The following is from Cowle's electric forum. It is so well stated that I thought it worth sharing. It challenges one of the basic precepts in analyzing Y2k. My apologies to the Fat Ladies! =====================

In the sports days of yesteryear, a player or fan who would talk too much about what might happen in the next game was reminded that "Nothing happens until the fat lady sings"; meaning that you should prepare "the best you can" but you won't know what your facing until the game starts.

As a systems test engineer for weather satellites I learned, years ago, that one doesn't even have a clue as to the nature of one's problems until one is well into the testing phase. Not a clue.

Before each of our tests, the individual modules tested out fine. But the system never tested out fine right away. Never. Until the testing, until the fat lady sang, I swear we were clueless as to what the real problems were.

You can test banking systems, you can test billing systems, but testing for power plants is different. Presently, the problem is approached by engineers saying that various components are being checked out and, from the positive status of these components, they are predicting success.

Add to this that a realistic systems test would include tele vendors and their part of the system as well. Not only is "full up" realistic testing being avoided but unrealistic testing is not yet even occurring!

Our problems go way beyond software and component remediation and testing. For example, there is a trap, into which, we have fallen. We presently divide our progress board into the stages of: Inventory, Assessment, Remediation, and Testing. But the first two don't count for much. And Remediation results can be misleading becauses one won't know if he has remediated everything until the testing starts.

We are using a four stage paradigm that does not tell us if we are making progress. This paradigm could be blown to bits when the testing starts. This four stage paradigm even tricks into believing, like NERC does, that we are right on schedule. After all, many plants have completed their inventory and are well on their way to getting their assessment done. "Heck, looks like were half way there."

Ya, right on NERCers, we doing just fine.

Our four stage paradigm keeps us in delusion. Here is a cut at a more realistic paradigm that keeps us honest:

I. Inventory, assessment, and remediation.

II. Sub-system testing. Fix what you find. Retest.

III. Regression testing. (Once A, B, and C work then get A and B working together and then A and B and C working.) Fix what you find. Retest.

IV. "Full up" testing without tele. Tele testing. Then both together. Fix what you find and then retest. Now, using this new paradigm, lets seet where most of the power plants are. Yup, incomplete on phase I. Hmm. What do the boys at NERC do now?

The problem lies not in too little time The problem lies in our paradigm.

Asked by Steve Tomczak (stomczak@tampabay.rr.com) on November 03, 1998.

-- R. D..Herring (drherr@erols.com), November 04, 1998

Answers

Well I have been sucked in, actually posting at a Yourdonefor board. I never thought I would ever, forgive me for I am sinning.

R.D. see if you can make this peg from ATT fit into your paradigm. Gary North has little trouble fitting square pegs in round holes, maybe you can confer and come-up with a reason why this isn't fitting. And no duh, it is not end-to-end testing, but it has been good enough to qualify 87% of their internal systems as, jest I say it, Y2K CERTIFIED!

http://www.att.com/year2000/resources.html We apply Year 2000 changes to our production systems and processes daily. Weve been applying these changes since mid-1997 and our success rate to date has been 100%. We have not had a single disruption (zero-defect rate) to customer service as a result of our Year 2000 changes.

-- srb (srb2000@usa.net), November 04, 1998.

Sir "srb",

Great progress. Couple of random questions from the studio audience:

Are you done yet? Have you found any "surprises" in testing, as indicated above in the original comment? Are you (as a member of the project), satisfied with progress to date? I can't tell if your results are good or bad, you know your business, not I, so you have to tell me your opinion of your schedule.

Does this need to be repeated at a different site, or can it be applied immediately to all sites? If you (as implied) finish early - again congratulations - you have my respects and admiration.

Assume you finish early, and are not applied immediately to a less critical (non mission critical) task, or will you begin working for somebody else in your industry?

What is your competitor's status? What about your supplier's status? Are you independent of phone, satellites, and the power system, or have you tested your system's interfaces yet? Have you tested your backup plans yet?

Please repond, I'll enjoy one company's positive answers.

-- Robert A. Cook, P.E. (Kennesaw, GA) (cook.r@csaatl.com), November 05, 1998.

"srb"

I apologize, I was not clear in my questions about backups and interfaces - by "phone interfaces" (knowing you are talking about the link to ATT) I mean the local and intermediate servers: for example, the 911 service to 7 counties east of Atlanta was lost for a full weekend this summer because one "local" phone company did not complete their computer upgrades properly.

The larger company, the more interfaces, at many more sites possibly affecting operations, than a smaller one. Y2K may interfere in ways you cannot control locally in testing - for example, you cannot control the sateliites, but are perhaps relying on them for communications in a link to the office where your tested "program" resides.

-- Robert A. Cook, P.E. (Kennesaw, GA) (cook.r@csaatl.com), November 05, 1998.

I will assume you did not even bother to go to the link, so I refuse to answer you on the grounds you are non-compliant in this thread... next poster....

-- srb (srb2000@usa.net), November 05, 1998.

???

No, I thought the flashing little computer screens were real neat. Much better than that state (Iowa ?) with its "Under Construction" lights.

Now, please, finish your answer.

-- Robert A. Cook, P.E. (Kennesaw, GA) (cook.r@csaatl.com), November 05, 1998.

srb - Good to see ATT is 87% compliant, only 13% to go. sidesplitting - yourdonefor forum, why didn't I think of that.

-- Richard Dale (rdale@figroup.co.uk), November 05, 1998.

