Is the school population growing? How to tell.

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Planning Demographics by Area (as opposed to by school)

The following information is provided to assist CWG's in preparing demopgraphics to illustrate real growth in student populations across an area in the planning study.

Currently, we are being asked to look only at a school by school scenario, which does not provide accurate reflections of overall trends in demographic shifts that some of the inner area schools are experiencing. This involves a bit of number crunching, but the results are worth it when you can illustrate that growth is a component of your analysis and subsequent recommendations.

• First, you must tackle the problem of collecting the data by year and by grade from each of the schools historical enrollments in the planning study for your area. Since the JK and SK are given as actual person numbers, they need to be combined and then divided by 2 in order to provide an approximate ADE. Keep this number separate from your actual totals for each year.

• Next, you prepare a chart with the following configurations:

• Rows numbered consecutively from 88 to 97 (98 would be nice, but is not shown in planning study). Last row titled Difference 97-88, (subtraction).

• Columns identified as Student Total, Total JK/SK, Total 1-8, New ADE Total, SK-4 Total, 5-8 Total, Spec. Ed. Total.

• Student Total represents the Total from JK to 8, including Spec. Ed.
Total JK/SK is as it states.
Total 1-8 is a subtraction of Total JK/SK from Total.
New ADE Total is a subtraction of 1-8 Total from Total.
SK-4 is total of enrolment in these grades.
5-8 is total of enrolment in these grades.
Spec. Ed. is total of enrolment in all listed programs ie spec. ed, ESL, ESD, SSU and others.

• Third, now that you have rearranged the numbers in this fashion, you can identify certain trends and growth patterns (hopefully) in your area which will help your presentation to the Board.

• Additional information can be obtained by subtracting the 97 from the 88 New ADE Total to derive a percentage growth as a barometer of change.

The following chart shows how the numbers worked out for Elementary Planning Area 4:
 StudentTotal TotalJK/SK 1-8 Total New ADE Total 1-4 Total 5-8 Total Spec. Ed 1988 3390 604 2786 3088 1352 1433.4 87 1989 3371 690 3081 3433 1597 1483.6 130 1990 3724 628 3096 3410 1472 1623.6 139 1991 3692 660 3032 3362 1499.5 1531.8 115 1992 4212 710 3502 3857 1506.8 1567 177 1993 3989 771 3218 3603.5 1583.5 1634 239 1994 4046 733 3313 3679.5 1661.5 1651.4 244 1995 4212 750 3462 3837 1702 1759.2 269 1996 3877 726 3151 3514 1721 1429.8 254 1997 3887 685 3202 3544.5 1718 1483.2 224 1998 3675 Difference 497 81 416 587 366 49.8 137 Growth% 14.93% 19% 27.07% 3.47% 157%

If further information is needed, please feel free to contact Donna Silver

-- Anonymous, October 24, 1998