This is probably a stupid question, but I will ask it anyways. Lets say in the absolute worst case, the whole national grid goes down, Does anyone have an estimate of how much time it would take to get it running again?

Thanks, Diane

-- Anonymous, November 23, 1998

Answers

Diane,

It's impossible to answer this question with any degree of certainty, however:

1) The "national power grid" in the U.S. is kind of a misnomer. There are 4 major interconnects that are not tightly bound together. There are many more regional "control areas" that while, dependent on each other, can operate more or less autonomously. So, a total, Y2k-induced cascading failure of the "national power grid" is rather unlikely.

2) On a regional basis - how long to get it running if an entire regional transmission network fails? It's impossible to predict. Each region is different. Although there are many "performance" standards, there are no standard equipment specifications, so the things that could fail in one region might not be the same as the next region over.

3) It depends on how, and if, many things fail at one time. The more failure points, the longer the recovery time.

My best advice would to be, look at your own electric company, and the region to which it's connected. Find out how well (in your own mind) your local power company is doing, and then take it to the next level - the regional connections that your local power company has. Ask your power company who their power pool operator is, then contact the power pool operator.

We're not going to know what the impact is going to be, or what the duration is going to be, until Y2k actually happens. Prudence dictates advance preparation for your own most conservative predictions (fears?) based on the research you conduct.

Best of luck - there's plenty of people here that can give you pointers to information and advice in interpreting the information that you collect.

-- Anonymous, November 23, 1998

Diane, no question is stupid, but some questions just cannot be answered with any accuracy at all. In the case you cite, I think the answer would fall between one hour and years. A lot would depend on what else goes down (telecoms? banks? transportation?) and where, and how the public reacts (fires, looting, destruction? or determined, helpful calm?) There are just too many variables for any forecasting, not to mention there is no prior experience to form a base for comparison. The lights are still on, but in the area of prediction we're all groping in the dark. Much is out of any individual's control. Taking whatever actions we can to prepare IS within our power, however, so concentrating on that is our best line of defense. It also places us in that "determined, helpful, calm" category, and we need as many people there as possible!

-- Anonymous, November 23, 1998

Diane, If the Grid does go down for any length of time (a week) It will probably be down for quite a while. Like Bonnie and Rick pointed out it is based on numerous unknowns. The biggies being whether the Telcos ,the Railroads and the petrol producers/distributors can function. If there is no telecomm nothing moves and if nothing moves then there is no more distribution of coal/petrol for generation of power. Also another aspect to think about is what the government reaction to a functioning electric provider will be. If things go down, Martial Law WILL be declared, if FEMA has to it will point a gun at the technicians of the power companies and force them to work. I fear that the the previous post of the government or Army Engineers "taking over" is quite possible. One dead person is a great motivator if it is necessary to get the power up to save hundreds/thousands. In that event all production goes thru FEMA first!! Anything that is in surplus of FEMA's needs might be distributed to the areas customers but that would not be a given. All power resources would be restricted for FEMA/Military use in government control of the situation. If the militaries needs are met then power would go to essential services(Hospitals, Shelters, food/water distribution, etc) NOT for individual use. As Utilities came back up online they would be used by FEMA to get the situation under contraol region by region. Only after there is reasonable control over the regions (minimal riots/demonstrations/looting) would power be restored to non-essential services. Due to lack of coal shipments, faulty/intermittent telcom service, infrastructure damage, and FEMA control over the Grid until the situation stabilizes I would presume about a 3-9 month brownout/blackout situation IF the Grid goes down for more than a week.

Also if power is out that long you could expect confiscation of private alternative power generated by sloar/wind/water systems. FEMA has executive authority to commander anything and everything it *thinks* it needs. Hide your food/power and weapons... they will be the first things confiscated.

-- Anonymous, November 23, 1998

With all this contention regarding what will impact the power utilities. How many utilities are using NT as a O/S?

This report has just come through which will cause great consternation amongst those who have remediated their systems and feel that they are far along the track to becoming compliant. http://www.ntgov.com/gcn/gcn/1998/november23/48.htm

It seems that this supposedly new information ( released after the Good Samaritan act has been passed) will put many back to the drawing board.

This 'NEW' information will now require new hardware and software to be installed before the systems can become compliant.

How will the companies who have finished remediating their systems feel when they are informed that the RTC complaint is real and they now have to go back to square one?

To my mind this has just put back remediation amongst all companies at least six months.

All the work which has been done since the Co's were told that RTC's were not a worry has now been thrown out the door.

-- Anonymous, November 25, 1998

Nick, you bring up some good points. More new information on the compliancy/non-compliancy of various systems is coming out all the time, as the research into dating problems continues. Those in Information Technology have always had a race to keep up with the fast pace of changes. Now they are falling into the same category as medical doctors, who are so busy doing their jobs they have to *fight* to deliberately make time to read and inform themselves about new breakthroughs and/or problems. The good ones DO put the effort out, but unfortunately many don't.

We all want our doctors to be on top of any new drug therapies, or medical treatments. We want them to know about any side-effects BEFORE they start prescribing to us. And we all have read plenty of stories over the years about the consequences if they don't, and the law suits that follow. I consider it inevitable that some percentage of year 2000 "fixes" will fail for lack of intensive, up-to-date knowledge by those doing the repairs. It's a fact of human nature that no group of people will be on top of everything all the time. There is a time frame to the learning curve, as well as a deadline for remediation. Humans make mistakes. Even if everything was thought to be 100% remediated, there would still be a certain amount of failures. Perfection is outside our capability.

-- Anonymous, November 25, 1998

Realizing that the possibility of the grid being down for an indefinite perios time leads one to consider contingencies. Ideally, neighborhood self-sustainability, self-reliance would be the most comforting contingency to have in place. But is it possible? I am trying to find collaborators in mobilizing creativity in coming up with cheap and simple ideas for implementation,i.e.neighbors chipping in for wind and sun electrical generating devices as well as generators and fuel to have electricity at a centrally located place (school, church) for communications, washing machines, or whatever is deemed important. Also, individual households could find ways to generate electricity, health clubs could hook up stationary bicycles to generate electricity (just joking, kind of), whatever. I wish more of us would focus on creating self-sustainability as THE contingency preparation for y2k.

-- Anonymous, November 30, 1998

My advice is to find an electricity-less way to do whatever you want to do.

Heat: Woodstoves are good. A fireplace, although much of the heat goes up the chimney, still does contribute some warmth. You can get inserts or special grates to make it more efficient. A gas stove (provided the gas is still delivered to your pipelines) can help.

For cooking: same as above, or try a solar oven. One place you can get one is realgoods.com (I don't have an interest in them, I'm just a customer.)

For washing: a small washer that needs no electricity has been available recently. See it at realgoods.com

Refrigerator: I don't really know about this one, trying to work it out. May try getting a small car refrig and try to power with solar and batteries. Or - it will be winter - how about a box in the garage, basement, or shed?

If we do generate electricity on the local level, and I hope more communities do, I suspect it would be reserved for official communications between communities, refrigeration of drugs, electricity to run hospital machines, etc.

-- Anonymous, November 30, 1998