Who will be first to know?

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Thinking about y2k and how it will effect the whole entire world...I was wondering Who will be first? Since we are all on different time zones, where will it be midnight at the turn of the year 2000, first? Where in the world will the lights first go out? Will some of us see it on t.v. if we are not first effected by the power outage? What a wierd New Year's Eve celebration it will be! For some people, they will be too drunk to notice. For the rest of us...we will start our journey into the unknown for an indefinite amount of time. Glad that it is on a week-end! Wouldn't want to be alone. So Who will be first? Who will get to be last? Just wondering. Curious Carol

-- Curious Carol (Curious@Lurker.net), September 18, 1998

Answers

Actually, most of the world will be ahead of the USA. The International Date Line runs through the Pacific, so Australia, Asia, Africa and Europe will see the effects of Y2K before the Americas. I have thought about this, and I plan to monitor all the news on 12/31/99 to see what we can expect.

-- Mike (gartner@execpc.com), September 18, 1998.
Hi Curious Carol! I found an interesting article about this a few weeks ago. It seems Fiji will be one of the first. Glad you came out of lurking! :-)

http://www.sddt.com/files/librarywire/98/08/18/faj.html

-- Gayla Dunbar (privacy@please.com), September 18, 1998.

Who will be first in the U.S.A? Who will be the last? C. Carol

-- Curious Carol (Curious@Lurker.net), September 19, 1998.
Unfortunatly, the experience in other countries won't relate very well to what will happen in USA. Many countries are trying to pretend there is no problem. Others are saying they will fix it after the problem occurs. Europe has decided the EURO problem takes priority. Russia just isn't interested, and China - well who knows what the Chinese govt is doing? I think they are probably hoping for enough turmoil to try to take Taiwan. From what I have been able to find out, the US will probably be the best prepared of the high-tech nations. Ain't that a scary thought!!!

-- Paul Davis (davisp1953@yahoo.com), September 19, 1998.
Just follow the sun. In America the east coast will be hit first and then it will just flow across the time zones.

-- Pastor Chris (pastorchris@lifetel.com), September 19, 1998.
I was thinking about this earlier this evening...Logic would say, East Coast first, then Central, Mountain, Pacific and Hawaii, as Pastor Chris has said. However, if the power grid is so interlocked from Canada to the USA to Mexico, and from east to west, it would also seem that at the stroke of midnight, when the Ball drops in Times Square and the first power facility goes down, that the entire North American Continent will just 'wink out' within seconds as the grid dies. It would be interesting to observe from Space, but getting back home might be a problem.

-- Willis Thomason (BANDIT1@ontheroad.com), September 19, 1998.
Hi Carol,

You may get someone in Fiji to announce the impact of 1/1/2000. Haven't seen too many postings from Fiji here. New Zealand may be the first nation with significant population to experience Y2K. I expect that you may hear from us first. For what it is worth the first signs may be much earlier.. perhaps 9/9/99 or even 1/1/99. No one is quite sure. Here's hoping the news is good.

Best Regards, BobB, Hamilton, New Zealand.

-- Bob Barbour (r.barbour@waikato.ac.nz), September 19, 1998.

I live in Ohio, so we'll see midnight 15 hours after the new year begins in the Pacific Ocean. I plan to take off work on 12/31/1999 and park in front of CNN starting at 9:00 a.m. EST. Then for the next 15 hours I can watch the events unfold around the globe. The prospect of what could happen is so exciting... I can hardly wait!

-- Roy Miller (millerod@bright.net), September 19, 1998.
To Bob Barbour in New Zealand: Since you may well be our first contact, is there any possibility that you could post what's going on there as Y2K begins (assuming that you have electricity and phone service to use your computer ?) What does New Zealand seem to be doing so far as preparing? Can you tell or are you as much in the dark as the US is? Blessings and peace to you. Jen!

