safety of people coming out to the countrygreenspun.com : LUSENET : TimeBomb 2000 (Y2000) : One Thread
I keep seeing much written about after TSHTF, when desperate people will flee the cities, and head for the country in search of food. It would seem to me that country folk, after a few experiences of beggars, or stealers, will start shooting first and asking questions later. Not that I am advocating such a thing, but people will get hardened by the life and death struggle, and feel that anyone intruding upon their country refuge will be fair game. What do you think?
-- matt farmer (firstname.lastname@example.org), October 21, 1998
If we go to the "Road Warrior" outcome, I think your fears a justified. Read "Tom's Take" to get a good viewpoint on this. It can be found at Gary North's site.
-- Bill (email@example.com), October 21, 1998.
For a better look at total disaster read "Lucifers Hammer" by Jerry Pournelle and Larry Niven. One of the characters reminds me a lot of the way Paul Milne talks - read the book and you'll know which one.
-- Paul Davis (firstname.lastname@example.org), October 21, 1998.
Its probably useless, but I can't help thinking about the defenseless Amish 45 miles outside of Philadelphia. Perhaps they should be warned. Any thoughts from the lurkers out in Lancaster land?
-- R. D..Herring (email@example.com), October 21, 1998.
I deal with the Amish in my area (Western NY State) on an almost daily basis and I'm amazed at how up to date they are on relevant current events. I don't think the Amish need to be warned...when I mentioned it to one Amish store owner, he knew all about Y2K! In fact, they've been discussing the problem and possible consequences to their community for over a year now! He wouldn't say if they had any solutions for the problem but did say that they were concerned that the "hoardes" would be coming to the country when food in the cities ran out.
-- Roy @ Four Winds (firstname.lastname@example.org), October 22, 1998.
Why do so many people think that people will start killing each other en masse when TSHTF? After the most violent war in history there was hardly any crime in Europe, even though many people were hungy. 1.000.000 Germans even starved to death.
-- herzlich willkommen (email@example.com), October 22, 1998.
You are probably correct in your assumption that folks will try to flock to the perceived "safety" of teh country if they have the wherewithal to leave a city. After all, there are lots of folks out there waiting to share the bounty of their farms with someone who is passing through, or maybe camping in their south forty, or the woodlot. Isn't it the neighborly thing to do and aren't the farmers all neighborly Pa Kettle, Lassie-family types?
Besides, they owe me for buying their produce for so many years so they could get rich. The bill is about to be presented! It's my DUE! It's my RIGHT as an AMERICAN (or CANADIAN if you will) to participate in the sharing of the plenty.
And, if any of this looks too stupid to be accepted, that is precisely the part that will be widely accepted. Having grown up in a small farming/bedroom community in Central NY, I can tell you how the locals will respond to the folks from Syracuse or Albany or NY (if they get there). "Keep going, don't stop! Here's a load of buck shot to remind you not to turn around! BANG!!"
Probably the same way the folks in rural Geauga County (redundancies abound!) will react if the Perry Nuke Plant declares an event requiring evac to shelters, only there, they will say "Get back to the da** shelter!!"
If anyone has the country in their plans, they better own the land by 3/99 and be ON IT by 5/99. And that will not be enough time unless you bring interesting skills or work REALLY HARD to set up neighbor relations.
-- Chuck a Night Driver (firstname.lastname@example.org), October 23, 1998.
Having lived in a rural area for some years, I can say with confidence that rural people are not going to be pleased to see a bunch of unskilled, hungry refugees pouring into their area from the cities. Anyone thinking of moving to the country should do it as soon as possible, within the next couple of months so they can make some rural friends who may be y2k allies. They also need to have a useful skill they can market in the rural area. I have a lot more to say about this subject on my website (www.y2ksurvive.com).
-- Cody Varian (email@example.com), October 27, 1998.
>Why do so many people think that people will start killing each other >en masse when TSHTF? After the most violent war in history there was >hardly any crime in Europe, even though many people were >hungry. 1.000.000 Germans even starved to death. >Answered by herzlich willkommen (firstname.lastname@example.org) on October >22, 1998.
Probably because alot of Americans (not all) believe that they have a RIGHT to whatever they want and that society as a whole owes them everything. Back in WWII, most individuals believed in individual responsibility for their own actions, but most Americans today don't believe that way.
They believe 1. The reason they are not successful is because that society conspired to keep them down. 2. The reason they cannot find a job is because they were given to those OTHER people ( not because they are not qualified or do not have a good education). 3. The reason they got fired was because that their manager hated them ( not because they didn't show up for work or showed up drunk or late)
It all sums up to the fact that they feel NOTHING is their fault, all the world is conspiring against them.
It was described to me this way:
You have a friend who has been talking to you about Y2K but has failed to make any preparations. When you try to stress that he needs to prepare, he laughs and says "Well, if the S* hits the fan, I guess I will come out to your place." Then Y2K hits and he shows up on your doorstep expecting you to take him in and share of your good planning even though it may put your own family at risk. What do you do?
