What is GOING ON WITH THE ECONOMY NOW???greenspun.com : LUSENET : TimeBomb 2000 (Y2000) : One Thread
UH OH Just starting to get ready, didnt realize till I found about about y2k from a friend. Just purchased cook stove, propane, and today my husband who works for ALCOA came in and said they are cutting back work hours...Anyone out here feel like I do.? What is UP with the econlomy RIGHT NOW? Will y2k bee all we need to worry about...Get ready global destruction of our $$$ is ALREADY HERE FOLKS
-- Werebroke (firstname.lastname@example.org), October 07, 1998
Your husband works for a key industry which is a good barometer of the direction of the economy. What we have it seems to me is triple witching. One is what appears to be a spreading worldwide depression, two is Y2K and three is a political crisis.
On the third item I personally doubt that Bill Clinton will leave the White House without the Marines dragging him out by the scruff. He may very well instigate a crisis in order to remain in office.
None of the above by itself is good news. The three together is truely scary. Just when all attention needs to be brought to bear on Y2K. Don't wait to buy the essentials. This time next year may be too late.
Best of luck to your family. Ed Stevens
-- Ed Stevens (email@example.com), October 07, 1998.
It shouldn't take a fortune-teller to foresee a few things with the economy. The world has been riding a 15+ year "good" wave with minimal downturns. A global recession has already begun. The stock market seems to be the last to know. I wish I would have prepared better for the hard financial times to come (even without considering y2k). I plan to take advantage of the insanely low interest rate and purchase a cheap house and ride out the storm.
Politically, I have no clue as to what the future holds. That is the scary front. From Saddam to Milosivic to Yeltsin/whoever to Osama bin Lade to Arafat to Net..>yahoo (?) to CHINA to good 'ol Bill Clinton. We should all be afraid, be very afraid -- y2k or no.
-- Slick (firstname.lastname@example.org), October 07, 1998.
Things are great, the economy is good, people are employed, everyone loves the President, Greenspan is going to lower the interest rates again, what does any have to complain about? Liar, liar, pants on fire! Just remember when someone says things are great, that's when I'm ready for the hatchet to fall. I never use to be a pessimist, but I just can't help this gut feeling I have.
-- Bardou (email@example.com), October 07, 1998.
When I hear the Wall Street slicksters say BUY,BUY(maybe they really mean, BYE, BYE) I know it's time to SELL. How can those guys keep straight faces? I think the sheeple have lost confidence and the SWHTF.
-- Dave (firstname.lastname@example.org), October 07, 1998.
Anybody care to hazard a SWAG at which of the two choices we will see unfold in regards to the economy? 1. We go straight into a plain old fashioned depression (it used to be called a panic, remember that word?) 2. We go through a hyper-inflation before we get to the above.
There really aren't any other choices available to us. If you understand the history of fiat currencies, or even fiat coins in case of Rome. Back then they changed the content of the coins to allow more to be minted. Does this sound familiar to anyone?
I believe that we will witness curtain #2 since that is beyond doubt the worst thing, short of nuclear war, that can happen to an economy. I think we are going to see a massive printing of currencies on the scale that will dwarf what happened in Germany in the twenties.
At the moment we are Rome in a Roman empire and as long as we can export our true inflation (we are the world's reserve currency) we will struggle along in the dance of musical chairs. If the ECU does come into being,as it appears to be doing, we will no longer be the king of the hill. We do, however have the honor of being the far and away all time champs of debt though. Creative auditing and finance still can't hide that fact. I haven't checked lately but the last time I looked we were still running a hugh(real)deficit. Does anyone remember "the peace dividend"? I could swear that that was going to cure all of our problems for us. Or can you remember when president Johnson said "the american people will never stand still for a $100 billion annual budget"?,or Mr. Nixon's first ever $300 billion budget?. I believe we fought WW11 with about $400 billions,total. Now we spend $1.77 Trillion per year, and I doubt if anyone of us out here in cyberland can claim to be that much richer than before. No, I am not looking back through the misty veils wearing rose colored glasses, I am merely presenting the facts. If you believe that we are running a budget surplus this year (1999) I have some ocean front property in Arizona that I can sell you real cheap. It seems that we have the good fortune to be the "keepers of the watch" during the most interesting moment in all of our history. We seem to be witness to the damnest set of circumstances that man has had to face. And we did it all by ourselves, people. No outside help required, Thank you very much. Two lousy digits in a small field, some paper, and probably most important of the three, moral decay of the race as a whole. NO, I do not mean to imply that to anyone out there. I am merely making a generalized comment on the species. We SEEM to have degenerated as a people. Feel free to think that I am wrong on all counts,or even whacko. It is your right to feel as you wish. Flame as you wish - or ignore me if you choose to. I can and will live through it either way.
