I am asking this for my parents who live in Mpls/St Paul area. Does anyone have any idea about NSP's readiness? I know many folks who live in this area and I don't know of anyone who is worried at all. Please let me know any info regarding this company. Thank you

-- Anonymous, November 26, 1998

Answers

Lisa, following is the Year 2000 section of the latest SEC 10Q from Northern States Power Co./ MN. The good news is that they started in 1996, and have now spent about 40% of their estimated remediation budget - which is ahead of some utilities. The bad news is that with over " 30 million lines of code" they have a big job to tackle, and the projections for completion do not really address any differences between repair and testing phases, so we can't tell the time frames they are leaving for each phase.

Also, while they are obviously addressing mission critical items first, and have "accelerated completion" of some, they do not break down the "75,000 programs...more than 30 million lines of code... also the thousands of hardware and embedded system components in use throughout NSP" into what percentage is critical and what is not. This is one of the more difficult and, in certain ways, ambiguous 10Q's I've run across when it comes to determining exactly what they have left to do. NSP does admit to the possibility of disruptions, however: "NSP may possibly experience limited interruptions to some aspects of its activities, relating to information technology, operations, administrative or otherwise. " This is a more straightforward statement than I've found in some other utility 10Q's and the insertion of that "or otherwise" covers ANYTHING. I have developed a real admiration for the quality of some businesses' legal staffs!

Here's the whole thing to read for yourself:

TECHNOLOGY CHANGES FOR THE YEAR 2000 (Y2K) - NSP expects to incur significant costs to modify or replace existing technology, including computer software, for uninterrupted operation in the Year 2000 and beyond. In 1996, NSP's Board of Directors approved funding to address development and remediation efforts related to Y2K. A committee made up of senior management is leading NSP's initiatives to identify Y2K related issues and remediate business processes as necessary.

NSP's Y2K program covers not only NSP's 2,000 computer applications, consisting of about 75,000 programs and totaling more than 30 million lines of code, but also the thousands of hardware and embedded system components in use throughout NSP. Embedded systems perform mission-critical functions in all parts of operations including power generation, distribution, communications and business operations.

NSP has implemented a Y2K methodology consistent with state-of-the-art best practices and standards within the utility industry. This seven-step process includes:

- - Discovery of possible date-related logic in components, systems, and processes. - - Assessment of potential problems. - - Plan design to address the problem. - - Remediation to resolve the problem. - - Testing to verify that the solutions are workable. - - Implementation of the solution into production. - - Closure through re-testing and documentation.

As NSP has developed more detailed plans for completion of the Y2K project, several of the completion targets have been revised to align them more logically with release of Y2K compliant package software and to coordinate logically with scheduled plant outages. NSP time table for Y2K completion is as follows:

- - By Dec. 31, 1998 - Completion of all Y2K efforts on 70 percent of mission-critical systems and processes. - - By Mar. 31, 1999 - Completion of all Y2K efforts on 90 percent of mission-critical systems and processes. - - By June 30, 1999 - Completion of all Y2K efforts on mission-critical systems and processes, completion of all nuclear plant remediation in accordance with Nuclear Regulatory Commission guidelines, and finalization of all contingency planning. - - By Dec. 31, 1999 - Remediate low-priority applications, complete all testing and implementation, and final closure.

In conjunction with this logical change in timing, NSP has accelerated completion of primary and secondary systems consistent with NSP's overall plan for system remediation prior to the Year 2000.

NSP is communicating with its key suppliers, customers and business partners regarding their Y2K progress, particularly in software and embedded component areas, to determine the areas in which NSP's operations are vulnerable to those parties' failure to complete their remediation efforts. NSP is currently evaluating and initiating follow-up actions regarding the responses from these parties as appropriate. NSP is also working closely with the Electric Power Research Institute, MAPP, the Nuclear Energy Institute, the North American Electric Reliability Council (NERC), and other utilities to enhance coordination, system reliability and compliance with industry and regulatory requirements. NSP has made significant progress in the implementation of its Y2K plan. Based upon the information currently known regarding its internal operations and assuming successful and timely completion of its remediation plan, NSP does not anticipate significant business disruptions from its internal systems due to the Y2K issue. However, NSP may possibly experience limited interruptions to some aspects of its activities, relating to information technology, operations, administrative or otherwise. NSP is considering such potential occurrences in planning for its most reasonably likely worst case scenarios.

Additionally, risk exists regarding the non-compliance of third parties with key business or operational importance to NSP. Y2K problems affecting key customers, interconnected utilities, fuel suppliers and transporters, telecommunications providers or financial institutions could result in lost power or gas sales, reductions in power production or transmission or internal functional and administrative difficulties on the part of NSP. NSP is not presently aware of any such situations; however, occurrences of this type, if severe, could have material adverse impacts upon the business, operating results or financial condition of NSP. Consequently, there can be no assurance that NSP will be able to identify and correct all aspects of the Y2K problem that affect it in sufficient time, or that the costs of achieving Y2K readiness will not be material.

