Gartner's New Report Releasedgreenspun.com : LUSENET : TimeBomb 2000 (Y2000) : One Thread
Year 2000 Risk Assessment and Planning for Individuals http://gartner11.gartnerweb.com/public/static/home/00073955.html
WMO info - well worth a browse? This site has many very informative/revealing stats on hardware, O/S, and software. http://www.wmo.ch/web/www/y2k-info.html
Also worth a browse through this directory. http://www.wmo.ch/web/www/ With y2k statements down the bottom.
Year2000 Information links; http://www.cairns.net.au/~sharefin/Markets/Y2k.htm Survival & Energy Information links: http://www.cairns.net.au/~sharefin/Markets/Alternative.htm Food, Health & Gardening Information links: http://www.cairns.net.au/~sharefin/Markets/AlternativeFood.htm
-- Nick Laird (firstname.lastname@example.org), November 03, 1998
Gartner is suppedly THE expert. Here's what they surmised in the top link of the first post of this thread:
>GartnerGroup urges individuals to take a long-term view of the issues. Withdrawing funds from banks or liquidating investments is not warranted. For the most part, GartnerGroup assumes that most enterprises will address mission-critical systems so that 90 percent of the systems that do fail will be corrected within three days. Therefore, for most people, planning for year 2000 issues requires getting through January 2000. A "bomb shelter" mentality is not called for. Preparing for the new millennium should be much like preparing for a storm that will last less than a week.<
Why will it take only 3 days to fix the systems that will have poofed when they can not be repaired for months, years, while everything is humming smoothly?
Why not save billions of bucks, quids, marks by simply waiting until after the big event, then fix everything in less than a week, while all none-codeheads go on a cruise?
I'm going to sell all I've acumulated so far for TEOTWAWKI and by a cruise ticket instead.
-- Creature (email@example.com), November 03, 1998.
Looks like Gartner, De Jager et alles have been told to adopt a different line by government. If we are lulled into a false sense of security they think it will prevent mass panic and bank runs. Helps De Yourdon posters though because we know better, why bother to persuade the masses.
-- Richard Dale (firstname.lastname@example.org), November 03, 1998.
I'm not a "Hitler Expert", but I seem to remember him being quoted as saying something to the effect that if you tell a big enough lie and tell it often enough, most people will believe it.
Those of you who have read some of my other posts already know that I have a weird perspective, others may be surprised, but I think I may be starting to understand one of Jack Kevorkian's paintings; the one with a giant ghostly image of Hitler floating over the US Capitol while reaching out and touching the top of the dome with his finger.
-- Hardliner (email@example.com), November 03, 1998.
Believe it or not Creature, I have thought about doing exactly that - going on a cruise the last week of 1999. Cruise ships are checked out for problems like crazy - the companies can't afford bad publicity about anything. And there won't be any riots on board ship unless the champagne runs out before 4:00 am on 1/1/00. So I just might sit on board and eat lobster tail while I listen to the radio telling about you guys trials and tribulations. Think about that for a minute!
-- Paul Davis (firstname.lastname@example.org), November 03, 1998.
Since I have thrown a number of verbal darts your way in the past, I think it only fair to tell you that it's not because I view you as a target, but only that I'm a "dart thrower" by nature. In truth, I view you as neither ignorant nor stupid, which makes it frustrating when your perspective is different than mine, but also reassures me that a few (hopefully deserved and accurate) darts will not injure you.
I agree with much of your opinion, gladly accept your presentation of documented fact and completely support your right to hold opinions and values that differ from my own.
I consider as carefully as I am able ALL that you write, not just that with which I agree, and find it ALL of value.
As for myself, I find that if humor is subtle enough, it frequently goes right over my head and that brings me to your above post.
If you meant it as a humorous quip, I think it's funny, but if not, I'd like to ask you why you're so extremely optimistic about all this that you'd go off and leave your home to the vagaries of Fate come the dreaded hour of reckoning?
I'm a gambler, but I bet on stakes before odds and if I can't afford to lose the stakes, I don't bet.
-- Hardliner (email@example.com), November 03, 1998.
Very, very strange. The available data just doesn't support a 72 hour bump in the road. I never bought into the conspiracy/govt/x-file mentality before, but...
-- R. D..Herring (firstname.lastname@example.org), November 03, 1998.
Wasn't it the Gartner Group that said awhile back that it would cost the US government $30 billion to fix Y2K? So what's the government planning to spend on it now--something like $6 billion?
I had a hunch a few days ago and now I'm certain--business and government are moving into a major damage control mode as we speak. Is it general concern about panic, or do they know about the Jo Anne Effect in January of 1999?
-- Kevin (email@example.com), November 04, 1998.
