To FLAME! can we be 100% certain that it wont be very serious???greenspun.com : LUSENET : TimeBomb 2000 (Y2000) : One Thread
Dear flame target!maybe you are right. But what if you are wrong? it is a tough issue!
I am in the process of publishing the Year 2000 Millennium Bug report a 61,000 word world view on the Y2K; cause and effect with first hand accounts from insider observations re private / public remediation project advancements and problems.
The Y2K is not the only expected economic disruption descending upon us this century, [as we have read on this forum over the last 6 months] there is also the EMU's global push to introduce the Euro dollar this coming January [my sources in the UK tells me it will be an economic disaster that may bring the world economic system to it's knees long before Y2K hits full force.
Then there is 'cycle 23 of Solar Max' which is shaping up to be the biggest solar flare ever recorded, the last one 11 years ago knocked out the power grid in Canada and vast parts of the US destroying transformers as if they were toys. NASA is particularly troubled by this coming cycle 23 as it is due the same time as the meteorite shower; both of these, it is predicted will knock out many of the communications satellites and effect the electromagnetic fields within all DC/AC power generation plants worldwide. The CIA has even issued warning to all it's staff to prepare for the worst.
Take into account the growing decline of the Asian market, Russia's socio/economic fall and Germany's 60% investment in Russian banking industry. check out the step by step incremental decline in the NASQUE the Nikki, DOW and Wall street over the last 6 months period since the Asian market deteriation. Also take into account the fact the china [one of the biggest manufacturing market bases to supply America, Australia, and Britain] has 80% pirated software in their manufacturing base.
In my y2k report I address this issue. It has been estimated that [with out taking China into account] there is a whooping 40% pirated software in use globally. What does this mean? It means that these industries that are using pirated software will be in no position to declare compliance status, they will be in no position to go to the software manufacturers and ask for help with an up grade.
The reason that this is such an issue is that for the global economy to survive in it's present form, there needs to be a 100% Y2K fix of every system worldwide, otherwise the spin-off effect will cause a domino phenomenon that may take 6 months before it runs it full course.
Mr Graham Inchly the Australian governments Y2K anchor man, has stated that all it takes is for 10% of small business to go to the wall at the same time to bring on a major recession, he goe's on to state that the Australian Gov, expect much more than 10% to go down; quote 'we are expecting much more than 10%, we are expecting economic meltdown'. These are bold words form a government man.
In my report I go into detail analysing the Auditor Generals Report # 27 on the compliance of over 60 Australian Commonwealth agency's. 35 of which had never heard about Y2K until they received the questionnaire and this was in late 1997 early 1998. Get the picture? Read my report it took me 6 months 10 hours a day 6 days a week to research and write.
Russ Kelly and Associates Inc have done the book review for me see www.russkelly.com for their qualifications; Russ stated 'without a doubt, the best single book I have seen on the topic of the "Millennium Bug". I may be blowing my own trumpet here, but i believe that the issue of Y2K is the most important issue to face our present globalisation network at a systemic level ever, I repeat ever. and you need to read my report to gather the facts before you make statement about it only lasting 6 months;
My personal views are - I believe we are up dung creek in a barbwire canoe without a paddle
Timothy J Wilbur soc sci; Hom; maiwcw; PC business management consultent; and gentelman farmer Beyond 2000 Awareness Project 'The Year 2000 Millennium Bug Report' Rosebank 2480 NSW Australia firstname.lastname@example.org http://expage.com/page/beyond2000
-- Timothy J Wilbur (email@example.com), October 06, 1998
Timothy, my friend, the probability of serious problems NOT not occurring during the next few years is negligible.
John Howard has written us off as lacking in intelligence and in the abiility to think for ourselves. He's held up his own IQ, and his academic credentials. (Pride?)
He accuses us of being controlled by Gary North or others of that nature. (I've heard that before, too: "I don't like the messenger, so I can't accept the message," or, "Look at me, I am thinking for myself since I don't agree.")
He holds up one post to this forum as absurd (actually it isn't absurd......it could happen.....it's just not proven) and touts the appearance of this post as evidence of our lack of discernment.
