de Jager--the original prophet of the Year 2000 crisis?greenspun.com : LUSENET : TimeBomb 2000 (Y2000) : One Thread
That's how he's promoted on the back cover of his book "Managing 00: Surviving the Year 2000 Computing Crisis". Coincidentally, I stumbled across the book at my local library (which has precious few books on the subject), and finished reading it today.
I won't make the same mistake GN made. I won't quote de Jager directly (copyright lawyers make me skittish).
The book is aimed at business owners, not individuals. It outlines, rather well, the reasons why Y2K projects are so massive and messy. If you own a business and haven't started a Y2K project, it is a must read. Oh, and shame on you if you haven't.
I will paraphrase a key point made by de Jager: Any company which started their Y2K project in 1997 is likely to fix only about 80% of its applications. If it waits until 1999, only 30%. Even conceding that only 30% of the applications may be critical to the business of the company, that 30% is probably attached by data to another 40% of the other applications that wont make the transition to the year 2000 in time. At best, the company will be crippled; at worst, it will no longer exist.
[End of idea. Peter, if you read this, I am promoting your book. It is excellent. Now, tell your lawyer to go back to his cage, please.]
Mr. de Jager is a very intelligent man, as evidenced by his extremely well written book, which is an absolute must read (at only $19.99 US/$28.50 CAN). He knows that most companies didn't start their projects in '97. Many won't start theirs until '99 (or maybe 1/1/2000). So, to hear him say that all will be well, boys, just keep your promises, is the height of hypocrisy. However, at $5000+ per speaking gig, he has once again proved to me beyond any reasonable doubt how intelligent he is.
Seriously, the book is excellent. Having read it, I am more convinced than ever that this is a problem that very few companies will come close to solving. If anyone doubts that Y2K projects aren't enormously complex, read his book.
Has anyone else read it? Any thoughts?
-- Steve Hartsman (email@example.com), November 12, 1998
By the way, the book was written in 1996, and published early in 1997. That helps put his "quote" in perspective.
Did I mention how great I thought the book was?
-- Steve Hartsman (firstname.lastname@example.org), November 12, 1998.
"Managing 00" was the first Y2K book I bought, around April or May this year. It's a good book for programmers and makes it obvious the problem is more difficult than just adding a couple little numbers. Then I found "Time Bomb 2000" this past June (19 June 1998--I wrote the date on the inside cover!).
De Jager's claim to fame is that he was the first person to warn about Y2K who is still talking about it. His DOOMSDAY 2000 article was published in 1993.
There's also a 12-minute speech carried by C- SPAN in June this year by de Jager. It's in the Real Video format.
-- Kevin (email@example.com), November 12, 1998.
the c-span speech was excellent. thanks, kevin!
-- Jocelyne Slough (firstname.lastname@example.org), November 13, 1998.
I saw deJager on CBN yesterday talking about the food supply chain. I won't tell you what he said but North has said the same thing. I take back what I said about "running the railroad switches with people holding lanterns." Sorry Peter, I was just kidding. :)
I don't like letters from legal firms.
-- Dave (email@example.com), November 13, 1998.
Anyone who liked that video of de Jager on C-SPAN might to check out the link below. It's a video of a speech Senator Robert Bennett gave right before de Jager's. (Again, in the Real Video/RealPlayer format).
Both speeches were given June 2, 1998.
-- Kevin (firstname.lastname@example.org), November 13, 1998.
Are all the y2k prophets let us say "portly", take a look at Ian Hugo, Peter etc not sure about GN, of course Sir Edward isn't. BTW are there any pics of GN on the net.
-- Richard Dale (email@example.com), November 13, 1998.