this whole thing comes down the way Infomagic suggests, then there will be a huge backlash against technology. Saving the books will not be easy. Such an undercurrent has always existed (see "Anti-Intellectualism in American Life" - can't recall the author at the moment.) There are a thousand 'leaders' like Cambodia's infamous Pol Pot waiting in the wings to create their own New World Order. I'm not so sure your 'knowledge' would be welcomed in such places. Maintaining power and 'empowering the people' are viewed in many universes as mutually exclusive.

I keep trying to have faith that our more human side will win out but it's becomming increasingly difficult. Yesterday, during the grand kick off to the 'Great December 25th Buy-A-Thon' a local Target store had just 100 "Furby's", this years 'gotta buy it or you're not a GOO PARENT. All the 'good parents'lined up prior to 6am for a chance (oh lucky them) at having the honor of purchasing one. Seems a couple overzealous shoppers got in each other's way and a shoving match ensued. It escalated to a mini-riot and the police had to be called.

These are the people who will not listen, who will not do the research, who will not pay attention, and who will not prepare. But if so much as a tiny whiff of the odor of the feces hits the fan, they will react the way they always have...badly and with anger.

For what it's worth, I agree with and support your suggestion on saving the books. I will try to save what I can. I have already encouraged my brother to adopt 10 books to protect and keep (about all he'll be able to escape with should this thing get that ugly).

You know that I abhore book burning, but it certainly wouldn't be the first time long term profits were traded for short term gains would it? I mean that's what this whole Y2K mess boils down to isn't it?

Of what use is a book to someone who can't read?

-Arnie

-- Arnie Rimmer (Arnie_Rimmer@usa.net), November 29, 1998.

People ARE not preparing, and there is not enough time left for them all to prepare...it's that simple. -- Arlin

Its NEVER that simple. Some ARE preparing, and are developing the skills and abilities to TEACH others around them to prepare. Y2K preparation is an evolutionary spiral, not past tense. A baby usually isnt birthed all at once. It takes nine months and some hard labor before you see the results.

Since our civilization is the sum of it's component parts, this will not 'strip our civilization down to it's bare essence', but rather rip great bloody chunks out of the social structures both in this country and abroad. -- Arlin

Yes. Possibly. But as Robert said in another thread, all TEOTWAWKI is local. In the end game those communities that prepare to see that the greatest number make it are the ones who will be able to carry on. Restoration, IMHO, is directly linked to electrical power, next communications, next water and food, next heat and shelter, and so on, with ATTITUDE and spirit underlying it all. This country and world has a shifting window of opportunity in 1999 to determine where the mission critical infrastructure is and to declare an all out focus/war on those potential problems/solutions. IF OUR GOVERNMENT DOESNT DO IT FOR US, THEN WE DO IT FOR THEM AND US AND THE CHILDREN.

We *are* going to lose significant portions of our infrastructure, and we *are* going to see significant portions of the population die. At best our preparations can be focussed to insure the maintenance of the highest standards of living possible for ourselves and our local community, but in the end that is *all* we will be able to achieve. -- Arlin

The END (whatever that means) is always a new beginning. We will be able to achieve a great deal IF as many local communities as possible focus and prepare to insure the maintenance of the highest standards of living possible (and those are not to be judged by past standards either). IMAGINE if ALL, or most, communities, around the planet did this. What would the Y2K end game be then? Wed likely keep something worth working for, thats what, and thats what works.

Mike is right - we've got to concentrate on solar and other renewables (wood, methane, etc) and stockpile resources so that our children and their children will be able to carry on the rebuilding process. -- Arlin

As you, Mike and others around the globe have noted, there are lots of alternatives out there. We need to do this for ALL our children, and their childrens children.

