It has been stated that in order to test a utility plant for y2k compliancy you need to take the plant off line. Is this true? Also, is it true that all companies on the power grid would have to test at the same because of shared information? If the answer to any of these is no then can we rationalize that something is going to happen to the power grid? Would power companies rick stating they can guarrentee the power will be on 1/1/2000?

-- Anonymous, October 13, 1998

Answers

Y2K compliance is not, for the most part, the goal of the utilities industry. Rather, it is Y2K readiness. The difference is that compliance somehow implies that it all works right. Ready implies only that it works (at all).

The only true full test will happen when the century turns over. No amount of pre-testing will or can be be fully predictive.

Shared information in the utilities, particularly the power grid - is not much of an issue for keeping the electricity going on a minute by minute basis. As time scales increase, however, sharing is of increasing import.

The typical test that tries to emulate the interface between systems, tests systems two at a time and attempts to use a form of composition to imply results for the overall system. This is highly successful in certain classes of systems, but it doesn't cover things like tightly coupled systems with cascade effects as well as it might. Power grids have these problems but are not as tightly coupled as some other systems (such as phone systems and computer networks).

No legitimate power company will guarantee that you will have power at 8AM tomorrow morning so that is a moot point. We can rationalize anything we want, but a better strategy might be to work toward mitigating the potential for harm by activating your local government to work on mitigation and emergency preparedness strategies in case worst-case faults do occur.

-- Anonymous, October 13, 1998

Thanks for your response but the issue of utility readiness and my local government is complexing. My local government has been assured by President Clinton's y2k czar that they should expect electricity and dial tone on 1/1/2000. My city (pop over 200,000) is making its contingency plan based on that information instead of the worst-case scenario as I think they should. I have talked to a couple of utlity workers and they expect the power to go off because management has not a clue. Any ideas I can present to my local govnerment to make them see the light and plan accordingly?

-- Anonymous, October 13, 1998

Consider the following two statements:

FRED: "No legitimate power company will guarantee that you will have power at 8AM tomorrow morning so that is a moot point."

DAVID: "My local government has been assured by President Clinton's y2k czar that they should expect electricity and dial tone on 1/1/2000."

If no legitimate power company will guarantee power at 8 AM tomorrow (and that _is_ an accurate statement!) how can Koskinen assure your local government to expect electricity? Your local government does not understand the problem. BTW, I'd like to see that 'assurance' in writing. I'll bet it's hedged with weasel words.

-- Anonymous, October 19, 1998