Another Awareness Barometergreenspun.com : LUSENET : TimeBomb 2000 (Y2000) : One Thread
Check the number of transactions on major stock exchanges in this latter part of Nov., 1998. Then check them in Dec., 1998. I think there will be sell-offs in Dec. People will sell stocks that they will not have a profit on (or small profit). They will not have a capital gains tax to pay on these in April, 1999. I expect people to sell stocks in Jan. that they will have major capital gains on thinking if they sell quickly in Jan. before the market goes down they can get their profits and they don't have to declare the capital gains until April, 2000. It is possible there will not be a way to pay in 2000. There may not be an IRS. The odds are in favor of selling in Jan. I believe the smart money will do that.
-- Marcella Shaw (firstname.lastname@example.org), November 22, 1998
who knows? I think (really feel in my spirit) that something BIG is on the horizon. And its not just y2k. It is probably the collapse of the ecomomy. If I had stocks, I would sell now.
For some good research material go to
www.wallstreetcity.com and PEI-intl.com
-- WAYNE WITCHER (WWITCHER@MVTEL.NET), November 22, 1998.
Wayne is right. I sold my mutual funds before the big loss and was glad I did. I have a gut feeling that TSWHTF sooner. The media is speeding up their Y2K coverage, and the government is printing more money for the run on the banks (they know it's going to happen). Now's the time to get rid of those charge and ATM cards. Get use to dealing in cash. Buy money orders for those mail away bills and pay in person for the others.
-- bardou (email@example.com), November 22, 1998.
I have followed current events for several years. Even before Y2K was widely known. Since you are in the market you know that conventional rationel holds that the cost/earnings ratio should be considered before an investment is made.
Right now, I am reading brokers statements such as "markets will hit 12000 in 99". HOW DO THEY FIGURE. PLEASE HELP ME UNDERSTAND. Everyone knows that profits are down and that growth will slow in 99. We have a global pandema on our hands and most people do not know it.
I am then left to believe that the current bounce and certainly any future bounce predating major corrections in global economies are nothing more than speculative bubbles. Most brokers are playing a pyramid scheme. How else can it be? Look at the recent wild growth in internet stocks which at best only promise to break even in distant future.
For good reading you really should find "blood money and greed" by Cliff Ford. This writer places it in a well balanced perspective.
From one market watcher to another, thanks for the advance notice. Sounds real reasonable. ww
-- WAYNE WITCHER (WWITCHER@MVTEL.NET), November 22, 1998.
I just heard on the radio Friday that the price/earnings ratio of the S&P 500 is at 35:1. Historically the ratio is supposed to be about 14:1?
It's the summer of 1929 all over again. When is our October, 1929 coming?
-- Kevin (firstname.lastname@example.org), November 22, 1998.
Problem is, there is so much more "baby boomer" retirement and life insurance money going to the market, but the fundemental fraction of where toout it has remained the same.
So if (Money going in) goes up, and (amount of real worth of the market is about the same, or only slowly growing) then:
(total Money in market)/(worth of everything in market) has got to go up, and up, and up, => so (dollar/share ) is meaningless as a limit compared to past markets.
UNTIL, the baby boomers start selling (all at once, just about) to start retiring at age 55-59.5-65-70 take your pick. You've got "the early retirement option (before saving get depleted/let's spend it on myself)". The "wait until the IRA is legal and not taxed" option. The traditional retirement option. The "wait until social security changes option." And the "I'd better retire now and pull my savings before all these other codgers pull their savings out and cause a panic" panic.
So I figure a severe short term drop in late 1999 through early 2000, then a long recovery until 2005-2010. THen a long drop for many years as gen-x starts savings, but the baby boom is still selling to finance health care and "fun retirement" options.
pushing the same number of company's "up" in price
-- Robert A. Cook, P.E. (Kennesaw, GA) (email@example.com), November 22, 1998.
Late December 1998
1. Even a blind person can see that the fat lady is tuning it up as far as the stock market goes.
2. Santa Claus is history now. The last buck has been blown and all that's left are the bills coming in. The "Christmas Spirit" is over now.