I do however have my doubts about my chances in the "Main Events" to come. But you better believe that I will go down fighting if I do indeed go down.
FWIW: I am very sorry to hear of the reduction in work hours at your house. I wish that the world could be a lot better to you and to your family. Let's hope that it will get a lot better for all of you.
-- sweetolebob(La) (email@example.com), October 07, 1998.
Here's what amuses/amazes me about the whole thing. Wasn't it just, like, a month or so ago that everyone was saying ol' Bill was so high in the polls because the economy was staying strong? Next thing you know - fwoosh! There are people 30+ years old who have never seen anything but (relative) prosperity - this is hitting them like a ton o' bricks. And YET, once again......if you talk to a lot of average folks on the street and say, "Boy, that stuff about the stock market and the economy is pretty scary, huh?" they look at you and say, "Oh, that doesn't affect me, I'm not in the stock market. All I have is a 401k plan at work." Honestly!!
-- Melissa (firstname.lastname@example.org), October 08, 1998.
SOB, you left out the scenario that I think is most likely:
1. Crash, depression
2. Gov. tries to get us out of it by printing even more money
3. THAT results in hyperinflation (ala Germany, 1920s, where a wheebarrow full of money wouldn't buy a pair of boots)
Hmm. If either a crash or (especially) hyperinflation occurs, commodities in hand will be worth while having. In other words, even if Y2K wasn't going to be a big problem it would be great to have a couple of year's supply of food and a wood burning stove on hand.
-- rocky knolls (email@example.com), October 08, 1998.
My SWAG on the economy near term is: 1:) Stock market crash (2000 - 3000 DOW) in one week probably 1Q 99 2:) Deflation for rest of 99, DOW drifts down to 1000 - 1500 3:) Govt tries to stimulate with BIG spending 3Q 99 4:) Inflation starts 4Q 99 as basics get scarcer, money supply grows 5:) Y2K hits - all stock trading ceases --> off to the unknown!!
-- R. D..Herring (firstname.lastname@example.org), October 08, 1998.
My SWAG on the long term is that a HUGE chunk will be taken out of the middle. Hundreds of thousands of companies will go out of business. National, State/Provincial, County/Local governments will be operative or inoperative to various degrees. There will be "Data Islands." A few companies here and there, and government entities of various sizes and flavors will, when they have juice and telecom, morph into hybrid organizations and gobble up other entities. New data networks will evolve, and they'll look so strange, I can't even picture them.
Beyond that, everything else will be localized. Communes will emerge in areas where people are willing to work together for survival. Most transactions will be local. In other areas, people will turn on each other. Large swaths of inner cities will burn to the ground. Ethnic enclaves will develop ala the former Yugoslavia in some places, class based enclaves will develop in other areas, ala gated communities. Some people will "disappear" others will starve, some will commit suicide. The military will prevent large scale movements of people. You'll need papers to get from New York City to New Jersey. People who are poor now, will "suffer" the least because their expectaions are already low. The super-rich will be able to protect themselves. It's us suckers in the middle who will have the hardest time of it. I expect the world population to be less in 10 years than it is now. Much less. Hopefully, there won't be a major blood-letting. Our species seems to enjoy that.
In a few years, a new localized economy will emerge along side a new, mega corporate economy. There will probably be a few big players, and they'll control the next emergence of "global economy." The suburbs will be filled with gardens, the big cities will be quiet. A few "strong leaders" will emerge, and people will be charmed by them. What the world looks like in twenty years, well, that's anyone's guess...
