Y2K Starts January 1999 ???!!!greenspun.com : LUSENET : TimeBomb 2000 (Y2000) : One Thread
Hi There. Im just joining up. I recently moved back to Silicon Valley after a ten-year absence. Ive been living in a small rural community in Southern California of 2,000 people about 6,000 feet up in a pine forest. They are all concerned about day-to-day survival and very few have heard about Y2K. Theyre concerned about paying tomorrows rent.
Being relatively computer savvy Ive been investigating the Y2K issue over the past few days. It seems to me everyones missing the immediate boat. Most of the global web-site Y2K focus is on preparing for different risk scenarios circa January, 1st 2000. Hey guys! It all starts THIS January and crescendos on 1-1-2000. Why? The large to medium retail sector ends their fiscal year at the end of January, 1999. They want to look good with Christmas sales showing their profitability. Then they roll-over to 1999-2000. The problems really start this January time frame!!! Then again, its important to note that most medium-sized and larger corporations dont follow a calendar year accounting system. Their fiscal year 1999-2000 usually kicks off at the end of a quarter. Like March 31st, June 30th and September 30th. Those will be some of the additional high times alongside thos mentioned on Eds site.
A case in point.
I thought we had a little more preparation time. I went by my local bank branch, Bank Of America (now the largest in the U.S. with the recently announced merger), to see about transferring my account from Southern California. I found out Southern & Northern California banking and transactions are on completely different computer systems. I ended up chatting with the branch Vice President whos computer savvy. I asked him if BofA had any literature on their Y2K compliance status. He told me Not yet, but theyll be releasing something soon. He mentioned that he sees all the internal documents and that they are about 99% compliant. Then he proceeded to say But that doesnt mean we wont have problems. They will surface. And by the way, it doesnt all start January 1st, 2000 but this coming January !!
The universe sure has a way of confirming things rapidly! He also mentioned that a lot of his customers have told him that on December 30th, 1999 they plan to withdraw their money from the bank. He ended up saying that the Bank only has so much actual cash money in capital assets. If theres a run on the Bank, they will have to close it -- the largest bank in the U.S. -- because they cant possibly meet the cash requirements of everyone withdrawing their money. Hum-m-m.
I was a girl scout when younger. Their motto is Be Prepared. Im revising that to: Be Prepared Before December 31st, 1998.
Love, Light & Luminescence, Diane J. Squire, Sacred Spaces firstname.lastname@example.org
-- Diane J. Squire (email@example.com), October 25, 1998
Diane, We know. Take a deep breath of that clean California mile high air. Your analysis is basically correct. Furthermore, its possible there might be some power & telecomm disruptions as we roll into 1999. One thing you can count on is growing public awareness. The banks are probably toast come late '99. I suggest you study the issue carefully and then start some basic preparations. Address these issues in this order: water storage/purification, food storage, heating requirements, medical needs, financial issues and personal protection. Realize that as you learn more that your emotions will tend to rollercoaster up and down. Here are a few links which you might find useful.
Y2K info: http://www.y2knews.com/ http://www.y2ktoday.com/modules/home/default.asp http://www.garynorth.com/y2k/latest_.cfm
Preparedness/survival info: http://www.millennium-ark.net/News_Files/Hollys.html#Anchor-35882 http://ourworld.compuserve.com/homepages/roleigh_martin/catalog.htm http://www.survival-center.com/ http://www.artrans.com/rmsg/toc.htm
-- R. D..Herring (firstname.lastname@example.org), October 25, 1998.
There is the now well known "Jo Anne Effect" [Jo Anne, if you're reading, I spelled your name right] that applies to accounting software that uses the fiscal year 1999-2000. Yes, this will effect banks, and anyone else that doesn't have their problems fixed before then and that are suceptible.
The problems won't be nearly as serious as those that occur in 2000.....only a fraction of the mainframe and desktop programs, no embedded systems, etc. They'll probably have 2 main effects ----- raising the level of awareness to the point where buying sets in (near panic?), and they will delay remediation because the problems are occurring on systems that must get fixed.
-- DeAlton (email@example.com), October 25, 1998.
Thanks for the comments. I have a 78-year old mother who refuses to move from the hills near Silicon Valley. Despite increasing her awareness of this problem on the web, she insists on staying put. She went through the Great Depression as a kid. During WWII she was pilot with the WASPs (Womens Air Force Service pilots). She loves to camp and has tons of camping supplies. Id like to remain in safe haven, with clean air and lots of fresh water, problem is not much food grows at 6,000 feet. Whats a daughter to do?
Later, after deep-breathing some more, Ill share some stories of when my whole town of 2,000 people had to evacuate for three days because the hills around Idyllwild, CA were on fire. Also, I went through the Northridge Quake in 1994 about 7 miles from the epicenter. Great Stories and I now realize, preparation for the big one. As a native Californian we all thought the devastating quakes would be physical. Whoever thought it would come from our own creations, computers?
Diane J. Squire
-- Diane J. Squire (firstname.lastname@example.org), October 25, 1998.
Diane, another thought, I manage a small manufacturing facility. Our Account Recievables can be dated 6 months out. In other words, around July 1999 some accounts will be 100 years past due.
-- WAYNE WITCHER (WWITCHER@MVTEL.NET), October 25, 1998.
Welcome here, thank you for donating your time,
The symptoms from Y2K have already appeared, as early as Jan and Feb 1998 when two-year credit cards and library cards failed, since they were "read" by existing credit card programs as being expired.
May I recommend you review the "older" threads, there is a lot af very good info from many well-informed folks. All of it will hellp you a great deal.
Think first, plan ahead, then act. But first, take a deep breathe and don't panic. Later, you can panic. But its too early to panic now. 8<).
-- Robert A. Cook, P.E. (email@example.com), October 25, 1998.
Thanks again, guys. Robert, I will make my way down through the older threads. Ive been incredibly impressed with the caliber of statements read so far and the touches of humor make the whole Y2K issue somewhat lighter.
-- Diane J. Squire (firstname.lastname@example.org), October 25, 1998.
Anyone know what business sectors will be hit early by a one year window in January of 1999? I've heard it'll be felt in bookkeeping and accounting software, and in the hospitality and travel agency business.
Two quick stories. I live in the Louisville area. The first Y2K incident that I personally heard about was from a friend of mine working at a hotel this past May(the Derby). A guest wanted to reserve a room at the hotel for May of 2000. When my friend tried to enter May of 2000 (5/00) in the hotel computer, it told him that "arrival date cannot precede current date."
Second story. A friend of mine works for a radio station that has all of its commercials stored on a hard drive. The computer stores, schedules, plays, and creates affidavits for the commercials. Advertizers specify how long they want their commercial to run (a week, a month, six months, a year, etc). The date the commercial is supposed to quit running is called the "kill date."
My friend at the station produced a commerical, put in in the system, and put a kill date of October 2000 on it (10/00). When the commercial was supposed to run for the first time at 8:35 in the morning, not only did it not play--it crashed the radio station's system, and it took 20 minutes to get the station back on the air!
-- Kevin (email@example.com), October 28, 1998.
Interesting, I suggest you put that post in to stand on its own as a most recent question. Since there are so many threads to sort through, some people who might like to see this may not.
-- Diane J. Squire (firstname.lastname@example.org), October 28, 1998.