William Ulrich: "It's time to get the facts"

greenspun.com : LUSENET : Electric Utilities and Y2K : One Thread

Well-known Y2K expert William Ulrich writes in Computerworld that the power companies are dropping the ball on Y2K. We aren't getting facts, which in turn is forcing everyone to develop contingency plans for power losses (which, who knows, may not occur, at least in certain areas). This is a pretty strong column from a leading authority. Good reading, IMHO.

The column is found at:

http://www.computerworld.com/home/print.nsf/all/9811097412

Drew Parkhill/CBN News

-- Anonymous, November 09, 1998

Answers

I agree with Mr. Ulrich that facts are difficult to come by, but I take exception to his broad statement that, " The federal government must take more definitive action in determining the exact status of facilities." Exactly what does Mr. Ulrich expect the federal government to do? Conscript teams of computer consulting experts to do third party verifications of the Y2K work of each utility in the country and then have those teams submit their own opinion of whether the utility will function or not? And are they to force privately owned businesses to submit to this? Will they give legal immunity to whichever group is to make the up or down "call" for utilities? What if the group is wrong?

Then there is the question, "What if it IS determined that the grid will go down?" Is this disaster something the government would want the public to know, considering that time and supplies are limited and not everyone everywhere could access alternate power? If there is the slightest doubt about the outcome, creating a panic is insupportable to the bureaucratic mind. Does anyone doubt that if it was announced that the electric power was absolutely going off for an indeterminate length of time that there *would* be panic?

It also appears that our government is already putting an optimistic outlook on what are quite dismal facts concerning their own compliance efforts. I find it rather naive to assume that this same government whose leadership on Y2K to date has been practically non-existent will suddenly decide to dig out the facts and hand them on a platter to the public, for better or worse.

All this is assuming that there are absolutes in the first place. A utility that believes it is entirely remediated may experience problems if they missed something. Another utility who only did a critical systems slap-dash remediation job, might actually still be able to generate power at the rollover.

Then there is the vendor/supplier connection. Is the government also supposed to evaluate each and every utility supply chain connection for Y2K compliancy? And those supplier's own vendors? And down the line? I don't hesitate on this aspect to state flat out that it's impossible. Once you start investigating telcos, banks, and all the vendors which impact on the utility situation, you end up investigating nearly everything in America. The web of interconnections stretches far and wide. What about our interconnections with Canadian power companies?

I also had to smile over Mr. Ulrich's sentence, "They force firms, government agencies and citizens to expend a massive, collective amount of energy on contingency planning." To date, I see no evidence of any "massive, collective amount of energy" for contingency planning. There's not even all that much energy being spent on remediation. The "bridge to the 21st century" is a mine field and any time advantage the government might have had to "take more definitive action" is long past.

Digging out the facts and spreading awareness has been and will continue to be a grass roots effort, in my opinion. Until there are major problems which reach the national media, possibly this next year when fiscal year software problems occur, then Y2K will continue to be a "non-event" in the minds of the majority of American citizens. I firmly believe when midnight of December 31, 1999 arrives, our nation will be holding its collective breath, still not knowing FOR SURE what will happen.

-- Anonymous, November 10, 1998


I'm hardly a believer in the government as THE answer. But, it is unbelievable that the DOE has so completly abdicated on Y2K to NERC. There should be some kind of Fedgov regulation checklist regarding Y2K. Perhaps a requirement to report on a utilities SCADA/EMS compliancy, a requirement to check embedded controllers that are directly involved in power generation (fuels, cooling, feedback controls, etc.). Furthermore, I would require a quarterly public report in a public forum where questions may be asked BY the public.

-- Anonymous, November 10, 1998

Moderation questions? read the FAQ