I am doing a speech on this topic, and was wondering about anyone's opinion on how widespread this problem will be, for how long, and how other countries will fare it. Since the status of this topic can and does change daily, I was wanting to know whether many of you are predicting doomsday or are thinking that this is a hoax. Though neither I doubt are the truth, I am simply interested in which side of the spectrum it will be closer to. If you have any startling statistics, I would also appreciate those. My audience is a group of high school students, so maybe if I tell them that it will cause their phones not to work it will make them pay attention.

TIA for info and opinions, Jeff

-- Anonymous, November 19, 1998

Answers

Hi Jeff, "doomsday" can have a whole lot of different meanings to different people. If the phones don't work, those High School students may think it's doomsday for them! If a business shuts down because of Y2K problems, either temporarily or permanently, its employees will feel like doomsday has struck. If a city, large or small, has their water purification systems go berserk, or their sewage treatment plant shut down, those residents will think doomsday has struck, too, if water is unavailable or is contaminated and causes severe illness. My point is that the world does not have to be plunged into darkness for the impact of Y2K to be a severe one for the individual who happens to be in the wake of a failure.

There is a lot of good information to be found by reading the answers to prior questions on this Forum, including some opinions on whether the grid will stay up or not.

Here are some sobering facts and the situation has not improved very much in the five months since the hearing:

"Hearing to Discuss Chances The Millennium Bug Will Cause the Nations Power Grid to Fail," chaired by Senator Bob Bennett of the Special Committee on the Year 2000 Technology Problem (June 12th, 1998 statement in Washington D.C.). Among the interesting tidbits:

"I have some disturbing news to report this morning. In order to prepare for today's hearing, I directed Committee staff to conduct a formal survey. The survey was of modest proportions including only ten of the largest electric, oil, and gas utility firms in the U.S. I wanted to know the status of their Y2K preparedness. While the survey is not statistically representative of the entire industry, it does include geographically dispersed firms engaged in all aspects of power generation, and gas and electricity transmission and distribution.

I had anticipated that I would be able to provide a positive report on the Y2K status of these public utilities. Instead, based on the results of this survey, I am genuinely concerned about the prospects of power shortages as a consequence of the millennial date change.

Let me share a few of the survey findings: Only 20 percent of the firms surveyed had completed an assessment of their automated systems. One firm did not even know how many lines of computer code it had. Experts have testified before my banking subcommittee that any major firm that has not already completed its assessment, can not hope to become Y2K compliant by January 1, 2000.

[My comment: According to the recent SEC 10Q filings, there are still a lot of utilities and corporations which are still "assessing".]

None of the utilities surveyed were assured after making inquiries that their suppliers, venders, and servicers would be Y2K compliant. Utilities are highly dependent on servicers, suppliers, and other upstream activities to transmit, and distribute gas and electricity. In fact, many power distribution companies are ultimately dependent on foreign oil imports.

None of the firms surveyed had completed contingency plans for Y2K related eventualities. Even though all of these firms are required by their regulators to maintain emergency response plans, none had completed a Y2K contingency plan. My concern is that they probably don't know what contingencies to prepare for."

As to my own opinion, I emphatically state that the year 2000 problem is NOT a hoax. There WILL be problems, both small and great. I do not think the world will end, but if a person is in a cold weather area and their power does go out in January, 2000, they may well feel as though the world has frozen in time. If someone on needed medication is unable to get a supply on time due to transportation disruptions, their world may ACTUALLY end. Awareness and personal preparation are the only ways to provide a cushion against the myriad of potential problems.

Best of luck with your speech. I've been surprised by the understanding exhibited by many in the younger age groups when I've talked with them about Y2K. In many ways they are more experienced in grasping the computer interconnections throughout our society than their elders are. Tell them they may get to play Abraham Lincoln -- reading by candlelight.

-- Anonymous, November 19, 1998

You might want to point out that the "majority" of power plants could stay up (say 80%) and you could still have grid collapse. In fact, of all the doomsday scenarios, that is the most likely. Depending on the grid, the demand and the distribution system, even 90% functional power plant total may not be enough. Of the two US systems publicly examined (Springfield and Niagra) both have SCADA/EMS problems that require replacement. If 90% of the rest of the US plants require the same, we are in deep trouble because the infrastructure to replace these things in that volume doesn't exist.

-- Anonymous, November 22, 1998