Finish my answer? to what? your explanation of how you cannot deal with the largest Telephone company in the world saying they are 98% done fixing their internal code? is that it? Please cite the crashes, etc. which says ATT is full of it......And paleazzz, I do not work for them, not even in the computer business. Here is the problem. If it was shown that ATT and every last link in the chain worked, you would then say," but what about the water to ATT's restrooms, what-a-bout it dude? how long can those telemarketers go before they need to take a dump? huh smarty-pants?" or the more common, "but without power those babys are deadmeat anyhow".

Look your points are well taken. But can you honestly just "blow this off" as you have? What does this mean in the larger context of Y2K? Is this ATT stuff just so much nonsense? How come you never hear this type of information? Who are YOU defending? or what? some belief system?

Want a really useful link, no trick monitor GIFs just the truth, might help-ya, in fact I dare ya to go to this one. I dare all of ya. http://www.mcs.net/~aaron/tmc.htm

-- srb (srb2000@usa.net), November 05, 1998.

WOW, I feel so much better now knowing that I am suffering from a delusional "meme", HEY EVERYBODY, you can all relax now, go back to sleep, it's just a mememare. Nothing is wrong with any systems, and even if there were, daymemeing won't fix it.

Thanks for that hard hitting proof! Impressive!

-- Uncle Deedah (oncebitten@twiceshy.com), November 05, 1998.

Re: http://www.mcs.net/~aaron/tmc.htm

This guy is selling a book! He is capitalizing on the same sensationalistic thinking that he castigates as "contagion" throughout his own writing. His counterpoint is merely the other side of the same coin.

BTW, "IDEA" is a perfectly good word. If substituted for "meme" we see that his overuse of the word sounds mundane and repetitive.

-- Elbow Grease (Elbow_Grease@AutoShop.com), November 05, 1998.

Not to be a wet blanket on the good news about AT&T, but based on many years of experience shooting trouble for a major telco, I would like to make the following statement.

Being certified, IMHO, simply means that it has been tested in the lab. You may consider it ready to go to BETA trial. No one really knows what will happen until it goes "live" in a real working environment. This is true of all systems. Will there be bugs? Of course there will. How many? No one knows.

As one AT&T project manager told me, when I complained that the 2 million dollar, fault-tolerant system my ex-employer bought from them kept crashing, "There is no software in the world that is fault tolerant." This system went through the shake & bake process (lab), piloted in another area and put into production in mine. It would crash several times a day. Two and a half years later I had finally got all of the bugs worked out of it.

It is a long drawn out process to make systems work properly. Just think about how many releases, revisions, zaps and patches have been produced over the years on all systems. They weren't just for the sake of enhancing a product. Unless of course, you consider getting a system to work properly is an enhancement.

Best regards,

Anna

-- Anna McKay Ginn (annaginn@aol.com), November 05, 1998.

Can't find "memetics" in the Oxford dictionary (or is it in the 13 volume one), maybe its in Websters. Has memetics any relation to dianetics, are they both pseudo-science.

-- Richard Dale (rdale@figroup.co.uk), November 05, 1998.

I've just thought of "Daletics", definition to follow, I'll write a book about it. It'll be some sort of new age philosophy or maybe like Dianetics, get all these idiots to contribute money to R John Dale, Rickology. Need some help from Diane, hey just noticed the similarity between Diane and Dianetics (except for the tics on the end).

-- Richard Dale (rdale@figroup.co.uk), November 05, 1998.

Just thought I'd throw this out there:

"Nothing happens until the fat lady sings"

is incorrect.

The correct saying is

"The opera isn't over until the fat lady sings."

This is entirely different from the concept given by Steve Tomczak.

It means that the game ain't over until the final bell. And we aren't out of it yet.

-- Buddy Y. (DC) (buddy@bellatlantic.net), November 05, 1998.

Thank you Anna, that was my point.

I'm happy for their progress, but they are not capable of working in isolation. (Granted, they could do without toilets, for a little while, as long as the local sewage system wasn't "backing up" into their building(s) and substation(s) and switchgear, etc.) But that's squibbling - and I still want to hear his comment/answer about square pegs.

See, the ATT "exec" (maybe CEO, don't recall) is in a good position - and that helps - but what he realy claimed is that they have done a large amount of testing without disrupting customer service. As I had experience with a major telephone switch system affecting me personally, I feel justified in pointing out that the announcement doesn't mean they are finsihed, and as the original comment showed - field testing (full up testing) is the longest stage. The hardest stage.

Fortunately, ATT (who is not the whole thing in the telephone food chain) appears to be making progress - great. Wouldn't it be funny if nobody were making progress?

But we/they are done yet. "srb" has not established his premis that telephone service will be availble, nor has he shown the that the original "four-step paradigm" towards resolution is wrong. ATT is simply ending step 3, beginning, maybe in the middle of, step 4.

-- Robert A. Cook, P.E. (Kennesaw, GA) (cook.r@csaatl.com), November 05, 1998.

Richard,..."meme" is a recurring memory pattern...here's a few definitions from scientists and such:

http://maxwell.lucifer.com/virus/alt.memetics/what.is.html

What Is A Meme?

-- Donna Barthuley (moment@pacbell.net), November 05, 1998.

At risk of redundancy--

When all the clocks the world around have rolled over to Jan. 1, 2000, and all the myriads of interacting computer systems have exercised all possible interactions among themselves, and all the users everywhere have done whatever they do, expertly or otherwise, and all the RTC's in all the date-sensitive embedded systems, discovered and undiscovered, have done whatever they do --

then we can say, "Free at last!"

