On Sunday, Oct. 18, the Syracuse Herald American newspaper had Y2K as their front page lead article, with another full page of reporting inside. The paragraphs which dealt with details at Niagara Mohawk (NIMO) are:

"Niagara Mohawk Power Corp. has already identified digital control units at some of its generating stations that must be replaced if the facilities are to continue running in 2000. Some of the new devices will not arrive until mid-1999, because just about every utility in the country has placed a similar order, NIMO spokesman Gerald Rockower said."

"In addition to tackling its mainframe programs, NIMO is still assessing thousands of devices used in its generating and transmission systems for embedded chips that may be Y2K sensitive. As part of that effort, employees physically inspected each of 948 substations. Some processors used on generating plants have been identified for replacement."

This information lets us know that the Y2K fix for NIMO is in progress. They are "tackling" their mainframe programs but don't say where they are in that process. They are still "assessing thousands of devices". Some of the replacement parts for the control units which they have thus far determined need to be changed will not arrive until "mid 1999". The unpleasant train of thought this leads to, is when will they be able to get any other parts if they discover in their assessing that something else needs fixing?

Also, does anyone know what the average time frame is for installing and testing new control units once they do arrive?

-- Anonymous, October 20, 1998

Answers

The article Bonnie is referring to appears to be available online at

http://www.syracuse.com/news/stsunday/19981018_ahnyk.html

-- Anonymous, October 20, 1998

This is a well done article - you may want to check it out online at:

http://www.syracuse.com/news/stsunday/19981018_ahnyk.html

The article certainly speaks volumes about the magnitude of the issue. For instance: Cornell University - 2 years, 2 million lines of code, another million to go.

W/R/T Bonnie's question on how long it takes to install and test new control units, it depends on several factors. The article did not say whether the problems they were finding were at NIMO's nuclear units (Nine Mile Point Units 1 and 2) or fossil units. And it did not say what type of "digital control units". If it's a total DCS package, that's a doozy. If it's merely system level controllers for some type of process, that's less of a headache, but as noted in the article, still a significant supply chain issue. Of more importance is that to replace a critical control system, the plant in question has to be in an outage. So, do they schedule a Y2k outage, or do they try to squeeze it into a regular maintenance outage?

The bottom line is, without a lot more information, I couldn't make a guess on how long it would take.

-- Anonymous, October 20, 1998

Thank you! We have been asking NiMo for several months how it was doing and we were getting the run around. This is the most comprehensive information so far. We are deeply in your dept.

-- Anonymous, October 21, 1998

Bonnie,

I put your question to a friend of mine who is an outage planning engineer at a major nuclear plant. He said it all depends. If the equipment that is being replaced is not critical to plant safety and can be done while the plant is operating, then time does not become a critical factor. If it is outage related, then they have to wait until the next scheduled outage or fix it during a forced outage, if time permits. He said some equipment can be replaced in hours, others take days or weeks, depending on the complexity of the equipment. He said he was not famiular with the embedded chip problem but that he would look into and let me know.

Bill Watt

-- Anonymous, October 21, 1998

Bill:

Thanks for your post, but you stated something that left me concerned. How can an outage planning engineer at a major nuclear plant not be familiar with the embedded chip problem? At this stage of the game I would hope that even the janitors at any nuclear plant would be familiar with the problem.

-- Anonymous, October 22, 1998

Thank you, Rick and Bill, for the input. I was afraid there were not enough details for a comprehensive answer, but perhaps we'll know more in time.

In line with the time frames for equipment installations, I read an article by Roleigh Martin at www.y2ktoday.com/modules/home/default.asp titled, "Contrast the NERC National Outlook With Your Own Area Utilities". I found some of the final paragraphs to be very interesting and should give a "heads up" to those working in utilities, as well as those served by them. Those paragraphs follow:

All promises that utilities are on schedule are mere speculation with no substantiation prior to finishing this milestone. Never in history have all utilities worldwide had to upgrade their hardware in so short a time window. There is no precedent to this event.

Please note--much of the equipment shelf life that is being ordered by utilities (and manufacturers who often share the same electronic control equipment) has a typical 15 year shelf life if it was not for Y2k. That means that the servicing companies/engineers are geared up to upgrade (on average) about 1/15th of the industry in any one year. I confirmed the reasonableness of this number in conversation with several electric utility Y2K project managers after a legislative hearing.

Now these companies have to upgrade the industry in about 15 months. At best, they will only be able to gear up to handle a small fraction of the total. Those who are midway or late in getting in the "race pack" will probably be disappointed when they place their equipment upgrade orders. The same goes for communities who place their contingency equipment orders in late too.

The above challenge can be posed in a humorous story that Ronald Reagan used to tell. Two hikers were in the woods and came across a grizzly bear. One of the two hikers bends down and takes running shoes out of his backpack and starts to put them on. The other hiker says, "You cannot outrun a bear, do you know that?" The first hiker responded, "I do not need to. I only need to outrun you!"

Moral: The race to upgrade facilities to be Y2K compliant (or ready) --means you have to beat others in placing orders securing installation help--should such be needed.

-- Anonymous, October 22, 1998