When do you think the masses will get aware/scared? When do you think the big runs on canned goods will start, because IMO *THAT* is when the shit will really hit the fan.

We need to keep a close alert on all the signals that could trigger the start of panic. A few days' warning could be absolutely invaluable.

-- Leo (leo_champion@hotmail.com), November 15, 1998

Answers

Get ready NOW! Who cares when the panic will start? Buy as much as you can now. Panic spreads fast (just look at Russia). Our local Walmart and Kmart can't keep certian types of ammo in stock. Home Depot hasn't had generators for over 2 months. Walton foods is taking orders for 8 months out. Need I say more?

Try to buy this year's "hot" toy, the Furby. They sell for $20-$40 retail, but you will have to pay $100+ for one, if your really want to get your kid one. Toys are Us had 200 sell out in 15 minutes last shipment. This is the "madness of crowds".

-- Bill (bill@microsoft.com), November 15, 1998.

No kidding about the Furby. I read about them a couple of months ago in Newsweek, and started looking for them right away. Kept being told that they weren't out yet.

Then, suddenly, I guess I must have been rearranging our grain buckets, the Furbys came and went!

FAO Scwartz won't accept orders, neither will several of the online sources. None of the stores in the area have them...

Oh, well. Guess it's just one less mouth to feed, right? :)

Y'know what? They must have internal clocks to know when their supposed to be hungry, right? All over the world, there will be little Furby funerals.... I think I'm glad I can't find one.

-- Arewyn (nordic@northnet.net), November 15, 1998.

Oh, back to the real subject.

Last January, when we had our Northeast Ice Storm, even though the roads were essentially impassable and there was a 7am - 5pm curfew, shelves emptied faster than you could say stock up!

Many, many people who didn't have cash on hand to buy food and didn't have well stocked pantries went hungry. It was awful. Weeks after the initial storm helicopters were still searching the far rural areas for signs of folks in need; people were advised to put red cloths or marking on the ground to indicate that they needed assistance.

When will the 'masses' begin to panic? Hard to say. When will the first bank fail? I'd bet the rabbit that if not before, the GPS thingy on August 22nd will wake people up big time. That ought to impress the concept of electronic interdependancy on just about every one. Dontcha think?

-- Arewyn (nordic@northnet.net), November 15, 1998.

As far as canned goods go, I agree you probably won't find these harder to get until July or August of 1999. Again, this is canned goods.

Generators and other less common items are a different case. The minor Y2K glitches that start in January of 1999 could make these things quite hard to come by as soon as two or three months from now. Generators ARE currently available in my area, but don't bet on having nine months left to buy one.

-- Kevin (mixesmusic@worldnet.att.net), November 15, 1998.

I've had quite a few reasonable Y2K conversations this weekend with people who would have looked at me funny even 2 months ago. I'd say January 1999 is a good bet for panic-time.

-- Buddy (DC) (buddy@bellatlantic.net), November 15, 1998.

The first thing to go will be cash. Unless, of course, everyone thinks they have until the last quarter. The next thing will be heating devices and batteries. The food chain hasn't died yet and probably won't until the end of the year or the stroke of midnight. I'm buying extra right now, but I think the concentration for the fiscally or emotionally strapped should be on cash.

-- margie mason (mar3mike@aol.com), November 15, 1998.

Leo: Bill has it right IMHO. Don't wait to do anything for preparedness if possible. Do It Now. When will the panic start, you ask. Read Ed's latest article in which he speaks about a potential 'tangible event'. Truth be told, we don't have much info/stats about how many are actually preparing now (that's why I started the thread called "how many are preparing?"... to see if anyone had any numbers. Check that out too. All we have to go by are our own Y2K barometers. The ultimate one is common sense... which isn't so common.

-- Robert Michaels (sonofdust@net.com), November 15, 1998.

Bob, very true. However: I was talking to a guy who is the closest thing I have to a possible investor. Highly intelligent man in his mid-late 40s who is the head and co-founder of a successful ad agency that employs about 40 people.

This guy, who is NOT dumb, was a complete skeptic. If I'm going to have the smallest chance of convincing him (which will make us both a lot of money), I need accurate predictions. If I can say "in a few days, something big will go blooey", and be proven right..

Does anyone have any arguments I can use? This is extremely important to me, my career and quite possibly the survival of dozens or hundreds of people..

-- Leo (leo_champion@hotmail.com), November 15, 1998.

# # # 19981115

Try _this story, Leo

This story from 19980926

( Click here for story http://library.northernlight.com/cgi- bin/pdserv?cbrecid=BM19981001010144012&cb=0#doc ) Title: Expectations unraveled by computer goof Quaker Fabrics stock hurt by year 2000 woes Summary: Quaker Fabric Corp., the success story in Fall River written by CEO Larry Liebenow, has been tripped up by computer system updates designed to solve year 2000 problems The slip-up has slowed production and dramatically hurt fiscal third- and fourth-quarter profits.

Source: The Providence Journal Date: 19980926 Price: $2.95 Document Size: Short (up to 2 pages) Document ID: BM19981001010144012 Subject(s): BUSINESS/FINANCE Citation Information: ALL; Vol. 12-185; BUSINESS Section Author(s): Journal staff and wire report Document Type: Article [END] # # #

-- Robert Mangus (rmangus@mail.netquest.com), November 15, 1998.

Leo: Are you looking for venture capital? I'm not clear on what you are trying to do. The article that R. Magnus gave you a hotlink for, if it the one I think it is, is a great one for showing what can happen to the stock price of any company that doesn't have lawyers telling it to hide the Y2K truth. I did not interpret your post as needing that. What was clear is the pressing need you have to get this person Y2K convinced. All I can say is that some listen and some don't, although I would encourage you to use facts/quotes from "famous" people to do your convincing rather than predictions. Remeber what Yogi Berra said "Predictions are hard to make, especially about the future". Try going to www.readyfory2k.com (Ed's new site) and check out the quote link under the "Information" sidebar. If that doesn't get 'em thinking I don't know what will.

-- Robert Michaels (sonofdust@net.com), November 15, 1998.

Yes, venture capital is exactly what I'm looking for. I could scrape by on fifty thousand US$ (which is about $78,600 Australian, damn the exchange rate), but to be really effective I'd want $100,000+. Ideally I'd have $500,000 with which to get several things happening simultaneously.

I don't suppose any of you guys would have any I could borrow? ;)

You people seem to be mostly achievers- especially Diane (you impressed me. That's quite a hard thing to do. Congratulations *g*). I might put up a copy of the financial proposal here, just to get some opinions (if not something of more concrete financial value) before I go about presenting it.

--Leo

-- Leo (leo_champion@hotmail.com), November 15, 1998.