Cori H's Survey for Expected Y2K Resultsgreenspun.com : LUSENET : TimeBomb 2000 (Y2000) : One Thread
Does anyone know where Cori Hamasaki (sorry -??sp) hides the survey he uses that clearly has 2 scales (one of which is Estabrook)?
I can't seem to find it at c.s.y2k, though the forum over there is ..um ....very different though not as different as I wish. though we have been flogging this particular horse for a few days.
Need to increase our light to heat ratio here soon or the signal:noise folks will gete up in arms.
-- Chuck a Night Driver (email@example.com), October 31, 1998
The c.s.y2k scales have changed a bit over time. I believe this is the Eastabrook scale used since 3Q 97.
0: No problem. Nothing will happen. (LaLa Land).
1: Minor problems, 3-5% of businesses perish. Minor recession. Government slows perceptibly.
2: Some problems, 5-8% of businesses gone, government creaks. Good-sized recession.
3: Significant problems, ca. 10% of businesses perish, government shudders. Large recession.
4: Heavy problems, ca. 15% of businesses down. Government partially ineffective. Large recession plus - think of 1982 + 1979 + 1974.
5: Severe problems, 15-20% of businesses down. Depression, 20% unemployed. Some parts of global economy very shaky.
6: Partial collapse of global economy. Big depression. National gov ineffective, local ones shaky but functioning.
7: Total collapse of global economy, major loss of infrastructure.
8: Reorganization at regional level, some pre-industrial reversion.
9: Limited civil and international warfare, widespread loss of life.
10: Opportunistic military conquest leading to nuclear winter.
Dave Eastabrook. Elmbronze Ltd. Y2K Consultant. 24+ years IBM Mainframes. http://www.elmbronze.demon.co.uk/year2000/ also /IBM/ or /telework/ ------------------
Edwards scale: > The Edwards survey goes something like this: 1-- it ain't going to happen. 3-- serious downturn, 80 hour workweeks until 2001. 5-- TEOTWAWKI, start hoarding now.
One additional factor, the Edwards scale is open ended. You are allowed to vote 6, 7, or 8. Phil Edwards Devisor of Edwards Beermat Scale of Y2K Disaster Projection Editor of UK's Leading Magazine for AS/400 Users Cobol Coded, Data Analysed, Unix Twiddled Brown Hair, Red Beard... sorry, got carried away there -- Phil Edwards firstname.lastname@example.org Editor, NEWS/400.uk +44 (0)161 929 0777
About one year ago, I was about an Eastabrook 4. I'm now at 7.5.
-- R. D..Herring (email@example.com), October 31, 1998.
It's not Cory's survey, but to find it I would suggest that you first go to:
(these are the forum archives). Then do a search on "Estabrook." Eventually you'll get a monstrous number of hits on about the same day, not written by Dave Estabrook (for whom the preparation factor is named). Open up one of these to find the survey submittal.....it might actually be titled something like 'Quarterly Survey' or some dumb thing that would let us know what it is.
If you want results, click on 'display thread' and look for the last or nearly last entry. Somewhere down there is the result sheet. Along the way you can find votes by various contributors, including Cory. The vote sheets and results are categorized as 'geek' or 'non- geek.'
-- rocky (firstname.lastname@example.org), October 31, 1998.
c.s.y2ker email@example.com (ET) does the surveys.
Edwards is severity; Eastabrook is personal preparedness level.
Edwards' survey -
1 - it ain't gonna happen 3 - bump in the road, 80-hour weeks for all in 1999-2001 5 - probable collapse of economy, start hoarding now
Eastabrook survey -
5 - We're a Paul Milne, ready, and (appropriately) armed for anything. (Guns for the US, bows for England, and the Skean-dhu Scotland!)
4 - Small town (1,000-5,000), nearest large town 50 miles or more. 3 months food, heat, water, whatever. Some prepared lands, seeds.
3 - Medium town (5,000-100,000), 1 month food and heat. Water access. Fair knowledge of plants, vegetable growing, garden. First-aider.
2 - Larger town (up to 1 or maybe 2 million depending on surrounds). 2 weeks food plus some basics. Computer geek with other skills.
1 - New York, Washington, London. No pantry, takeaways! A private y2k compliant helicopter brings this down a few points.
-- a (firstname.lastname@example.org), October 31, 1998.