Diane, if every single person, today, saw Y2K for what it was and actually decided to prepare, the result would be ... The End Of The World As We Know It. Because there are not enough "lifeboats" on this "sinking ship" for everyone, and once people figure that out (as they will next year), it will all boil down to: Y2K is here, and time has been called, and you are wherever you are in terms of your own personal preparations. -- Jack

Well, Jack, whats actually wrong with changing The End Of The World As We Know It to something better? There are plenty of ways to build the local lifeboats for everyone. The Earth, our ship in space, is not sinking yet, although she has lots of leaks in the interdependent ecosystems. What IS sinking, or at the very least, tilting sideways, is our technological society not our we the people societies. It will boil down to wherever you AND YOUR LOCAL COMMUNITY is in terms of your own personal and community preparations will be the deciding factor in how well we ALL, globally, come through Y2K.

Diane

Remember, the sun still shines during the day, even if the lights are off.

-- Diane J. Squire (sacredspaces@yahoo.com), November 29, 1998.

"I'm a computer 'Y2K-bomb' technician. If you see me running, try to keep up."

Reminds me of: A bear was charging at two men who were unarmed..The first started running and the second said: You can outrun a bear. The first said, "I don'thave to, I only have to outrun you". Above comments are indeed a full cranium load of sparks. Charon

-- Charon (Thatplce@below.com), November 29, 1998.

Damp squib = wet fuse.

Rest of conversation - doesn't anything added.

-- Robert A. Cook, P.E. (Kennesaw, GA) (cook.r@csaatl.com), November 29, 1998.

The AT Microfiche is OK if you have the grand. "The Way Things Work #1 and 2" are MUCH MORE ECONOMICAL!!! They Do exist as books, probably out of print at this time but must haves for 2003. I used to have a copy but then I moved away from home. i have been looking in the used book shops for a couple of months now......

Chuck

-- Chuck a night driver (rienzoo@en.com), November 29, 1998.

Chuck:

Could this be related (same author?):

http://www.amazon.com/exec/obidos/ASIN/0 395938473/o/qid=912409850/sr=2-1/002-3553360-7687824

-Arnie

-- Arnie Rimmer (Arnie_Rimmer@usa.net), November 30, 1998.

Arnie:

Yup, the 90's version. We need the 2 '88 volumes for our purposes, however, as we will have to build up to the relevant machine tool technology.

DEATH TO LUDDITES!

cr

-- Chuck a night driver (rienzoo@en.com), November 30, 1998.

Chuck, Arnie:

Thanks for answering my question about if this actually existed. I'll go for checking out the books before the Micro Fiche. Chuck, since you had them at one time do you remember who the author was of the first set, same as the 90's version?

-- Rob Michaels (sonofdust@net.com), November 30, 1998.

Re: Lucifer's Hammer

Just finished reading this book (thanks to all who recommended it...!). Here are some of the titles:

The Way Things Work, volume II; "The 1911 Britannica;" An 1894 book of formulae for such things as soap, with a whole section on how to brew beer starting with barley grains..."The Beekeeper's Manual", Veterinary handbooks; Instuctor's lab manuals starting with basic inorganic chemistry and running up through organic synthesis;

The Amateur Radio Handbook; Farmer's Almanac; The Rubber Handbook; Peter's "Pour Yourself a House" 2 books on how to make Portland cement. The Complete Gunsmith and a set of Army field manuals on infantry-weapons maintenance. Maintneance manuals for most cars and trucks. Wheeler's "Home Repairs" 3 books on hydroponic gardening..." (starts on page 399)

The character (dan forester) sprayed the pages of each book with Raid, popped in a few moth balls, sealed them in zip lock baggies and dumped them in his septic tank...

This book scared the hell out of me, and if I learned one thing, it was have a rifle of some sort; if you don't, then nothing you own is truely yours...

-- Okum (ws000@aol.com), November 30, 1998.

Re: Lucifer's Hammer

Other good books:

The Legacy of Heorot by Larry Niven, Jerry Pournelle Alas Babylon by Pat Frank

-- Yin (excop@police.com), December 02, 1998.