In the immortal words of Yogi Berra-- "In theory there is no difference between theory and practice. In practice there is."

-- Tom Carey (tomcarey@mindspring.com), November 05, 1998.

Robert to srb:

Am I getting smart with you? How would you know?

Hahaha

-- Just laughing (notme@nowhere.net), November 05, 1998.

Srb, Thanks for the reply. I looked over your link to AT&T and found it interesting. But before I get to a commentary on their site, let me expand a bit on the Fat Lady paradigm. I sincerely hope AT&T is indeed making progress. I have no desire for a debacle. Steve's outline of how one brings a system to stable production (or converts an old one in some fashion) matches my own experience in many Fortune 500 companies. The initial code identification/changes/additions is just that - the FIRST step. The time line provided by AT&T shows that they are planning re-tests/changes for mid-99. Its not clear if this is strictly the Y2K lab test or field testing. Thats cutting it a little close.(Wasn't the total lines of code somewhere in the 200 million range.) Although they are applying changes to production code now, and things are reportedly going well, that doesn't necessarily mean the code is going to function 1/1/2000. The Fat Lady (Y2K) has to sing first. When the system operating environment date is rolled to 2000 AND takes a slightly different path through the code AND hits production databases AND hits multiple realtime data interfaces AND interacts with the transmission equipment (embedded switches) AND interacts with the satellite sytems AND interacts with the foreign exchanges (all of which are now seeing 2000 simultaneously), then you will know what will happen. I DON'T know and neither do you. I can tell you from hard experience that you can lab test for years and fail on the first day in production. I sympathize with AT&T. Its impossible to emulate the environment to legitimately simulate a field test.

I can't resist. I doubt that you are a systems programmer but you might ask them how they are handling the SVC-11/VSAM problem. It would be ironic if you ended up with perfect application code, but the mainframe was a 5 ton boat anchor.

I copied the following off the AT&T site. Can you find the error- duh? Doesn't exactly give me a lot of confidence!

Year 2000 testing takes place in ten of the facilitys eleven "test beds" (large computer systems). Altogether, the facility has a processing capability of about 600 MIPS (millions of instructions per second), and three gigabytes (three billion bytes) of DASD. (The RAM memory in a desktop PC is measured in megabytes, or millions of bytes.)

-- R. D..Herring (drherr@erols.com), November 05, 1998.

