If the nuclear power plants are shut down, will the eastern grids still be able to operate?

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I was told that if (1) grid goes down, the other (3) can cover it, but if (2) grids go down, then it would bring all (4)grids down. First I'd like to know if that is true. Secondly, my question is this: With approximately 110 nuclear power plants in the US, and approximately 100 of those in the eastern grids - if they do in fact shut the nuclear power plants down will the eastern grids be able to sustain enough power to stay on line? If anyone can answer this and supply me with a credible resouce for this information, it would be greatly appreciated.

-- Anonymous, November 21, 1998

Answers

Tell you what - I'll give you a source - you investigate - then report back to us with your findings.

www.pjm.com

This is the Pennsylvania-New Jersey-Maryland grid operator (highly dependent on nuclear power). Their phone number is (610)666-8980.

I look forward to the results of your interview with this "credible source".

-- Anonymous, November 21, 1998


I have to admitt that I am shocked in your answer Rick. This does not seem like an overly complicated question. You are the Electric Utility expert. Why didn't you answer the question directly?

-- Anonymous, November 23, 1998

I am sorry you find my answer "shocking". (No pun intended.) You are right, this is not an overly complicated question. The purpose of the euy2k.com website is to facilitate discussion, educate, and get people thinking, not to force feed my opinion as the final word. What is likely to have more of an impact on Souixie? Me calling PJM and reporting back on my findings or Souixie calling PJM and getting the information first hand?

Just FYI, Souixie wrote me a nice email back, thanked me for the info, said PJM would be called on Monday, and she would report back. Now, not only is he/she going straight to the "credible resource" to satisfy his/her curiousity, but is contributing to the body of knowledge that we all seek.

-- Anonymous, November 23, 1998


Siouxie:

Try the NERC site for the details on your question. www.nerc.com, look under the link "System Conditions". There you will find current status of all the Nuke Plants and assesments of the capacity margin and reserve margin for all of the NERC Regions.

The Nukes are the wild card in this game. Most regional margins are below 17% with the Nukes operating. With the plants shut down, you do the math for your region. Stability will be very difficult with out these plants available.

Jim

-- Anonymous, November 23, 1998


Rick,

I have been following this web-site for some time know and have looked at your replies to get a sense of where the Eletric Utility industry stands as a whole. You and others that contribute here have led me to find important information. I have looked to your site because you are supposed to have the knowledge to give us an indication of what is real and what is not. Siouxie's question did not seem to be one that revolved around opinion. When she asked about how many nuclear plants exist in what part of the grid and what their impact on the grid would be, I would have expected that an Electric Utility industry expert should know this and not have to go and research the answer.

-- Anonymous, November 23, 1998



restating part of the original question: ..."If anyone can answer this and supply me with a credible resouce for this information, it would be greatly appreciated."....

several critical replies, including this one:

..."When she asked about how many nuclear plants exist in what part of the grid and what their impact on the grid would be, I would have expected that an Electric Utility industry expert should know this and not have to go and research the answer."...

My reply:

(paraphrasing the old proverb...) Give a man a fish and he eats for a day. Teach a man to fish and he eats for a lifetime.

you make the connection.

Rick has apparently supplied a "credible" resource for this info. Which is what the original poster asked for.

I look forward to the results of Siouxie's digging.

(now if I could just figure out how to get through to ComEd.......)

-Jim

-- Anonymous, November 23, 1998


Okay, Siouxie here. Let me see if I can translate the fairly technical answers that I recieved from PJM. I spoke with a Mr. Lin Pennell and asked him about the (4) grids. He said he did not know what I was talking about with regards to there being (4) separate parts to the grid. All I could refer to is the map I printed from the NRC site that shows the (4) regions. He said that there was approximately (10) different "control areas" in the US and will give me the source for that map later today. He did say that "Yeah, the grid would most probably go down IF all the nuclear plants were shut down." So I did get the answer to my question in a round about way. But he also said that if PJM had done absolutely nothing about Y2K, that they would still be able to run, although not as efficiently. So, I'm still a bit confused about the (4) grids Vs the (10) control areas, but hopefully that map will clear it up a bit.

Siouxie

-- Anonymous, November 23, 1998


Siouxie,

The four NRC regions have no relationship to the nation's electrical transmission grid. They are purely an administrative invention, i.e. a way of assigning responsibility for oversight of nuclear power plants to the four offices.