-- Steve Levin (email@example.com), October 28, 1998.
Steve L. said: >They believe 1. The reason they are not successful is because that society conspired to keep them down. 2. The reason they cannot find a job is because they were given to those OTHER people ( not because they are not qualified or do not have a good education). 3. The reason they got fired was because that their manager hated them ( not because they didn't show up for work or showed up drunk or late)
It all sums up to the fact that they feel NOTHING is their fault, all the world is conspiring against them.<
Steve, I agree. For years, I've been wondering why? Why and how was the "guilty conscience" cut from the minds of the younger generation? Very complex question and answers. One contributing factor was that women were "liberated." Guv policies encouraged this - Hahaha hehe heee, twice as many tax slaves to load our pork barrels. Corporations encouraged this - twice as many deoderant users.
-- trying to forget but better remember (firstname.lastname@example.org), October 28, 1998.
I think the inertia that is preventing people from preparing and thinking about a new paradigm is the same inertia that will keep them where they are, in familiar surroundings, once Y2k hits. If there is no fuel, people won't want to travel to the middle of nowhere to be stranded in a field when they can huddle in their own houses...also what about martial law? After 2000, when people start to panic, the first thing they will do is get in their cars and drive to all the grocery stores looking for supplies to stock up on. This will deplete their fuel resources, and they won't be thinking that they might not be able to buy more gasoline. IF the gas stations can't pump the fuel or run out (and people don't realize that there will be no more fuel for a while) most cars will run out of gas within the first few days. People wouldn't decide to go to the country for at least a few months and by then it would be too late IF fuel wasn't restored. Also, most crops wouldn't be ready for 7-8 months. Maybe you could poach a cow, but how many city people would even know how to clean a chicken, let alone a cow. I can just see it now, city folk trying to milk farmer jone's steer.
-- Kay P. (Y2Kay@usa.net), October 28, 1998.
They'll have to slog their way through all those clouds of methane, is it worth it, all they'll get is beans (if not buckshot) then the whole cycle begins again.
-- Richard Dale (email@example.com), October 28, 1998.
>Why and how was the "guilty conscience" cut from the minds of the younger generation? (by seenit)
I not sure but I think that our moral values have fallen into the toilet from the last generation to this one (maybe even before that). It seems that its always me-Me-ME and no one thinks about what affects the ME generation will have on everything else.
As to mobs heading out from the city to the country... look at a few stories: TEOTWAWKI by James Wesley Rawles, Lucifer's Hammer by Jerry Pournell, Alas Babylon by Pat Frank, even though they are fiction they do bring out several good points and will definitely get you thinking. In my experience with riots and mobs(ex policeman), it seems that the lowest iq in the mob is the level that all the members of that mob fall to, basically the mob isn't thinking rationally--they just WANT! (what they want changes - eg: stereos, alcohol, food, money). So it is not beyond reality to see a mob *believe* that there is food in the next place(Town,City,Megaplex) so they walk there to get it. The real problem is that The Next Place will have its own mob too ( very likely)(though mostly larger towns and cities)and they will probably go towards that OTHER PLACE that has what they WANT(they believe). Eventually they will slow down, straggle off or be killed (by outsiders or members of the mob itself). So it is not ouside of possiblity for people to travel for something they WANT or believe you HAVE.
-- Steve L. (firstname.lastname@example.org), October 28, 1998.
Interupted mailout - Sorry! resending
-- Steve L. (email@example.com), October 28, 1998.
Here's another viewpoint on the situation. I believe the author of this post (from another Y2K Forum) is a moral and ethical man and I believe he has done a very great deal to spread Y2K awareness. Look at what he has to say--he is no fool.
Date: July 30, 1998 04:32 PM Author: JL Foreman (firstname.lastname@example.org) Subject: You have Options to survive, here they are
A friend sent me a copy of a letter her husband had sent to a friend of his at work.
> Homer wrote: > > > > Terry and Lisa , Thanks for the reality check. I think I hear the train coming. Please send directions to where you live.
> Terry/Lisa Bowden wrote: > Homer,
> It is good to hear that you are ready to take action. Please be assured, I have no prejudice. I will accept slaves regardless of color.
It would be better for you to be your own master rather than my slave, but what can I say?
To those who fail to plan for the future, sometimes life can deal cruelty to them. Starting wages will be a meager cup of field corn for a 14 hour work day. I will be making preparations for you and directions will be forthcoming.
> Glad to see you take y2k seriously!!! > Sincerely, Terry > P.S. One good thing to look forward to in your new employment under me is that I don't issue warning letters! The bad news is... > I do believe in caneing.
This hit me like a wake up call. We can laugh right now about the letter, or get offended or whatever your personal take is, but its reality is like a bucket of cold water.