RD, I am not impressed with your MVS do-dads, who is?, get real this is not a geek forum, EXPLAIN YOURSELF!!!!in english. Nobody answered your prior post on this, why assume I would know? Ask Cory at comp.software, if you can find him anymore. Try this link, maybe you can make heads out of it, http://www.storage.ibm.com/storage/software/sort/srtmspla.htm Questions for all---------------------------------------------- >Why do most assume things HAVE to be compliant? to work? now or anytime? is 90% "good enough"? is Y2K Ready good enough? How do things plod along NOW, being we have little or few dates-field standards in place? Which is it yymmdd, ddmmyy, mmmdddyyy, ddmmyyyy? >Is not the world one big network and interconnected system, how does it all hang together? is it compliant? even in computer platforms? >Is 01/01/00 THE date? If not, what does that say to you? Do the Chinese use a Gregorian calendar? >Do any companies or governmental agencies do forecasting, planning or projecting into 2000 and beyond now? What does that tell you about their puters and systems? Does the code care now in Nov98? ever heard of the EFTPS thingee the IRS mandates for many? seems to work.. >If something is unaffected(date-wise), why inventory? Where are these statistics found, the not-affected stuff? Why do most just ignore these, the majority of systems? What does that tell you about the "agenda" of Y2K? Where does the FAT LADY sing at this OPERA? Who is singing at the end of a normal day now? >At what point is Wall Street going to vote on Y2K? have they already? Most of you better start worrying about the Dow10k bug it is approaching fast. >When is Japan going to implode? 04/01/99? how come zip happened on 04/01/98? Is this not a JoAnne rollover? for somebody, anybody anywhere in the Orient? >Why do Cisco, Oracle, Intel, Microsoft, Nortel, ATT, MCI, Sprint, HP, Xerox, Dell, Compaq, ZDNet, IBM, Lucent, Sun, Gateway, Warner, Disney, Times-Mirror, Shell, ARCO, Wells Fargo, Citibank, and a zillion others all seem to be blind to what you "experts" here feel will be a major dent in the world? Are they folding their tents? a conspiracy to takeover the world? >10/01/98 Feds went fiscal 99, did I miss the stories? the crashes? how on earth are they doing it? mirrors? is their code somehow smarter than average COBOL code? how are the Sen.JoAnneHorn's F's doing it? And even Arkansas should have had glitches along with the 45 other states which have been fiscal 99 since July1, shouldn't they have had some? I mean it is all connected isn't it? dominos right? cascading? >If much of the world is non-techno, how will a crash of computers affect them? How many computers does it take to make a pinata? or a pair of NIKEs? >If everything is so diverse technically, how is a common-mode failure like Y2K gunna develop itself? to epic preportions? >If an embedded chip fails the 12/31/99 to 01/01/00 rollover, what happens on the 01/01/00 to 01/02/00 rollover? >At what point is Cassandra or euy2k.com going to update their "incident" pages? and what does this tell you? >What is Peter de Jager's current opinion on Y2K? Alan Simpson? the Gartner Group? Senator Bennett? are these folks just insane? trying to avoid a panic? the Gartner Group? really....are they part of it? >Is introducing the Euro in January based on realistic Y2K analysis of financial systems and networks? are these people just stupid? suicidal? do the Rothchilds know what their up to? Does the stockmarket care? >Why allow deregulation of the US Power industry if Y2K is coming? When did most Utilities begin Y2K work? 95?96?97?98? When did the deregulation business start? are the decision-makers just a bunch of morons? can't they see what most here see? I mean they must have a better view don't you think? logically? How many of their employees are buying generators and heading for the hills? How many from Sun Microsystems? Not one PUC objected? No worried techies voiced concerns at PUC hearings? >Why has the COBOL industry blasted Ed Yourdon? http://www.objectz.com/TCR/TCR_ayourdon.htm >And why have so many hung-onto that COBOL stuff? irresponsibilty? some conspiracy? maybe cause it is a sound platform? or is because so many are just stupid? >How does one prepare for the end of the world? how many bags of rice does one need? is Waltons the supplier to the world? or is food at my local supermarket ok? seems ok? no lines or shortages at my local market...Costco has generators, not good ones, but I thought this was a crisis? My store has plenty of Kerr jars. Home Depot is open and full of goodies. >Should I warn my neighbor I will kill him and his family if he tries to steal my food come Jan2000? or just do it anonymously to strangers on an internet webforum? do Christians act this way? and whats up with all the FEAR? I got my Faith, what happen to theirs? these Christians? >When is Gold going to do anything? the experts are getting tired? at what point? ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ So what is your answers? Fat-lady singing? flawed paradigms? How do you test stuff not even affected? Tell me why I will not have power come Jan2000? why my paycheck or even my job will cease to exist? Do you have anything? beyond nothing? Do you think MSNBC would report that Cegelec is Y2K certified? you know techie, as in SCADA systems? Why is "no news" really "good news"? Why would anybody report that company A's stuff is not even Y2K affected? who cares? The public don't? are they all just asleep? How much of this "not affected stuff" is worth reporting on? does it qualify for the last 2 minutes of most newscasts? is it warm and fuzzy enough? is this type of story even bothered with? is it provocative or sexy enough? Had you even heard about the ATT stuff till I showed-up? why not? how many of you had? honestly? and this is no lab deal, read the information-fix-lab-integrate, end of story. Where is the beef? fire-doors locking? making grandmas out of woman 50 years younger? medical instruments that fail and actually require a $150ahour doc to work? Visa cards that come-back as duds? Where oh where is all this stuff hiding? the real crisis producers? shouldn't they be growing? what does that tell you, the trend? the bell curve? the paradigm? enough of the questions, would it matter how many questions? The problem is summarized by Lynch in his essay on memes, it applies to the vast majority of the Y2K crisis. No kidding problems exist. No kidding many started late, flawed paradigm-procedures-linear/sinkhole and fat ladys singing. No kidding everything will not be ready, no kidding. No kidding preparing is wise, ANYTIME, as long as one is not a kook and bails from the entire plan completely. How is independence even debatable? Where is the beef? NYSE crashes on a DLST mistake in a members computer, how come all the Y2K bugs(supposedly worse) have done squat to the exchange? How is this possible? magic? when is the fat-lady showing up there? When Russia tanks? Japan? Brazil? when the loud-sucking sound of NAFTA kicks-in? when? Testing? it is called reality. Everyday stuff tanks, babys are born and McDonalds sells another Big Mac, so wupty-do. Nay every company follows the dogma of the 4 steps, they would NEVER deviate, never, get a life. DO YOU HONESTLY THINK NOBODY HAS TESTED ANYTHING YET? THEN SHOW ME ALL THE CRASHING SYSTEMS, simple-simple-simple. Where are they RD? The ATT story is MONUMENTAL, pooh-pooh it all you want, the code don't care. When is an Opera an Opera? The lady is singing and she is singing a tune most of ya cannot face, see memes. Tide has turned, most of you are out-dated on Y2K. Like most stuff, the memetics stuff is ripped, and assumed to be so much nonsense. This IS the pradigm, not the opera-testing deal. The information Age, an age when all will be known. Now they have even proved that certain thoughts(all thoughts) have a biological basis and some act like viruses. And do not assume they are all negative, most are positive. If you do not heed the warning presented by Lynch you are not prepared for 2000 and beyond. You will just be somebodys sponge in an age where ideas rule the day. This information is breakthrough stuff. If understood clearly, it could change your life.

I am not so blind to ignore the problems Y2K presents, no doubt they exist. But are we really using our time wisely wallowing it most of these myths and fear-based half-truths? Who benefits? Yourdon? North? I say it is time for all of us to fully understand what the new paradigm is. The internet on your wrist? ya, about 5 or 6 months away, you can already use gadgets for email that fits on your wrist. TV like internet? ya, cost only issue now, satellite network already up and running. This is one of the areas Bill Gates has been into between testifying. This is the new paradigm, not a fat-lady singing in some opera about a set of protocols which is losely followed.

-- srb (srb2000@usa.net), November 05, 1998.

Good questions...but I don't have all the answers. Then again, the problem hasn't occurred yet. If we keep working, maybe it will have a lesser impact. But last time I looked, complaining about those trying to fix things, or complaining about those supporting those who are trying to fix things, didn't seem to help fix things.

-- Robert A. Cook, P.E. (Kennesaw, GA) (cook.r@csaatl.com), November 05, 1998.

