Excellent report from Gartner Groupgreenspun.com : LUSENET : TimeBomb 2000 (Y2000) : One Thread
Has anyone read this Garner Group report to Congress?
This is testimony to the US Congress on October 7 by an industry group that's been tracking Y2K. For the record, this is how they rate the situation currently in the USA.
Note they are ranking Distribution of the problem first and the Severity second.
They rate as Isolated and Minor these possible failure effects:
Power Loss/Brown-outs Telephone operation interrupted Natural gas interruptions Certain Foods shortage Water shortage or interruptions Bank interruptions or panics Unrest
They rate as Isolated and Moderate these effects:
Airt transportation interrupted Oil shortage
They rate as Isolated and Severe this effect:
Interruptions to Imports/Exports
Finally, they rate as Moderate and Moderate this effect:
Government Services Interrupted
The truly remarkable aspect of this report is that even though they rate the things we've been most worried about as "isolated and minor," they balance this domestic optimism with deep pessimism about the global situation. This group, which has studied the issue in depth for a very long time, makes the case that the consequences of global disruptions will be unpredictable and economically serious to us. Even though we may be sitting pretty, relatively, in the USA, the rest of the world will be in deep trouble, and this will certainly affect us.
This is a very serious report. The Gartner Group makes the strong case for "full time monitoring and analysis of global risks the Year 200 problem is likely to pose to the United States."
If anyone else has read this report, I'd appreciate comments and analysis.
-- Barclay (firstname.lastname@example.org), October 17, 1998
I just skimmed it, however it seems to reflect what I have been reading in the industry trade magazines. Their analysis pretty much dovetails with what I have been saying the impact of Y2K will be in the US, and also that it will be much worse elsewhere. It is worth noting that India - the 'rent a programmer' captiol of the world, is rated very poorly as having barely started on Y2K remediation. BTW - I don't mean any insult to Indian programmers here, just their govt. Some of the best programmers I have know have been from India. Matter of fact, if Hiten Sonpal should happen to read this - HI.
-- Paul Davis (email@example.com), October 17, 1998.
Some of my best friends are black. Jesse Jackson, if you see this, HI.
-- I-See-You (firstname.lastname@example.org), October 18, 1998.
I just posted something you may find interesting in thread Asia's future/Our Tech Problem. Regards, PNG
-- PNG (email@example.com), October 18, 1998.
I don't yet share their optimism yet, nor their conclusions about what is likely to fail in what magnitude.
I can be convinced, but not based on what I've seen so far. On the other hand, each report of "progress", though none ar ecomplete, means the whole problem is being reduced, one line of code at a time. Every program fixed is one more that won't fail in the midst of the other troubles occuring.
Just wish I had a bigger pocketknife and more time when faced with whittling a molehill out of a mountain......
-- Robert A. Cook, P.E. (firstname.lastname@example.org), October 18, 1998.
The main question I have w/ the Gartner report is who their sources were and whether they can be believed.
If the report can be believed, then it looks to me like survival-level preparations are not entirely necessary. Of course, preparations below that level still are.
-- Buddy Y. (DC) (email@example.com), October 19, 1998.
Like with last month's NERC report, you have to "read between the lines". One thing that I think is worth noting is that this report CONFIRMS that there is nowhere to be found any significant "Y2K success story" at this very late date, just a lot of happy-face "working on it", "getting there", etc.
-- Jack (firstname.lastname@example.org), October 19, 1998.