You haven't seen, in America, people this desperate to live to see the next day . If y2k is what it looks like its going to be, you will see them. You may be one fifteen months from now.
The right response to the refugees is often argued back and forth on this forum. That's theoretical. Put yourself there. You have limited supplies, yet the people you told this about look you up as if you owe them something.
Don't give me this gushy "You can all come" crap. The fact is, if they come your children will starve. At the same time, I'm tired of the "shoot em" bravado.
I think Lisa and Terry have harshly but realistically painted the more likely scenario.
No one you meet begging after 2/1/99 had to be begging. They could have done the research and taken the steps to get prepared. No one owes them anything.
But in decency you want to give them something. And the fact is you need them around you too if they are decent people. We're not going to make it without community. Something like Terry's arrangement will work out.
(And notice how Terry has cut to the heart of the issue, he is trying to get Homer to see that if he doesn't prepare, knowing what he now knows, he is really nothing more than a slave right now, he just doesn't know it in his false pride.)
I get emails every day from people who are financially desperate and ask me for help. I am not for a minute denying their desperation. I get torn up every time I read those things and the advice I give them is not as picturesque as Terry's advice, but it is in the same ball park. It's hard words to people facing hard choices.
Do you really think that Y2K is going to hit? If so, do the following:
Stop halting between options. Decide what you think is coming and plan for it. Don't be 75% convinced but only give 10% action to achieve that goal. If you are 80% convinced but you don't act on that conviction you are the biggest fool of all. You deserve . . . no you don't even deserve Terry's level of mercy.
I'm not saying get radical, I'm saying get off the fence one way or the other.
Do this. Imagine the world in June, 2000. Whatever you think is reasonable to expect in that month you should begin now to prepare for. Period. Ruthlessly. Don't look back.
If you think it will be chaos where you live do the following:
Track down every source of money you can think of. I believe all of us have more assets than we think at first. Even the Israelites borrowed from the Egytpians as they left town. It's time to think of cousins, uncles grandparents and parents. It's time to think of 2nd or third jobs and selling cookies. Of dropping insurance payments and buying food with them. I don't recommend any of these, I'm simply pointing to how money is spent and who might be a source. Evaluate it in light of what you believe is coming.
Buy food You can buy 5,000 lbs of corn for about $500 and a mortar and pestle for $15 there's your first year's food. Yeah I'd rather eat ready reserve or buy AlpinAir from Will. But corn beats sucking wind and watching my skinny little babies crying pitifully covered by flies who are eating better than they are.
Now you need a safe place? The net is full of people who are moving out to the country. Advertise for them, read the forums and write some of those who post whom you think are decent family people (most on this forum are decent, even the lurkers). Sell your services for 7 years to someone with land in the country.
No one will have you? Make as many contacts as you can and when next summer comes you may find more who are interested. Make this deal with them. If it looks like Y2k will be the big one, you will become their indentured servant for 7 years. Or go out to the countryside 70 to 100 miles from where you live right now. Go to church out there and pick some decent folks that have some land and you think are straight up. Get to know them and bargain with them to be their servants for 7 years. They will not believe you, but as events wear on they may be open to it about the time you need to flee. Then simply flee and arrive on their door step. If you have food they will probably let you set up somewhere on the property and your first task will be shelter. Once that is built you will need to do everything your new provider wants you to do. Your wife can work in her kitchen and your kids can clean up around the house and yard.
Housing There are trailers for sale as low as $500 to $1000. "I'd never live in one of those" you say? What if that isn't your option. What if you can't even live in one of those and all you have is a wooden-lean to? Again go back to the picture of y2k in June and ask if you would give your right arm to be able to live in one of those.
If you are on the internet reading this, it means you have access to $1000 to $2,000 and you can survive on the budget plan.
Friend, don't feel sorry for yourself, throughout history most people would have given their right arm to have assets of $1,000 to $2,000.
Quit despising the day of small things and feeling sorry for yourself.
To: THOSE OF YOU WHO CAN AND ARE PREPARING
When my Father first went as a missionary to China and then Korea he went over with all of the modern American egalitarian nonsense thinking that it is immoral to have servants.
What he discovered is that comparatively he was so wealthy (by their standards) and the countries so poor that his refusal to have servants was the same as selfishly seeing to it that dozens of people be prevented from having honest useful work and the corresponding pay. They couldn't do much but the could take care of many of the missionary's day to day needs, and in turn we found that three levels of servants could be hired down stream from the average missionary.
I recommend the same rethinking of your situation. You may think of yourself as barely surviving but there are many out there who have nothing. If you could provide a place for them to build a shelter and fields to start working on or some goats to tend you will be saving a family's life and providing much needed protection for your own community. Also doing so in the context of honest hard work and giving people a chance to work their way back on their feet.
-- Hardliner (email@example.com), October 28, 1998.