Robert try this version of a similar rant. http://www.InsideTheWeb.com/messageboard/mbs.cgi?acct=mb179366&MyNum=9 08814230&P=No I am not intending to bad-mouth the good folks putting in an honest 8 and working their fannys off, far from it. If you can't make the exact link just go down the board to "Hey Wake-up"..http://www.InsideTheWeb.com/messageboard/mbs.cgi?acct=mb1793 66

-- srb (srb2000@usa.net), November 05, 1998.

SRB said, "When is Japan going to implode? 04/01/99? how come zip happened on 04/01/98? Is this not a JoAnne rollover?"

No, because 99 IS greater than 98. The problem begins when the computer "asks" if 00 is greater than 99. Check the thread Jo(e) Anne Effect. I posted her explanation there.

-- Gayla Dunbar (privacy@please.com), November 06, 1998.

Wish they were only an "honest 8", these 12's and 14's are killing me - feels good talking whilest the PC reloads and eats drawings and CAD files.

-- Robert A. Cook, P.E. (Kennesaw, GA) (cook.r@csaatl.com), November 06, 1998.

SRB said, "Where is the beef? fire-doors locking? making grandmas out of woman 50 years younger? medical instruments that fail and actually require a $150ahour doc to work? Visa cards that come-back as duds? Where oh where is all this stuff hiding?"

I certainly can't answer all of your questions, but I thought you might be interested in the Nov. 5th edition of London's "Daily Telegraph."

ISSUE 1259 Thursday 5 November 1998

Problems have already begun

COMPUTERS have already been affected by the date-change problem.

In Holland, motorists with newly issued bank cards with expiry dates of 00 had them rejected at petrol stations.

A Swedish woman received a letter informing her of the various schools on offer when she reached 10. She was, in fact, born in 1890.

A tin of corned beef from Marks & Spencer was rejected on the ground that the food was 96 years out of date.

A date roll-over check on a power station led to its shut-down within 20 seconds. The fault was traced to a flue stack temperature sensor that was programmed to minimise fluctuations over time, using the date to make calculations.

A computer clock set to 2000 at Chrysler Motors in America shut down the security system and refused to let staff out.

A sewage treatment plant in America found that in 2000, valve-control systems would have released untreated sewage into the rivers.

During a test in an American nuclear power station, the device that controlled the depth of the fuel rod in the core began to oscillate because the air-conditioning system in the control room failed and the temperature rose.

America's Social Security Administration tried to set up a payment schedule that ran beyond the end of the present century. However, the computer system could not process it.

For almost six months last year, Visa had to stop issuing cards with expiry dates in 2000 for fear that they would be rejected.

-- Gayla Dunbar (privacy@please.com), November 06, 1998.

srb, Your fear is showing. That panty clenching, bed-wetting, please mommy don't let IT get me fear. Thats good. Maybe you won't end up as gator bait after all. Ah that felt good ... now back to being civil.

srb: [RD, I am not impressed with your MVS do-dads, who is?, get real this is not a geek forum, EXPLAIN YOURSELF!!!!in english. Nobody answered your prior post on this, why assume I would know? comp.software, if you can find him anymore.]

MVS do-dads? You must be either a senior manager horn hair with a useless MBA from Wharton OR you are a junior file clerk wit an ahteetude. First, I don't recall anyone defining this forum as anything other than a Y2K forum. Therefore, all kinds of people, backgrounds and questions are fair game. If you review my posts, you will find most of them being fairly general and non-technical. However, I do have an extensive hard science and computer science background. As for no one answering my previous SVC-11 post, BZZZZT, wrong Bozo! Ever hear of PRIVATE e-mail? Hmmm? The observer-lurker to post personality ratio is at least 20-1 and probably higher. I have received a number of interesting e-mails from inside the major corps. I respect anonymity. I will tell you this much. The systems programming problems are in many ways much more complex (and system deadly) than the application problems. I have worked on both sides of the street. Have you? As for an explanation, here it is. SVC-11 is a machine instruction that returns a date in the form of CCYY.DDD where CC is century, YY is year and DDD is 001 to 365. Sounds easy, no problem EXCEPT for this little piece of IBM trivia. For the CC part, you DO NOT get back 19 for 1998 and you DO NOT get back 20 for 2000. For some strange IBM reason, they return 00 for the 19xx years and 01 for the 20xx years. November 6, 1998 is 0098.310. January 1, 2000 is 0100.001. There is a lot of system code out there that will not work unless this is taken into account. This includes some serious problems with how files are stored. VSAM stands for virtual storage access method. The above IBM dating methodology is closely tied to internal naming conventions and version dates. The bottom line is it would be very easy to destroy historical files accidentally unless this whole date/naming mess is homogenized( NOT easy). I expect as remediation code gets slammed into production, there will be serious problems in some shops because of this one flaw.

As for the rest of your ranting, let me pick out a few things as representative and have a go at it.

srb:[Why do most assume things HAVE to be compliant? to work? now or anytime? is 90% "good enough"? is Y2K Ready good enough? How do things plod along NOW?....]

The world has had roughly 40 years to evolve data communication interfaces. Virtually every time one computer system has interfaced with another FOR THE FIRST TIME there has been some problems. But these problems have been spread out in etiology and time. This has allowed the geek worker bees to smooth the way and go on to the next problem. So the answer is yes, "things" have to have a minimum level of compliancy to work. They are that way today because of the GRADUAL evolution of the data interfaces. The problem isn't the specifics of date format as much as how the logic of the program is prepared for WHATEVER it is presented. Yes, dates can assume many formats - but NEVER at random.

srb:[Why do Cisco, Oracle, Intel, Microsoft, Nortel, ATT, MCI, Sprint, HP, Xerox, Dell,Compaq, ZDNet, IBM, Lucent, Sun, Gateway, Warner, Disney, Times-Mirror,Shell, ARCO, Wells Fargo, Citibank, and a zillion others all seem to be blind to what you "experts" here feel will be a major dent in the world?]

