Poll: Will the Grid work?

greenspun.com : LUSENET : Electric Utilities and Y2K : One Thread

Is anyone interested in learning what the people who access this forum think about the Grid. Will it stay up or go down. I would think that saying if it will or not, a short reason why, and what your decision is based on, will suffice for the poll.

-- Anonymous, October 30, 1998

Answers

I'm not sure it's either or? A third possibilty exists called "islanding." Individual power plants that are functioning might cut away from the grid in a cascade if they see it coming. NERC has said this is a possibility. I doubt it will happen but, I don't think the entire GRID system will go down either.

-- Anonymous, October 30, 1998

My personal opinion, derived as a composite from many sources, is that the grid will initially go down, whether from failures of some of the generating facilities, or because some of those facilities will deliberately be off line in order to deal with potential problems in a more controlled start up after the 2000 rollover. I think it's statistically very likely that some areas will experience prolonged outages, but for the majority, however, I believe power will be restored to some extent within a few hours to a couple of days.

This is not to say that restoration will be a case of "the problems are over, it's back to normal", however. I believe the control and monitoring by computers, which allows for far quicker and more accurate adjustments than can be accomplished by humans, will be degraded. I expect power, yes, but I also expect brownouts, possible rationing (a few hours/day), and in general a much lowered efficiency for many weeks. I also expect some fuel transportation difficulties which could cause problems in generation quite awhile after Jan.1. I wouldn't be surprised to see generation in an up/down flux. In other words, a roller coaster effect. Better than a long term outage, but much less than the optimum we are now used to.

I absolutely think it's worth preparing to be able to heat at least one room of your home without electricity if you live in a cold northern area.

-- Anonymous, October 30, 1998


I guess I sound really negative and pessimistic, but, what with Murphy's Law and the law of averages, I don't really see how it can stay up. There is the potential of too many things happening at once for it not to go down. The shut-downs of the nukes, depriving the grid of 20% of our power, will put the grid under an unprecedented strain. Add to that only SOME of the generating plants going down because of Y2K problems. And for good measure, throw in the electromagnetic (is that the correct term?) storms caused by solar storms in 2000. All of this happening somewhat concurrently to a system that, I understand, was never designed to deal with more than one or two simultaneous "accidents". I can't see how it could possibly NOT go down.

-- Anonymous, November 01, 1998

Until a couple days ago, my assessment of the situation was very similar to the one Bonnie described. Then I started thinking about how necessary telecommunications are to scheduling the distribution of power. Data about the status of the telecommunications industry is, as far as I can determine, as hard to find as hen's teeth. Lots of positive PR, but few numbers. Given the complexity of both power and telco systems and their critical dependence on each other, I'm beginning to get a little more antsy. (Hen's teeth? Ants? That Murphy's Law comment set up a definite brain frazzle here!)

-- Anonymous, November 02, 1998

I tend to agree that Murphy's Law will rule the roost with respect to grid reliability when confronted with Y2k.

Myself, I generally try to consider impact on the "grid" in regional terms rather than nationally. I don't think there's a credible scenario for the entire U.S. power grid going down simultaneously, but there's plenty of precedent for such a problem on a regional basis. Personally, I have yet to read or hear anything that would make me believe there won't be some significant regional impacts.

So, now the challenge becomes trying to determine which regions are at most risk. Hopefully, we'll have a clearer picture of the "where" in the next few months.

-- Anonymous, November 04, 1998



I tend to agree with a combination of Rick & Bonnie, after anecdotal conversations from around the country, plus our own investigation of the grid a few months ago. I asked our reporter- who worked on the power grid story- if any of the various experts he interviewed from different segments of the industry thought the whole grid would go down. No one did.

Drew Parkhill/CBN News

-- Anonymous, November 04, 1998


I think the whole grid will go down.

The news, or lack of positive news, from each individual grid leads me to believe they will all have problems. Statistics show that projects rarely complete on time. This industry started too late.

As far as telecommunication lines are concerned, it really depends on the type of lines and whether or not they have power.

Best regards,

Anna

-- Anonymous, November 05, 1998


I think that one thing is clear, the computer systems that keep life as we know it operating normally are imensely complex. No one can fix this entire problem in time.

I think that as 2000 approaches there will be a scramble to get the power grid and other systems ready. How organized that effort will be, who knows. In any event I see a gradual failure of the grid in a few months or maybe weeks, due a variety of problems (fueling, systems etc...). The failure could begin sooner than 2000 with fiscal year dates rolling over before Dec 31.

Gabriel

-- Anonymous, November 12, 1998


Moderation questions? read the FAQ