He is a sceptic. But, he holds up no proof.......he just says, "I don't believe." That's his right. Timothy, please don't try to disuade the gentleman with facts.
Good to see you here again.
-- rocky (firstname.lastname@example.org), October 06, 1998.
Y2K is like anything else in life, you get in line and you take your chances. I've never met anyone in my life where they had to tell me what their IQ was. I have worked with highly intelligent people for the past 25 years, and I can tell you I wouldn't trade my common sense for their book smarts. Some are socialists, some don't know what a bar of soap is, some have no social graces, and some are just plain stupid despite their "high IQ."
-- Bardou (email@example.com), October 06, 1998.
Yeah but people with a high IQ are persecuted. IQ has nothing to do with other personality traits. It makes other people hostile quite obviously.
-- Richard Dale (firstname.lastname@example.org), October 06, 1998.
Where do you get hostility from? I think it's rather amusing myself.
-- Bardou (email@example.com), October 06, 1998.
People with "IQ" are not persecuted because of their "IQ". Actually, people with "IQ" persecute themselves because they hold up this mythical number and then act, without thought, in spite of it.
-- Michael Taylor (firstname.lastname@example.org), October 06, 1998.
I always smile when somebody whips out his I Q, like it is some sort of a big d!ck contest, Mine is bigger than yours. I Q is important, but so is experience (street smarts) in the real world. I have been in the building industry for many years, it never ceases to amaze me when I see plans drawn up by some NKOTB who has never swung a hammer. Invariably, the nailing specs are under what the real world calls for. Brains are good, but dont discount Been there, done that.
PS, for those who care about such things, havent been I Q tested since grade school, dont know what showed up then, dont care.
-- Uncle Deedah (email@example.com), October 06, 1998.
I'm certainly sorry if talking about education and IQ ticked people off. That may have been ill-advised. I was NOT trying to hold myself up as better than anyone else; there are certainly a lot of smart people who participate and contribute to this forum.
Suppose I did a poor job of communicating that. If anyone was offended, I certainly apologize. That was not the intent.
What I WAS trying to do was to say that there are people with good minds who don't see Y2K as TEOTWAWKI. No, everything's not going to be 'just fine'; there will be big problems. But I just think that the severity gets exaggerated in here quite a lot.
-- John Howard (Greenville, NC) (firstname.lastname@example.org), October 06, 1998.
Uncle Deedah, ROFL. I never got to witness one of "those" contests. Had my IQ tested at 16 and it was 159. However, I can tell you that age and having children has taken its toll! :-) Don't know what it is today, and don't care, either. I'm just happy once I get to the living room to remember what I went in there for. :-)
-- Gayla Dunbar (email@example.com), October 06, 1998.
Patience, patience guys. I think he's smart to realize we're ganging up on him.... 8<). But don't everybody pile on at once, the guys on the bottom get squished too.
About the first of each month, as the progress of different things get "fixed", other get reported 'tested", and other (government) Polyanna's repeat their mantra "that everything will be okay" "don't panic", "there won't be a problem in (fill in the blank) system." it probably is a good ides to be reminded that this isn't a static problem that people aren't trying to solve.
An attitude of hopelessness, in say May 1998, may have to change by Oct 1998. And vice versa - things are now later (true) and things aren't fixed yet (true) but more companies are working (also true.)
So, as punishment for his optimism, I nominate he be assigned a "polyanna" watch, with monthly reports about the relative "Polyanna" ranking of the world. Just to keep the rest of us pessimists honest.
Ranking should be on a scale of Parrots: 1 parrot means the The S**t Has Almost Hit The Fan, and 10 Parrots means the roses have hit the fan, and everybody should smell their perfume while looking through rose-colored glasses.
-- Robert A. Cook, P.E. (Kennesaw, GA) (firstname.lastname@example.org), October 06, 1998.
HEY! I DID have one of those tests done 5 kids and 2 husbands ago (it was 142, thank you), I have ALSO never seen one of "those" contests (keep waiting to see one advertised though), I RARELY remember what I went into the living room for, and I STILL don't know whether or not it will be TSHTF. But I do think that a reasonable intelligent (oxymoron?), prudent person, seeing all the evidence lately of possible disruption related to Y2K, weather changes, economic changes and everything else would consider it suicidal not to make some basic preparations. What the heck? Who said that - "If I'm wrong, fine - but if you're wrong, you die."