Blind? Since you are interested in AT&T, care to guess how much they are spending on the Y2K 'hoax'? Current number is in excess of $250M. Check the 10K reports on those other companies. Citibank $675 million, etc, etc. They have already voted with their pocketbooks. They are also recruiting as much software help as they can find for rates up to $250/hour. As for software crashes, what makes you think they aren't happening here and there? Do you think these companies want to advertise failure? Right now, the geek worker bees are keeping up with the slow onset failures as the event horizon slowly comes into view. The pace will accelerate as we turn into 99.

srb:[Is introducing the Euro in January based on realistic Y2K analysis of financial systems and networks? are these people just stupid?}

Greed and political power are the overriding motives. A lot of business and political careers are riding on the success of the euro. Now consider the actions of the British as regards military preparation for civil disorder. Do you think they are stupid? How about the Canadians?

srb:[Why allow deregulation of the US Powerindustry if Y2K is coming? When did most Utilities begin Y2K work? 95?96?97?98? When did the deregulation business start? are the decision-makers just a bunch of morons? can't they see what most here see? I mean they must have a better view don't you think? logically? How many of their employees are buying generators and heading for the hills? How many from Sun Microsystems? Not one PUC objected? ]

Most utilities did not start serious work until 1997. Some still haven't.

Deregulation is about money. Think about that for a moment. There are "utility" companies that are nothing more than a set of office spaces for buying and selling power. Money equals political power, nuff said.

Better view? Morons? Generators and hills? No, maybe, some.... PUC objection? See the Pennsylvania PUC orders, they DID object and set rules for compliance (but too little too late).

srb:[Why has the COBOL industry blasted Ed Yourdon? http://www.objectz.com/TCR/TCR_ayourdon.htm >And why have so many hung-onto that COBOL stuff? irresponsibilty? some conspiracy? maybe cause it is a sound platform? or is because so many are just stupid?]

Because Yourdon made it sound like it was the FAULT of the COBOL language (which it isn't).

Hung on? Now you are showing your lack of knowledge of the subject. There is NOTHING WRONG with COBOL. Its an easy language to learn. Programming is about logic structures. The language is simply the tool used to implement the logic. "Good" languages can not undo bad logic. C'mon srb confess. No one told you that at Wharton!

srb:[How does one prepare for the end of the world? how many bags of rice does one need? is Waltons the supplier to the world? or is food at my local supermarket ok? seems ok? no lines or shortages at my local market...Costco has generators, not good ones, but I thought this was a crisis? My store has plenty of Kerr jars. Home Depot is open and full of goodies. >Should I warn my neighbor I will kill him and his family if he tries to steal my food come Jan2000? or just do it anonymously to strangers on an internet webforum? do Christians act this way? and whats up with all the FEAR? I got my Faith, what happen to theirs? these Christians? >When is Gold going to do anything? the experts are getting tired? at what point? ]

Its not the end of the world! Oh, you and your family may die. But I assure you the human race will perk along without you. Your survival is up to you. My advice is to buy canned tuna, rice, vitamins and chocolate. Forget the generator. Get a couple good water filters. Gold will start up 2Q 99. Faith is an individual thing so why worry about the faith of others. Let God sort it out. I'm not tired. I think this is interesting. A front row seat on perhaps the biggest event in 2000 years! Ah Rome, how I miss it!

srb:[Everyday stuff tanks, babys are born and McDonalds sells another Big Mac, so wupty-do. Nay every company follows the dogma of the 4 steps, they would NEVER deviate, never, get a life. DO YOU HONESTLY THINK NOBODY HAS TESTED ANYTHING YET? THEN SHOW ME ALL THE CRASHING SYSTEMS, simple-simple-simple. Where are they RD? The ATT story is MONUMENTAL, pooh-pooh it all you want, the code don't care. When is an Opera an Opera? The lady is singing and she is singing a tune most of ya cannot face, see memes. Tide has turned, most of you are out-dated on Y2K. ]

-- R. D..Herring (drherr@erols.com), November 07, 1998.

srb continued: [DO YOU HONESTLY THINK NOBODY HAS TESTED ANYTHING YET? THEN SHOW ME ALL THE CRASHING SYSTEMS, simple-simple-simple. Where are they RD? The ATT story is MONUMENTAL, pooh-pooh it all you want, the code don't care. When is an Opera an Opera? The lady is singing and she is singing a tune most of ya cannot face, see memes. Tide has turned, most of you are out-dated on Y2K.]

Of course they are "testing". And a lot of code is getiing fixed. My we are impatient for crashing! 'Show me mommy, show me the big bad tiger who'l eat me all up!!' Sweetikins, its not time for the BIG crashing. Now if you'll just wait like a good little MBA I'll give you a treat out of the MRE's.