NSP is currently updating contingency plans for all material areas of Y2K risk and is on track to meet the contingency planning schedule set forth by NERC. Among the areas contingency planning will address include delays in completion in NSP's remediation plans, failure or incomplete remediation results and failure of key third party contacts to be Y2K compliant.

Through September 1998, NSP had spent approximately $10.5 million for Y2K remediation. The amount of additional development and remediation costs necessary for NSP to prepare for the Year 2000 is estimated to be approximately $14 million.

-- Anonymous, November 26, 1998

Lisa,

I live in a suburb of Minneapolis. I have attended every utility hearing where NSP has testified about their Y2k project. I have talked to many people in the metro area, many of them working with utilities (either employed or associated with insiders).

I have read their web site statement and their 10Q.

I have no proof they will make it or not make it. They admit they got a late start (off the record of course) -- I believe a NRC audit of their Monticello plant said something to the same effect (which I've read but don't remember verbatim).

On the plus side, NSP belongs to the Electric Power Research Inst. Y2K Embedded Systems Program. They do testify to the various Y2k hearings. They do have a project and fancy slides. They do have a web page on their Y2k project (that never seems to get updated). They do make 10Q statments on Y2K. They are spending money (how much on embedded systems, they do not make this totally clear; their 10Q dollar amount is mostly on their I.T. (software) expenses -- hardware falls under general equipment upgrade categories not fully isolated out for Y2K.

Anyway, bottom line -- most of the insiders feel that a credible WORSE case happening would be 1-2 weeks of electric utility operations chaos followed by third world quality output perhaps on a rationed basis (that is, if the railroads do not have their act together). This is not a prediction at all. NSP has only committed to stockpiling a month of coal -- they burn 4 trainloads of coal a day. They are considering doing more but no committment yet. I don't like this -- the electric utility for Washington DC has committed to stockpiling 3 months of coal. (The NSP web site mentions that their Sherco plant alone burns 3 trainloads of coal a day.) (See http://www.nspco.com)

If the railroads (mostly BNSF--see http://www.bnsf.com) are unable to deliver coal in January, then the expert prediction is that NSP will ration electricity to stretch out the use of the coal. An example would be (this is NOT official--only a hypothetical example) would be something like 4 hours on, 4 hours off where it is rotated throughout the service area -- this alone would double the coal but if combined with voluntary energy conservation, perhaps it could triple the time-use of the coal. Going 4 hours without electricity will not cause a house to have its water pipes freeze even in the coldest weather.

BNSF was the only major utility to refuse to testify before the state government on their Y2k project this May 18. Their web site says they will be done with their Y2k project Sept 1999 -- (that is calling things close if you ask me).

At a minimum, I advise being prepared for 1-2 weeks of electric utility chaos. This can be cheaply and safely done with a kerosene space heater, 2 weeks of fuel (52 gallons), and a battery operated carbon monoxide detector and fire alarm detector. Follow the safety instructions, do not sleep with the heater on, make sure their is adequate ventilation for the heater. The cost for all of this is under $275. If you don't open the heater until you need it, you could sell it later and the net cost would be under $225. As for what you do with the fuel if you don't need it, you could cook with it (some kerosene space heaters allow cooking on it--and there are dedicated kerosene cooking devices too).

Home Depot has a Kero-Sun Omni 105 heater for $115 that heats 950 square feet for 12-18 hours on 2 gallons of kerosene. I calculated the above fuel needs on a 12 hour per 2 gallon basis. (3 gallons a day).

Among the people who share my prudent paranoia are those inside the state government studying the situation too (I won't name names and departments in the government though).

Another option is a fireplace insert but this costs more money. Also a power generator backup but that costs more money too.

Hope this helps.

Roleigh Martin http://ourworld.compuserve.com/homepages/roleigh_martin http:/webAlias.com/roleigh (shortcut to the above)

-- Anonymous, November 27, 1998

I am beginning to hear rumors that NSP is stating that they are Y2K compliant, but I have not been able to find this in print anywhere? Does anyone know if this is true and where I can find the information?

-- Anonymous, December 31, 1998

Adele,

The following was posted (and is excerpted from)usenet newsgroup comp.software.year-2000 today. I'm assuming the person who posted is in the Minnesota area.

From: genroberts@aol.com

I caught a bit of the local news this evening. A 'company spokesman' from NSP(Northern States Power), was shown at a 'press conference' announcing that NSP will be 100% compliant.

Statement: "y2k represents no threat to our customers"

Statement: "70% of our systems are compliant and the rest aren't far behind."

Statement: "You will have uninterrupted power in 2000."

I hope he's right.

The expected low here tonight (December 30, 1998) is -14; 14 degrees below zero.

-- Anonymous, December 31, 1998

Rick and Adele:

There have been two newspaper articles posted on links that have reported the same information. When I come across the post again, I'll add the story link to this thread.

-- Anonymous, January 01, 1999

Here's where I found the link. Go to www.startribune.com. Use their search engine at the bottom of intro page. Type in NSP, enter and their story should come up. The story contains an interesting prediction from NSP's Y2k project manager.

-- Anonymous, January 01, 1999