-- pshannon (email@example.com), October 08, 1998.
If the world economy crashes, the only thing historically that picks it up again is a world war....to keep a world war going, you need weapons and gasoline. This is reality, and if we want to play in the real world we have to take advantage of it. We plan to be completely out of stocks except for oils which we expect to rise sometime after 2000. We probably will have to sit tight for now and suffer the low prices, but it is a great buying opprtunity for those who have beans, bullets, stoves, land and barterables etc. It seems that we might profit from misery, but we try to take care of our own, so nobody will have to take care of us. Check out the site www.chaostan.com
-- Laurane (firstname.lastname@example.org), October 08, 1998.
Laurane: Your oil stocks might be the best investment you ever made in the long run. Oil shortages in the past have traditionally driven up stock prices, and the mother of all oil shortages is coming in the next two decades as the Hubbert Curve kicks in. As for the immediate future, I don't see hyperinflation as long as Greenspan is running the Fed. A deflationary depression is more likely, along the lines of what is already happening in Japan. When Greenspan leaves, all bets are off.
-- J.D. Clark (email@example.com), October 08, 1998.
many GREAT threads here, none postive, but thats okay. got on my knees today, (i do everday) asked God to See Us Through, I believe he will. still thanks all for the insights. I really just wanted to Warn all I could about impending danger, timely also as stock market is BAD today...HEY WASNT IT JUST MONDAY PREZ SAID WE HAD A SURPLUS?????? Next day bottom fell out of that...to that isay as the old song goes "THINGS THAT MAKE YA GO HMMMMM.......' LOVE YA'S
-- Werebroke (firstname.lastname@example.org), October 08, 1998.
RD I think you've got it right but your dates may be a bit long/optimistic. At some ppoint in the REAL near future, the Japanese banks have got to report where they are to their gov't, and at that point we may see that they have run out of money. Also, sometime in this month, the Hedgies get to report here. I suspect that we will see another of those weekends from H**L that we saw when PennCentral finally went down and we ran out of money, for about 15 hours. (And we'll find out about it the same way, in a book in a couple of years. . . or the cop'll really drop in the pot)
If you are unfamiliar with the story, I believe it's in a book by "Adam Smith" printed in about 85 (+ or -) which might be titled "The Money Game" at least that's the pigeon-hole that I've stored the story in in my skull. The Access path is a bit torturous but that's what I came up with.
Anyway, as things continue to develop, watch the Qtrly reports due out in the next 6 days. We may be closer than we want to believe.
-- Chuck a Night Driver (email@example.com), October 09, 1998.
It's called a 'market cycle'. Guess which phase we're in. Sorry, don't mean to be a smart-ass but, really.
-- D. Krstulovich (firstname.lastname@example.org), October 10, 1998.
The world economy (including the U.S.) will be taken out by the "one- two punch". The right jab is about to hit. Look for 6000 Dow by 1/1/99, rising unemployment and bailouts everywhere (IMF & World Bank) Come second quarter 1999, the left hook will be on its way. The left hook ofcourse is Y2K. No one willing to spend money to fix something they are not sure about. Sales down, earnings down, no good news. Lots of early retirements! Bank and food runs by third quarter 1999. 1/1/00? WWIII? I hope not. Wars used to be a good economic stimulant, but the prospect of a world war ... The "Amish" alternative view of Y2K is looking pretty damn good right now.
-- Bill (email@example.com), October 10, 1998.
The next epoch is upon us fast. If you've ever read anything about biorhythms, we are at multiple critical...what shall we say...septuple or octuple critical systems indicators. Reminds me much of the great book "The Fourth Turning"...or anything you can read on the relative stasis of systems (or seeming stasis), followed by event that shifts the system into something new...you can see it biological ecosystems on our lovely planet(systems theory). The economy is but one of the micro systems within the macro system here....Grab your helmets everyone....strap in.
If you'd like to create and vision with us the future-now, join us at Beyond 2000 Discussion Board at:
-- Donna Barthuley (firstname.lastname@example.org), October 10, 1998.