If you haven't read noted Y2k author & analyst Roleigh Martin's latest 2 part series titled "Contrasting the NERC Nat'l Outlook with your State or Province & Other Concerns, Part 1 & 2 do it! It can be found at the Y2ktoday site. Mr. Martin is a noted expert on "embedded systems" issues within the utility industries. His analysis of the oncoming "crisis" in power generation is very insightful and more then a little scary.

-- Anonymous, October 30, 1998

Answers

I just went to the Y2K Today site and read Part 1 (d.Oct 20) but there didnt seem to be a Part 2.....

-- Anonymous, October 30, 1998

Here is where I take issue with Mr. Martin's statements. In his reporting, he indicated through anecdotal information that he was concerned about the outcome of Y2K because a number of utility and PUC executives were purchasing generators in anticipation of problems associated with the computer glitch.

Martin said the number was significant, at least to him. What fails us in this reporting, however, is the lack of statistical comparison regarding this "number." As we all know, the CIO Magazine survey released in early October indicated that fewer than 10% of the 330 Y2K managers polled, those charged with solving their companies Y2K problems, were doing any serious personal contigency planning in advance of Y2K related failures. However, CIO Magazine played up this figure saying "the fact that even a small percentage are making major contigency plans for Year 2000 in 1998 is significant."

According to the survey, 9% were planning on stockpiling food and 11% planned to store water. Nine percent planned to buy generators and even less, 3% were planning to "bug out" because of the problem. These numbers, in the face of those looking at the problem every day, are NOT significant. Why?

Y2K speaker and Westergaard 2000 columnist Jim Lord says it best. " In my experience," says Lord in his most recent column, "these techonological wizards are...the most cantankerous, anti-social group of people in existence." It is safe to say that the 10% surveyed that say they are doing fundamental planning because of Y2K represent the fringe element of this "anti-social" group.

While my intent is not to dispell the notion of appriopriate Y2K preparations, I think it would serve us best if Mr. Martin were to amplify his remarks concerning the 'number' of utility executives that are buying generators. Of course we are not interested in names, as his story goes, but a ratio would assist us in our understanding of the perceived severity of the problem within the industry.

PLEASE NOTE: As a caveat, I believe strongly that individual, family and community preparation is essential to us successfully riding through this transition. I do not fault programmers for wanting to protect thier families, yet I believe the only resolution to the consequences of the problem are on a community level, and are not assisted by leaving town.

Utimately, in my view, this will be a matter less of how we fix the problem before 1/1/2000 and more how we prepare for it. Stockpiling is the key. Being prepared is insurance against panic. I believe Christian Financial Concept's Larry Burkett says it best: "Y2K is not something to fear, it's something to prepare for."

-- Anonymous, November 01, 1998