Assumming that the latest numbers are correct, How much money does 61% of IT professionals have in the bank? Anyone have the the numbers to hazard a guess? $10 billion? $50 billion?

How about executives? What was the number 10-15%? how much is that?

These two groups could probably put the fracture in the fractional reserve system by themselves.

-- MVI (vtoc@aol.com), November 20, 1998

Answers

Can't answer your question directly, but here's a thought: Anyone with enough info & sense to bail out of the stock market & banks, isn't likely to wait until December of 1999. They will have already begun to pull out gradually, quietly, & look for safer spots to stash their stuff. Word to the wise: DON'T WAIT.

-- Ben Dair (not@aol.com), November 21, 1998.

The banks will no doubt all understand next year what it means to be "BANKrupt"!

-- Andy (andy_rowland@msn.com), November 21, 1998.

MVI: It doesn't matter who takes the money out, if it is IT folks or not. The following is from y2ksupply.com/bankchart.htm (if you go to the link you will see a chart of the data also) The numbers speak for themselves.

Total $ in circulation is the total cash (green paper dollars) in circulation around the world. Approximately 1/3 of this is in circulation in the United States according to Federal Reserve estimates. The amount is $480 billion.

Deposit obligations is the total dollar amount that U.S. banks owe to depositors. This is the amount people "think" they have safely saved in their checking and savings accounts. The amount is $3.7 trillion.

Actual cash reserves is the amount that U.S. banks actually have on hand as cash. The actual figure is $43.2 billion.

What it all means: First, look at the difference between actual cash reserves and deposit obligations. The ratio is 1.17%. That means for every $100 you think you have in the bank, that bank, on average, actually has only one dollar and seventeen cents. You can see from the chart that actual cash reserves would have to increase by a factor of almost 100 in order to meet the deposit obligations.

Furthermore, the total $ in circulation, which is indirectly controlled by the Fed, isn't even enough to meet the deposit obligations. From this comparison, you can also see that even though the Fed is promising to put an additional $200 billion into circulation between now and 2000, that's hardly a blip on this chart.

The only thing that can save this system from collapse is if the public maintains confidence in the system and does not withdraw funds. Fractional reserve banking is, by definition, unable to meet the deposit obligations of all depositors simultaneously. The reason Y2K has the Fed rightfully frightened is that Y2K hits everybody at the same time. While on any normal day, only a certain minority of people are suffering some kind of financial crisis and need their cash; on January 1, 2000, almost everyone will want some extra cash.

Won't the FDIC save the banks? The FDIC strives to maintain a reserve ratio of 1.25%, meaning that for every $100 of deposits they insure, they keep one dollar and twenty five cents ready to "rescue" failed banks. View the FDIC chart and see for yourself.

-- Robert Michaels (sonofdust@net.com), November 21, 1998.

Let's look at just one month though:

How much would the banks need on hand to serve a cash economy for one month? Assume savings aren't depleted, nor stock markets are "cashed" out by shaky depositors. (Not realistic, but it is a starting point.)

Figure, for example, that after 1 month, the cash paid by a,b,c,d has been transfered to w,x,y,z to repay e,f,g,h who pays l,m,n,o,p.....

How much would they need to print to replace the role electronic banking serves?

-- Robert A. Cook, P.E. (Kennesaw, GA) (cook.r@csaatl.com), November 21, 1998.

"How much would they need to print to replace the role electronic banking serves?"

Robert: I read a while ago that the supply of paper money is around $500 billion, but the total money supply is over 6 $trillion. If this is anywhere near accurate, I don't see how it could be replaced. Taking a month view doesn't alter this conclusion since the ratio doesn't change. BTW, the presses are reportedly running 7x24 and they are retaining older, worn out currency which would normally be retired (destroyed).

-- Robert Michaels (sonofdust@net.com), November 21, 1998.

Get your money out of the bank, first quarter 99. How much money do we have in the banks? Most have been playing the stock market so they need to cash in. Ergo, stock market crash. If you are on this forum, then you have come to resolve and action. You have gradually built up a cash reserve, gold and silver coins, the rest-- your retirement funds (to us baby boomers)is invested in the retreat and its supply of food and tools. Easy. Stop worrying and seeking confirmation from IT professionals, get your s**t together. I think you have 120 days to get it right.

-- Rick Reilly (rreilly@shaw.wave.ca), November 26, 1998.