AT&T monumental story? Fair web page, no in depth information on systems or embedded problems, just a few general percentages about LOC completion. Oh yes, CERTIFICATION, I forgot. Lets celebrate the SELF CERTIFICATION whatever that means. (Will Wharton send out a certificate to the CEO?) Tell you what. Get them to let me or Cory look through the systems code for one weekend. I'll give an honest report (and so would Cory).

srb:[ The lady is singing and she is singing a tune most of ya cannot face, see memes. Tide has turned, most of you are out-dated on Y2K. Like most stuff, the memetics stuff is ripped, and assumed to be so much nonsense. This IS the pradigm, not the opera-testing deal. The information Age, an age when all will be known. Now they have even proved that certain thoughts(all thoughts) have a biological basis and some act like viruses. And do not assume they are all negative, most are positive. If you do not heed the warning presented by Lynch you are not prepared for 2000 and beyond. You will just be somebodys sponge in an age where ideas rule the day. This information is breakthrough stuff. If understood clearly, it could change your life.]

Whoa! Memetics? viruses? biological thoughts?

Perhaps you should go to your doctor and ask for an RPR test. Are you walking a little funny? On second thought, I'd go right to spinal tap and check for Treponema pallidum.

-- R. D..Herring (drherr@erols.com), November 07, 1998.

Quoting R.D. ****Tide has turned, most of you are out-dated on Y2K. Like most stuff, the memetics stuff is ripped, and assumed to be so much nonsense. ****

My questions, naive and outdated, are: Who has made the final proclamation on all that you are saying is known and settled? I don't have that much certainty, and it may be a flaw of mine...how does one acquire such certainty? I seem to recall reading in the last year that quantum physicists have some remaining questions about how the universe functions. Have they worked all that out in he last couple weeks?

-- Donna Barthuley (moment@pacbell.net), November 07, 1998.

Quoting srb: from RDH, above.

[DO YOU HONESTLY THINK NOBODY HAS TESTED ANYTHING YET? THEN SHOW ME ALL THE CRASHING SYSTEMS, simple-simple-simple. Where are they RD? ]

I sincerely hope no one is testing "on-line" - when trying first , second, sometimes third or fourth tries from the programmers for our 3DCAD system, I'm not testing those efforts on a client project. I'm using a default system for initial checks, and a second and third process for regression testing in other measurement (unit) settings. That's the same thing that the other companies are doing - up until "crunch time" when there is no time to check and the first live test is on our paychecks, insurance deposits, and tax money. Or the local school system payroll account. Or the local water board runs out of "money".

If you look at the release from ATT, the CEO is right to claim "no client has suffered from our testing." - but so what? It only means his people are doing their job right isolating test cases from tlive accounts - and as I said above - fantastic, they're working.

So tell me when they are compliant - and when they have completed full-up integrated testing.

-- Robert A. Cook, P.E. (Kennesaw, GA) (cook.r@csaatl.com), November 07, 1998.

GEEEZZZZZZ....... This is THE Bomb in here....You go Guy's. My 2$ worth is as follows: pass the bigmouth (srb) a 10 mg valium ...eh, make it 3 he needs all the help he can get. Dude,,,with a commitee meeting like that going on in your head I would seek help if I were you. For real. Remember srb, Roche 10's

If in doubt, ask uncle deedah i bet he knows what roche 10's are.

-- oldie (silent@aol.com), November 07, 1998.

to RD Herring, Thanks for all the wonderful insults! I asked>>>DO YOU HONESTLY THINK NOBODY HAS TESTED ANYTHING YET? THEN SHOW ME ALL THE CRASHING SYSTEMS, simple-simple-simple. Your answer>>>Of course they are "testing". And a lot of code is getiing fixed. My we are impatient for crashing! 'Show me mommy, show me the big bad tiger who'l eat me all up!!' Sweetikins, its not time for the BIG crashing. Now if you'll just wait like a good little MBA I'll give you a treat out of the MRE's. ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ Can you give me THE DATE? when the BIG CRASHING is scheduled. Should I care? You said I will probably die, so how much time have I got? sorry if I seem impatient, on a deeper level I must know of my impending demise, want to get as much living in before the BIG CRASHING hits.

You showed your true colors(meme) with the above, "big crash".

Read the "original Fat Lady paradigm post", why bother fixing anything? How do they KNOW it is broke if they are not testing? Oh "they are testing" you say, so what is the point of the original post? And what is the testing(mini Fat ladys) saying? Little crashes? What is ATT saying about their little crashes, forget their size and the millions they are spending of course. And the lack of details, what are they saying? What is reality saying? Do you live in a vacumm? Be patient here, I am "testing" your logic, may CRASH and burn BIG-time, again. I know "it is not THE date yet". What is the Date? 1-1999? 4-1999? 10-1999? 01-2000? 02-29-2000? Were any of the dates I listed,it? I realize I am a bozo and some wacko from Warthon(whatever that is), I am a bedwetter, a panty clenching sap who is nothing but gaitor bait, so I hope I don't sound like the clown I am, but can ya speculate when I am toast? I realize it might take time for me to starve, dehydrate to death (3 days isn't it?)or for my neighbor to kill me(just for kicks my guess, I have no preps so I figure this is low risk, unless he figures the BIG CRASH will be a good time for payback for the time my dog almost ate his cat). Do I really need the Tuna and Chocolate? waste of money based on my future I figer.