True Yourdon aficionados will know the derivation if De Yourdon, from De Yourdon posters sing dis song, deedah, deedah...
-- Richard Dale (firstname.lastname@example.org), November 04, 1998.
"Why will it take only 3 days to fix the systems that will have poofed when they can not be repaired for months, years, while everything is humming smoothly? "
While I do NOT agree with a 72 hour bump (I am planning on longer), something to consider is right now the Y2K problems are all like needles in the proverbial haystack. Come 01/01/00, the hay will be gone and all that will be left is the sharp, shiny needles.
-- Rick Tansun (email@example.com), November 04, 1998.
Cruise ships may be ok while you are on them.
Remember you still have to get off.
At the Miami docks perhaps?
The power goes down on 1-1-2k and you come home on 1-3-2k.
No power, no radar, no computers, no organization, no help. After the ship finally manages to get itself into the dock and tied up, you are stuck there with perhaps no dependable *safe* transportation home.
Gives me a chill. I'll be happier where I can be ready for any eventuality.
-- Floyd Baker (firstname.lastname@example.org), November 04, 1998.
The Gartner Report from 10-28-98 with 18 listed authors, presents a moderately superficial and somewhat incomplete view of the y2k problem and its likely effect.
Excerpts from problem areas follow, grouped by topic [comments in brackets.]
Individuals should prepare for limited duration, localized failures of services and infrastructure rather than an apocalypse. The type and number of failures will vary geographically and cannot really be predicted.
[out of 18 people not even one knows the definition of 'apocalypse' which is 'revelation']
conventional sources of food, water, medicine, cooking supplies, or heat may be disrupted for a while, but likely not for more than a week.
[a SNAFU of this magnitude IS going to last more than a week.]
The year 2000 problem is analogous to a major storm. In this case it will be, at worst, similar to a hurricane, cyclone or bad snowstorm. One can predict its arrival and can thus prepare for it.
[Very poor analogy. Storms cause localized damage, the y2k bug is systemic, more like a virus or a cancer.]
GartnerGroup urges individuals to take a long-term view of the issues. Withdrawing funds from banks or liquidating investments is not warranted.
[They are just saying this to delay bank runs. There will be bank runs.]
Individuals should ensure that they have at least two weeks' salary in cash and up to five days' contingency supplies of key consumable materials (e.g., medication, fuel and food) that they might need.
Withdrawal of more than two weeks' pay in cash before January 2000 is not warranted.
[People will stockup on as much cash and food as they can. They will cash out of the stock market and mutual funds.]
For coping with many of the short-term effects of many potential infrastructure failures, a community-based response makes economic sense. It is considerably simpler to heat a community center with emergency power or heat sources than to arrange the emergency heating of 100 individual properties. Local social groups - e.g., church groups, school boards and town councils - can provide a useful focus for the coordination and delivery of emergency services. Someone will have to do this anyway, since not everyone will be sufficiently aware of the need to prepare, or sufficiently economically empowered to be able to do so.
[This is a very superficial and incomplete glance at the most important consideration in y2k. see the Co-Intelligence Institute at http://www.co-intelligence.org/y2k_websites.html ]
No discussion of infrastructure failure.
No discussion of post-y2k remediation.
No discussion of millenial fever.
The report lacks vision and depth.
-- Jon (email@example.com), November 09, 1998.
Well, That's it then, Relax. Phew! I was getting a little worried until I read Gartner. No Problem. I feel better now.
I do think I will be busy the last few days of December, 1999, though, what with filling my gas tank, and taking a few dollars (3 days worth) out of the ATM, and visiting my dentist and doing all the other things Gartner recommends for late 12/99. No problem.
But... but... Gartner says: "...but the majority of critical public infrastructure should remain intact." Maybe somebody help me out as I have misplaced my dictionary. Would someone help me with the words: "majority", "critical", "public infratructure", and "should"? I know what intact means.
Speaking of help, would someone contribute $2,495 (U.S.) for a copy of Gartner's "Assessing the year 2000 Risk in the Supply Chain"? I would love to read it to see if any of the Y2K stuff I bought ahead of time will be readily available on Jan. 3, ought-ought. Just think, I could have left that money in my Level III (almost compliant) bank at interest, instead of going off and foolishly spending it on things like food. (My local food store - Vons - now owned by Safeway - flatly refused to answer ANY y2k questions from our local newspaper).
I still feel better, though... because Gartner says in conclusion::::: ***-"Be extra careful about scams and unqualified advice. - Be aware that the broadcast news and business press may have a very pessimistic outlook because of information given by those with vested interests - e.g., year 2000 service and software vendors, private consultants and consulting companies."***
Well, they ought to know.
Liddy (417 days to go)
-- Liddy Brite (firstname.lastname@example.org), November 09, 1998.