3. It's the end of the quarter/year and most Mutual funds have to pretty up the annual reports. Some have taken hits and don't want to have to put it into the book, so they sell the losers and buy the 'darlings' to show everyone how utterly brilliant they were to have the current 'rage stocks'. Or, conversely, they buy the 'real dogs' and push them as 'beaten down bargains', depending on the type of fund.
4. Most companies are getting the last data (cold hard facts) about the 4q/year. This, in quite a lot of companies, isn't really all that spiffy. Imports/exports from/to Asia in particular will be interesting to see. Latin America?
Leaks will start about this data. Quite a few won't meet the "street's" expectations. Even though the expectations keep getting lowered, or have you noticed that?
5. Stock transactions have a three (3) day settlement time, so he who owns the paper at the close of business on the 28th of December is the "old maid" in the New Year. I would expect the selling to rattle a few more cages. Last trade day to shed the paper is about Monday of that week, I think.
6. There is an ever increasing amount of "talking heads" soothsaying the banking situation even now. This will only grow. This too will feed into the market.
7. Japan and it's problems will be news, even to a greater extent than it is now, both in the newspapers and on the business news channels. The few, (relatively), who look at or listen to these things will begin to talk amongst their groups of contacts. Maybe even begin to pull some chips off the table.
8. Every year we get "year end tax related selling" (see #3). I expect more than usual this time around due to the wild ride since October and the rest of items mentioned. Several of the Big Hitters, (notice the CEO, CFO, CIO, COO bail out rate?) will take the loot and scoot, (it's known as TYMARLAT). That is"take your money and run like a thief". It is a new tax year for them too. Do you really believe that they don't have a little itty bitty clue? Been watching the M&A activity?
I expect that several little guys will want to book some cash also. Hence, there will probably be selling. To what extent, and to what over all effect? I'll know come next January just like you. My crystal ball blanks out at much past Right Now, so I really don't know. So there will be some interesting times for the market.
Joe/Jane six-pack hear only the DOW report (30 stocks), and if they listen at all they say "the market went down (up)" today. I think perhaps down is in the cards. Anyway, sentiment follows. Feel good or feel bad depending on several factors including the market.
9. Several people that I talk to, yes, I still have a real life, have stated that they were pulling the plug on their 401(k) plans come January. That will only serve to steepen the curve I think.
What really gets me is the people that think that because their only in a mutual fund they won't be affected by the 'market'. They also don't 'get' y2k either, so go figure.
My opinion, and my OPINION only.
-- sweetolebob (La) (firstname.lastname@example.org), November 22, 1998.
S.O.B. Keep going, you were on a roll....
10. Massive derivative exposure by hedge funds (Long term cap mgmt) and others
11. Debt compounding faster than GDP
12. Netgative U.S. savings rate
13. Trillions in bad loans in Japan, Brazil needing a $42 billion bailout, Russia currency devaluation and debt postponement, food riots
14. Chronic U.S. trade imbalances
15.The national debt and interest on it
-- Robert Michaels (email@example.com), November 22, 1998.
what about the simple fact that there has never in our history been an extended period of growth in the economy like there has been for the last 7 years or so... what goes up must come down.
7 fat years... 7 lean.
-- blue collar man (can't firstname.lastname@example.org), November 23, 1998.
Those of you with 401K's in Magellan and the like, who are *not* going to bail in January (unlike me), may have the option of transferring your hard-earned dosh now into an overnight money-market- type account without penalty - contact your 401K administrator, it may be an option for you if you are at all worried. Not as safe as houses but better than nothing.
Check out this link for a radio show that explains what SOB and Robert are on about:-
-- Andy (email@example.com), November 23, 1998.
FWIW, in the mail today I (and everyone else in the neighborhood) got a bulk rate solicitation for a free copy of"Millenium Day" . It's written by someone named K. DeMeritt, the president of Lear Financial. Maybe I'll send for it just for grins. Anyway, I thought this was important since it was sent to every house as junk mail and it's the first of what will likely be many more. Has anyone else got Y2K junk mail?
-- Robert Michaels (firstname.lastname@example.org), November 23, 1998.