Ok, so we all know what a 10 is, and we know that a 0 means no perceptible problem. But since the vast majority of participants here lean toward a 10, perhaps some discussion of a 5 would be revealing. What IS a halfway-between? I'm finding it difficult to define.

For instance, if power stays up, (whew) and so much depends on it, does that mean that any other problems at worst rate a 5? If the economy skids, but banks remain viable, is that a 5?

How much does telecom factor into the equation if it is the only serious stumble?

I know someone will trot out the "interconnectedness" argument, but it might still be possible for the major players to falter but not fail, even if there are numerous local or regional problems.

-- Elbow Grease (Elbow_Grease@AutoShop.com), October 28, 1998

Answers

Very good question. It's a good idea to define our terms. Makes it easier to discuss everything else.

Here's my 2" worth: Early power outages longer than 4 to 5 days for 1/2 of the country followed by recurring shortages. This ranks as a 5 in my book. I'll use the electric power industry as a barometer. Widespread, prolonged power outages would lead to social unrest, and directly cause economic hardship. It would also be an indicator that other business and governments are in similar condition. Frequent power shortages would cripple businesses, as they will be the first customers forced to cut back on usage.

As I've said before, the problem with a 5 is that there's a very slippery slope to the 8 to 10 range.

I'll be watching for all of your opinions.

-- Mike (gartner@execpc.com), October 28, 1998.

hokay, E.G. I'll take a crack at this one:

If a 10 is TEOTWAWKI then a 5 (for us here in the States) is a sickening lurch - *some* power stays up, due to islanding by the few utility companies that actually manage to make it. This still results in major casualties in at least one of the major urban areas in the Northern Tier (with associated martial law in that area), but most of the rest of the country staggers along, with electrical generating facillities slowly be being brought back on line throughout '00. Communications are initially limited due to power outages and due to Uncle Sugar reasserting his priorities over the functional remainder. Additional problems arise in the industrial sector due to the fact that even when the folks here in the US are ready to go back on line, their suppliers around the world are still struggling with attempts to get their own iron triangles once again functional. This includes the usual coups and revolutions in unstable third world countries, etc, etc, and major problems with starvation in Japan due to the length of their supply chain for fossil fuels, and the generally lousy shape of their economy otherwise. Gas and oil prices will probably also increase radically, as there is no evidence that the 50+ percent of the oil that we import from Arab countries will be readily available...

just my 2 cents worth Arlin Adams

-- Arlin H. Adams (ahadams@ix.netcom.com), October 28, 1998.

A five?

Power, water, natural gas, and sewage running (though perhaps irregularly) after 5 January (threee working days) in 90% of the country. Basics for "life as we know it" resored and functional to 98% of the country (throw in Canada too) after 1 week.

No riots or fires that cause permanant loss of a major city. Each city that burns loses a half number: 5-1/2, 6, 6-1/2, 7, etc.

Martial law ended. Until the latter - its a 10.

-- Robert A. Cook, P.E. (Kennesaw, GA) (cook.r@csaatl.com), October 28, 1998.

To me, a 5 is:

- My immediate situation is livable, but there is intermittent power failures and/or water (I have my stockpile and alternate sources of power/heat etc.)

- There is intermittent telecomunications problems.

- The stock market bottomed. Half the banks have failed/failing.

- 20 to 30% medium and small companies closed/closing due to bankrupcies. A few large corporations go bankrupt.

- Unemployement rate rises to 20% +/-

- Cities see marhall law and riots, chaos. Many home fires.

- Many sick and old people die due to glut and triage in hospitals' inability to service the population as they do today.

- Half the schools close due to lack of power or water for more than a week or 2.

- Most western countries struggle along as we do.

- Less developed countries collapse, to them it's TEOTHWAWKI or a 10.

- The majority of communities work hard and pull together and we slowly recover over the year our infrastructure, with residual effects in the economy lasting a decade or more.

If it's a 5, or less, there's hope for my kid's future. Above that...I don't want to dwell on it.

-- Chris (catsy@pond.com), October 29, 1998.

I always thought an 8 was a brownout, and 9 was a blackout, and a 10 was a meltdown. I think one of the guys on Russ Kelly's "panel of the experts" said that. The average score there is an 8. Yourdon says an 8. Yardeni says an 8. Jager says a 6. There are 21 experts on that panel. So if an 8 is a brownout, then a 5 must be a couple of weeks of craziness and then a moderate to severe business slowdown.

-- Donna Mittelstedt (dmittels@csuhayward.edu), October 29, 1998.

I thought I was perhaps overly pessimistic until I read what other people consider a 5. Well, we are each entitled to a personal scale and as I said before all TEOTWAWKI is local.

Power off for 3 days or less. Very few water quality problems. 75% of the telecom stays up even if intermittently. 10% or fewer banks fail. No Fortune 250 bankruptcies. Few riots, less marshal law situations. Federal government able to function (probably flat tax paid in cash). Energy imports are maintained at 50% or greater of current levels. No nuclear/biological accidents/warfare/terrorism.

By the way, I view the scale as a being like the earthquake Richter scale. Scenarios are exponential. So a 5 is not half of a ten but 5 orders of magnitude less! (Interestingly, its possible to have a negative Richter scale quake but its very tiny.)