Help me Man, I am about to die, I need to know the DATE!!!!!Can you recommend a Doctor so I can get those tests done? Do not have a doc, as I haven't been sick in so long have not needed one. Should I even bother if I walk lame? I'm already a dead-man walking, so what if I have a swagger? does death care? The date man, the date? How bout you 20 lurkers? do any of you have the Date? have mercy on me, I only want to know how much time I got. The date dammit, give me the d-a-t-e... Oh the humanity of it, PLEASE somebody help me......ahhhh.......clunk. And don't play games with me and say it is 01/01/00 cause even I know the date is 10-7-98. Please don't tease me. Please don't say they KNOW cause how could they? How is it possible to test the future? And we have already agreed 4 step linear paradigms are not what they are cracked-up-to-be. I want the dam date people! How could it be 01/01/00 if it ain't that date? man I guess I am freaking bonkers. Why the concern with this date? How does the fat-broad in the tutu know? Is Opera that great? the browser is lame, that I have tested, it sucks. How is it possible to know a date in the future? member the fat lady? Any testing now is just educated guesses, I want the freaking date!!! ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

Anyhow I did get value from your post, thanks for the insights and explanations. I am no computer expert, not even in the field. Warthon? I don't know, I went to CSULB. Never got any fancy diploma. So I guess I am a bozo and a moron. How I think I can hang with you proves that much. Thank goodness it will be over soon, when is that?

-- srb (deadman@somedate.net), November 07, 1998.

Tis the season of the wierd. Perhaps a drastic reduction in population is overdue.

-- R. D..Herring (drherr@erols.com), November 07, 1998.

Oldie

Where to start?... OK having led a somewhat sordid life (past tense) I WAS familiar with that certain relaxant, but I was mostly, in my time, a natural man. (See Gen 1:29) I have apparently, by my vociferious disdain for the farcical war on drugs, attained a reputation which no longer fits me, in regards to the drug world. I will now state clearly, strongly, and for the record, that I do not condone the use of drugs, by any one, most especially minors, and I am not in favor of drug use, (yeah, I know that I'm repeating myself) especially by minors. I will not even take a asprin now, unless it really hurts, and I will slug through the flu or a cold without the benefit of any "aching, sneezing, so you can rest medicine". Is the war on drugs a silly waste? YES YES YES. Treat the hard core users, and try to help them. The current solution of locking them up, and ruining their 'permanent record' (which deprives them of the chance to find a good job) is not the smartest way to solve the situation, and I truly believe that one day we as a nation will come to terms with that. Enough ranting for now.

In the meantime BEER BEER BEER (not a drug!, wink wink, nudge nudge)

-- Uncle Deedah (oncebitten@twiceshy.com), November 07, 1998.

To our beloved srb - you don't understand the problem -

Stop, take a breath, and calm down....your request for defintive answers is a very real part of the problem.

There no definitive answers. None. You, me, and the fencepost don't know what will happen. So stop taking offense at someone who answers you litany of complaints with a litany of comments.

The true liar in any Y2K debate is the one who says he knows exactly what will happen. We can make estimates, we can project (lack of progress), we can make educated guesses based on a lot of accumulated experiences, but that's all.

Now, if you will keep your axe head on for a minute where it wil do some good - instead of flying off the handle and hitting somebody - think about your questions.

We can show you (have shown you) why we feel that there is progress, but not enough progress to finish enough systems good enough that they will work good enough that there won't be significant problems. If you dispute that, no problem, nobody knows how much will be done, when it will get done, what will fail, what will work "good enough" and what will happen when what will break will break.

Satisfied? I hope not. We can't give you the answers you want here. Not honest ones at least - because we are honest enough to admit we don't know.

-- Robert A. Cook, P.E. (Kennesaw, GA) (cook.r@csaatl.com), November 07, 1998.

Robert said it best, none of us know much, and are honest enough to admit we don't know. Way back when in the original post a theory was presented. In essence it was just theory. This thread may have tested it, which I hope has not been lost in my tirades. Dig, for the nuggets. The point is well taken, testing is critical. I seem to have tested your patience more than anything, my fault. In my last post I "planted" a test, nobody has at least mentioned it in the 3 responses since, so what it means I am not "sure". It was a test to measure the depth and willingness of others to read a long post and to really attempt to hear what one is trying to say. Unfortunately I think we all need to do a better job at such, today is 11-8-98(hint). I think it also important to remind ourselves of how impersonal this medium is. Fragments of time, fragments of emotion, fragments of understanding. In person this dialoge would have taken a different route. Much of the emotion would have been absent. The putdowns, catchy one-liners, and slick comebacks would have been tempered or even avoided. So what to make of it? We need to suspend judgement and seek the motives and intentions of posters, only then can we attempt to understand and appreciate why one shares, asks, responds, and hopefully benefit as the poster may have. I have learned much from this exercise. Many good folks here. We are all in this thing together, like it or not. In the end these boards tell us about us, when it is all distilled down. I thank you all for the insights provided to me as a result. Some will hate me, so be it, this is about you, not me. I will leave with a date for ya, the future. It is what we make of it. Y2K is an issue of communication, will the computers do it come whatever date. But in a bigger way it is about us and the new medium. How best to make this medium more human. More than anything this is what this thread has been about, mostly I failed, OK though, I learned the most I figure. Thanks for enduring me or ignoring me, and just maybe somebody found at least some value as I did.

-- srb (lastwordbysrb@yourdon.com), November 08, 1998.

Wellll...I noticed the 10-07-98 date (from your post of 11-07-98), but discounted it at the time as the same typing errors I'm guilty of...now you've got me curious - if I missed something else in the missive, let me know.

The other thoughts didn't follow a definitive enough pattern to remark on, other than the impossibility of giving you the date you would like.

-- Robert A. Cook, P.E. (Kennesaw, GA) (cook.r@csaatl.com), November 08, 1998.