The following is from Cory Hamasaki's DC Y2K Weather Report WRP99. I largely agree with Jo Anne on her scenario except that I now think the power outages are going to be more abrupt and widespread. I thought this might be interesting for those who don't follow c.s.y2k regularly. It could serve as a framework to think about your preparations. Apologies to Diane of California. I think you are a sweet soul, but you need a little grounding in the likely outcome.

Thinking About a Possible Future by Jo Anne Slaven

I think that the people in this group use the hurricane/earthquake examples because those "disasters" are ones that the ordinary person can easily imagine and relate to in some way. While this may be a good starting point in explaining the possible outcome of this whole mess, I have to agree that it's not going to be at all like that.

I picture more of a "creeping catastrophe". Putting aside the possibility of violence and looting for the moment, here's one way I can see it playing out.

November and December 1999 is panic time. The general public scrambling desperately for non-perishable foods, candles, and generators. I don't think that the people participating in the "1999 supply riots" will necessarily be thinking long-term. But they *will* want their 2-weeks worth of food and cash "just in case".

January 1 - 10 is blackout time for a lot of people. Obviously, that means no banks, no phones, etc. But somehow, the brave men in the hydro companies manage to bring power back up (sort of) in most places.

January 11 - 31 is *major* annoyance time. The ATMs are off-and-on. Power and phones are off-and-on. Your bank may be out of business. Fuel supplies are sporadic. Your water bill is screwed up, and you have to spend 4 hours in line to talk to someone about adjusting it. All you can find at the grocery store is mustard and plastic forks. The company that you work for had declared a brief lay-off until things settle down.

February 1 to May 31 is depression time. Nobody is buying all of those useless products on the market today (like beanie babies and leather sofas), so a lot of manufacturers and retailers have shut down. Not to mention hotels, restaurants and service companies. And the banks - they won't be doing too well either. Lots and lots of people out of work.

Feb February 1 to May 31 is also Time Dilation time, when the clocks in some older PCs start jumping forward unexpectedly. Some of these older computers are used in process control. Could get interesting. See http://www.nethawk.com/~jcrouch/

June 1 to September 30 is "cautiously hopeful" time. Lots of fresh fruits and vegetables are available, and everyone is looking forward to the abundance of foods that will be in the stores come the fall. There won't be enough to go around, but people are ignoring that for the moment.

October 1 to Lord-knows-when is Serious Shortage time (and a continuation of depression time). Shoes, clothing, fresh fruits and vegetables - anything that is normally imported from developing countries is in *very* short supply. And expensive. Not that the unemployed masses could afford to buy anything anyway. Perhaps more important, raw manufacturing materials from other countries are non-existant. As are the foreign markets for finished goods.

And so it goes on. Bad times building on bad times. And remember that I left looting and violence out of the equation. Also omitted were martial law, nuclear "accidents" and disease.

I could be wrong though. It could be worse. (with acknowledgements to infomagic)

-- R. D..Herring (drherr@erols.com), October 28, 1998

Answers

This is a very plausible scenario..........providing that we really can leave looting, violence, disease, and martial law out of the equation. Considering the charge given to the Canadian military and RCMP, and the recent US discussions on the role of the National Guard, this may be doubtful.

The value of this scenario is that it recognizes that 2000-01-01 won't be a cliff, with an abrupt "one day everything is fine, the next we're all refugees" change. It factors in the economic effects of the failure of 3rd world countries to remediate.

I do see the panic beginning earlier -- perhaps by June.

-- rocky (rknolls@hotmail.com), October 29, 1998.

You might add in fuel rationing. If the Alaska pipeline shuts down (and freezes solid), the North Sea platforms go haywire, and the Middle East runs out of desalinated water and/or bursts into flame, crude oil is going to be in short supply. What foreign oil exists for sale will probably be paid for in gold or wheat.

-- Max Dixon (Ogden, Utah USA) (Max.Dixon@gte.net), October 29, 1998.