The range of effects of Y2K, especially on a local scale, is potentially huge. New York or Philadelphia may experience TEOTWAWKI while Diane in California is barely disturbed during meditation. (different power grids and urban vs rural, chanting vs ranting, etc) So a log scale seems reasonable to me. Richter eq. ML = log10A(mm) + (Distance correction factor)

Richter TNT for Seismic Example Magnitude Energy Yield (approximate)

-1.5 6 ounces Breaking a rock on a lab table 1.0 30 pounds Large Blast at a Construction Site 1.5 320 pounds 2.0 1 ton Large Quarry or Mine Blast 2.5 4.6 tons 3.0 29 tons 3.5 73 tons 4.0 1,000 tons Small Nuclear Weapon 4.5 5,100 tons Average Tornado (total energy) 5.0 32,000 tons 5.5 80,000 tons Little Skull Mtn., NV Quake, 1992 6.0 1 million tons Double Spring Flat, NV Quake, 1994 6.5 5 million tons Northridge, CA Quake, 1994 7.0 32 million tons Hyogo-Ken Nanbu, Japan Quake, 1995; Largest Thermonuclear Weapon 7.5 160 million tons Landers, CA Quake, 1992 8.0 1 billion tons San Francisco, CA Quake, 1906 8.5 5 billion tons Anchorage, AK Quake, 1964 9.0 32 billion tons Chilean Quake, 1960 10.0 1 trillion tons (San-Andreas type fault circling Earth) 12.0 160 trillion tons (Fault Earth in half through center, OR Earth's daily receipt of solar energy)

-- R. D..Herring (drherr@erols.com), October 29, 1998.

I LIKE that scale, never thought of logging it......

Neat idea. So calibrate me .... above scenario: local city becomes = 6, remote city (same state) = 4, but on the Diane scale = 1?

-- Robert A. Cook, P.E. (Kennesaw, GA) (cook.r@csaatl.com), October 29, 1998.

Reading down the thread, started getting alarmed at how serious a middle-of-the-road might be. Must admit to being much more optimistic than most. Then reached R.D's musings and the lightbulb went on. Excellent concept!

-- Elbow Grease (Elbow_Grease@AutoShop.com), October 29, 1998.

What is a 5? The least likely outcome. Can't see it. 1? Nah. 2? MMMhh 3-4? Severe recession, power stays on for the most part. 6? Too much like 5. 7? Serious power problems, civil unrest, widespread shortages of basic needs, long term depression. 8-9? Mad Max. 10? Run out of beer, mushroom clouds in the distance.

-- Uncle Deedah (oncebitten@twiceshy.com), October 29, 1998.

Mike,
Do you mean power outages _no_ longer than 4 to 5 days?

And Chris,
Your scenario seems more like an 8 to an 8.5 to me if the orders of magnitude concept applies.

To everyone else,
Did you read Michael Hyatt's book, and if so, how do you think his brownout/ blackout/ meltdown descriptions apply to the 1 to 10 scale?

-- Donna Mittelstedt (dmittels@csuhayward.edu), October 30, 1998.

Not too refined, and open to suggestions, but I'll take a stab at it.

0 = no effect

1 = annoying glitches like the date is wrong on your grocery receipt

2 = financial glitches like incorrect billing, maybe the traffic signals only work on one setting

3 = shipping and transportion delays, small business failures

4 = localized brown-outs and intermittent power problems, telephones work but lines are often busy

5 = localized blackouts and phones out, more business failures and larger companies

6 = widespread blackouts 1-3 days, some civil unrest, emergency response delays, shortages

7 = blackouts more than 3 days, civil unrest, martial law in some cities

8 = extended blackouts, fires, major shortages of fuel, food

9 = blackouts + other infrastructure breakdowns + civil unrest can't be controlled

10 = Mad Max scenario

-- Buddy Y. (buddy@bellatlantic.net), October 30, 1998.

So what is a 5 ? Here's my gold coin thoughts on a scale of 1-5. 1 is April 99 the start of the fiscal year for some countries and NewYork State as we all know. Just that will take us to a 2 or a 3. Then from the 2-3 to say a 5 there will be brownouts to finally blackouts because of the lack of fossil fuels to assist power plants operate. By this time more people will really feel the effects of y2k and Nuclear Plants will not be on line,because of the NRC. So now we are at 7-8 from a 5. By this time stores will be completely out of food items and people are going nuts.So the Martial law that we are under now as signed by Clinton Nov 14,1997 will be in full force headed by FEMA... Except the FEMA group will be having problems also because those employees will not work for nothing. So what happens next is several Nuclear Subs will be at various places in the world, some even under the Artic circle, complete with arsenal of weapons. But they have a problem also the satellite they need for navigation is out of commission. This brings us to almost a 10 after we account for the thousands of people in elevators,subways,airplanes and stranded in their condo's at the 27th floor. And by this time the banks will be completely shut down and so the rest of the other systems,Utilities, Communications,Transportation. And finally we are at 10 or should it be a 12 because there is 12 months in the year 2000. That's my thoughts concerning What's a 5?

-- Furie (furieart@gte.net), October 31, 1998.

It's a number, 'bout halfway between 1 and 10.

-- ed (edrider007@aol.com), October 31, 1998.

Ed, you are too funny! Made me think of the movie "Airplane." (It's a number between 1 and 10, but that's not important right now.) :-)

-- Gayla Dunbar (privacy@please.com), November 01, 1998.

My favorite kid's movie was Wargames.

I liked the conclusion they come to during the end game.

Chess anyone?

Diane

-- Diane J. Squire (sacredspaces@yahoo.com), November 01, 1998.

Chess is too easy - you always what the rules are, you only have to play against one person, and the playing field doesn't change from moment to moment.

Now, try teaching several differernt classes of feuding adults something they don't want to learn ....

-- Robert A. Cook, P.E. (Kennesaw, GA) (cook.r@csaatl.com), November 01, 1998.