-- Anonymous, November 23, 1998


I can understand the criticisms concerning not supplying the answers outright, if there are time constraints involved for the readers of this Forum, wherein they cannot do research. For myself, however, I was off on the hunt as soon as I read the URL Rick provided. I didn't place a phone call, but I did e-mail PJM with questions. (Haven't received a response yet.) I learned a whole lot exploring PJM's web site, including the fact that 33.7% of their Source of Energy comes from "Steam, Nuclear". This in itself was enough to indicate that without the nuke plants there would be severe problems. (You don't have to be a brain surgeon to know that if ANY business loses 1/3 of its capacity, it's in big trouble.)

I was also rather shocked to discover that coal-fired plants were the largest contributor to PJM's sources of energy - 42.1%. Unlike hydro electric plants, these generating facilities are completely dependent on uninterrupted and timely deliveries of coal. The coal fired plants and the nuclear plants therefore comprise 75.8% of PJM's power sources!

I would also like to take issue with the statement made by the PJM representative and reported by Siouxie, " he also said that if PJM had done absolutely nothing about Y2K, that they would still be able to run, although not as efficiently." The folllowing is from PJM's About US web site and is under Computer Information Systems:

"In order to assure system reliability, computer systems continually analyze forecasted and actual system conditions. Computer applications are in place for load forecasting, transmission monitoring, system control, generation scheduling, dispatch, accounting and communications. An extensive voice and data communication network enables continuous communication between the PJM Control Center and local transmission operators and adjacent control systems."

Under the Professional Staff category, you also find: "Computer systems professionals maintain, modify and enhance the sophisticated computer and communication tools NECESSARY for pool operations." (Caps mine.)

This certainly appears to indicate that computer processes are a vital part of PJM's operations and I have deep personal doubts about his statement. I also have doubts about just what they HAVE done in the way of Y2K remediation. This is their Year 2000 web site statement:

PJM Year 2000 Project

"PJM Interconnection, L.L.C. ("PJM") has received inquiries regarding PJM's efforts to address the Year 2000 issue. PJM recognizes the importance of this issue to our business, customers, and community. Given our commitment to provide reliable electric service, PJM has implemented a Year 2000 work plan.

The Year 2000 work plan addresses information systems, embedded systems, business processes, and business services conformance to Year 2000 compliance requirements. Part of the work plan has been to establish a Year 2000 project team to evaluate the impact of Year 2000 on the company's products, services, and business systems and procedures. Components of the work plan include, but are not limited to, review of all existing software and equipment for Year 2000 compliance or readiness; remediation of non compliant systems; confirmation of compliance from vendors of mission critical systems; the requirement that all new software and equipment be warranted to be Year 2000 compliant or ready and tested accordingly; and the creation of contingency plans.

PJM has a commitment to provide service with integrity, is implementing its work plan and is committed to the successful completion of our Year 2000 initiative."

Doesn't tell us much, does it? "Implementing its work plan" certainly doesn't mean they're finished and could mean they've just started. I have also asked for more specifics about remediation in the e-mail I sent. If I get a response, I will post the information. PJM is not a "share company" so there is no 10Q to look for, which complicates matters further.

I would also like to add that their web page states, "PJM is the largest centrally-dispatched electric control area in North America, and the fourth largest in the world." It serves 8.7% of the U.S. population, including ALL of Delaware, the District of Columbia, and Maryland. It serves 60% of New Jersey, 75% of Pennsylvania, and 1% of Virginia.

After reading PJM's web site (even though some of the technical reports were beyond me) I understand even better how *incredibly* complex electrical distribution is in this country. And I have to say that my personal "gravity meter" regarding Y2K and the electrical industry deepens with each new addition to my knowledge.

-- Anonymous, November 23, 1998


Hi guys! It's me, Siouxie again. Well this little inquiry has been quite enlightening. Lin Pennell from PJM called me back this afternoon and left a message on my machine. Quote "Hi Siouxie, I am calling to apologize...apparently I gave you a bum answer this morning concerning the grids. There are in fact (4) grids and I was unaware that they existed as such. They are (1) West of the Rockies, (2) East of the Rockies, Texas, and Quebec." He also told me where to find that map of the 10 conrol areas: www.nerc.com/regional/ Well, even though he did say that the "grid" would in fact fail if all the nuclear plants were shut down - I'm going to continue to research this with other sources as well. The fact that he didn't even know that there were 4 grids has made me seriously question his "authority" on this matter. I'm still checking out the other info I have recieved from this posting. Thanks much to all of you. Siouxie

-- Anonymous, November 23, 1998


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