-- Melissa (email@example.com), October 06, 1998.
=What the heck? Who said that - "If I'm wrong, fine - but if you're wrong, you die."=
Um, I don't remember his name, but I think it was that dead guy over there in the corner.
-- Uncle Deedah (firstname.lastname@example.org), October 07, 1998.
Melissa, you have to go to the bathroom before TSHTF, not the living room.
Hmmmm. that doesn't sound right either. His image of stting in a barbed wire canoe just sends tingles up my spine ... but I'm not sure why I went to the living room either.
-- Robert A. Cook, P.E. (Kennesaw, GA) (email@example.com), October 07, 1998.
BTW, sorry about all the shouting in capital letters in the last post. I was excited about the contest. :-) Sorry about the misquoting too, but I was worried about getting my turn at the bathroom if TSHTF. I have 5 kids here and it's never gonna be my turn.
-- Melissa (firstname.lastname@example.org), October 07, 1998.
In my business I run into high priced folks who are aledgedly the Creme de la Creme in their chosen fields. As one of the people who works for a large legal firm which shall remain nameless but ranks in the top 5 (and we have 4 out of the top five headquartered here) says "We hire the top 1/2 0f the top 1/2 of the top 1% here,and it's my job to see that they all know what they are supposed to know. My problem is I wonder who ties their shoes!"
(Understand these folks come from the MOST prestigious schools in the world!)
Next time you are confronted with a high priced lawyer in an adsversarial position, check to see if he wears loafers. 4 to 1 he does!
-- Chuck a Night Driver (email@example.com), October 07, 1998.
Sharing an observation...it seems that intelligence is only a part of the quotient in disbelievers or flaming skeptics. Education is another part. The vast majority of the above group of people are also educated with 4 years of college or more. Now, I don't know why this is but I can speculate. Good ole' common sense gets stomped on in college. You get figures, garbage history and a massive amount of others' opinions sprinkled with fact etc. Now I am not flaming the educated here, I am simply making an observation. I have some college under my hat, but to be honest, a degree does not necessarily make for much more than a means to earn more bucks. A better education can be found in simply reading extensively on a wide variety of topics and coming to your own conclusions about truth, fiction, life, etc. I consider myself more comprehensively educated as a result, and I ain't no spring chicken. By the way, I 'could' wave my IQ around, but I don't feel the need.
-- Goldi (firstname.lastname@example.org), October 09, 1998.
A few thoughts about all of this IQ stuff:
Book learning and/or college degree do not change your IQ.
I'm speculating here, but I would bet that the sum total of IQs for all auto mechanics is higher than the total for all lawyers.
Einstein wore sandals all of the time because he couldn't tie shoes.
-- Buddy (DC) (email@example.com), October 09, 1998.
I heard also that all of his suits were the same, so that he would not have to clutter his mind deciding what to wear.
-- Uncle Deedah (firstname.lastname@example.org), October 09, 1998.
I also heard that Einstein didn't bother to learn his telephone number. Supposedly he said he didn't want to clutter his memory with something that he could look up if he needed to. Actually, that makes sense to me, maybe I'm smarter than I thought... 8-)
-- Tricia the Canuck (email@example.com), October 09, 1998.
Back to IQ. Its amazing how people with intelligence are slagged off by those without? Its only in anglo saxon countries that intelligence is derided. After all the majority of the population relies on the intelligent few (inventors, discoverer composers). Intelligence needs recognition and nurture, not hostility. I'm not saying that IQ in itself is the be all end all, intelligence has to be developed and practically applied. I'm not saying that I personally better than anyone, but the greats in history do come from the top 1%. I would say that most of the time people of average intelligence can't recognise it. Of course there are many people with high intelligence who may not realise it. The tendency is for Western Scoiety to drag those members who are more gifted down to the average.
To reiterate I am talking generally about the intelligent not (only!) myself.
-- Richard Dale (firstname.lastname@example.org), October 12, 1998.