-- Jen White (jenwhite@compuserve.com), September 19, 1998.
Hi Folks,

Re Info on the Impact of Y2K Should Y2K issues appear before 1/1/2000 wild horses couldn't stop me from posting to this group. But Dec 31 Jan 1 is the middle of our summer vacation. I was planning to be out of the city, but still hope to post from home what is happening that day and in subsequent days as events unfold. I don't think the impact will be immediate but rather a gradual 'darkening' of the planet as failing systems affect our ability to communicate about and run computer based systems. In answer to your question Jen, be glad to do what I can.

-- Bob Barbour (Bob Barbour@waikato.ac.nz), September 19, 1998.

IMPORTANT!! IMPORTANT!!!! I was looking at a map of nuclear power plants of the U.S. Most are located of the East Coast. The East Coast will be the first in the U.S. to go out. Put two and two together.

-- Jose Segura (josesegura@hotmail.com), September 20, 1998.
Guys, stop being so sure that power will immediately stop: granted it might, but more likely (and nobody knows) is things won't change immediately at the stroke of midnight at any particular time zone.

Consider these "thumb" rules about Y2K: - a LOT more people are going to become aware of the problem over the next 14 months, - these people will begin studying the problem, - no (honest) person, programmer, or manager has ever studied the problem and become "less" concerned, or become "more" complacent, than they were before they studied the problem (This does leave out: liars, most politicians, the media, and those who listen to the media; but you can fool some of the people all of the time anyway...) - these people are going to begin getting real worried (define "real" to various degrees) and will increase pressure to "fix" things and fund "fixes" and "live tests" in their corporations and utilities. - so there will be substantial pressure for progress, and a lot of actual progress in remediation between now and 2000. (The politicians will probably take credit for all of the progress however.)

Make a wild assumption that "most" critical programs are fixed: this leaves about 7% that will still fail - but they will fail randomly, and some (most) of these failures are "business" related: buying, ordering, billing, shipping, inventories, etc. So **all** actual utility distribution will probably not be affected immediately by the remaining undiscobvered program faults, and by the insertion of new bugs when others are corrected.

Assume the biggest problem **that can't be solved** between now and the troubles is embedded controllers.

But we also "know" some (but not all) controllers are affected. Some of these will fail. The critical controllers will most likely either freeze open, freeze as-is, or freeze shut. With a time dilation effect, some will go stupid over a period of time, but still may be somewhat acurate at the beginning.

So, in my humblet wild a*s guessing opnion (IHWAGO), it is most likely that failures won't happen until something changes to upset the delicate balance of existing systems:

for example: 15 minutes after the Times Square celebration when 10 million toilets are simultaneously flushed in the Eastern Time Zone. Then TSHTF.

-- Robert A. Cook, P.E. (Kennesaw, GA) (cook.r@csaatl.com), September 20, 1998.

Actually, I think I'm the first to know....anybody else seeing "lines" through the last 2-3 answers?

No other thread seems to be behaving weirdly.

Recommend no other answers be posted here.

-- Robert A. Cook, P.E. (Kennesaw, GA) (cook.r@csaatl.com), September 20, 1998.

Robert:

Yes! Yes, I see them too! The lines! What could it mean?

Sorry - got carried away...

About the timing of failures, I agree that a majority of system failures will only become apparent over time, rather than at the stroke of midnight. But I think that's when most of the failures will begin. We should have some some failures throughout 1999, building to a greater frequency on 1/1/00. Even if it takes several hours for systems to fail after the clock rolls over, we would probably begin hearing some news from Australia, Japan, etc.

I was also thinking about how many plants in this country have maintenance shutdowns over the Christmas to New Years holidays. Restarting production on Monday morning could be very interesting.

P.S. I hope the lines don't get me!

-- Mike (gartner@execpc.com), September 20, 1998.

Robert- I agree. I don't think we will see TEOTWAWKI at midnight on that date. I think we will see disruptions which, at the time, seem isolated and irritating, but which domino their way into things that end up strangling business, the economy, and the delivery of the services we now take for granted. I MIGHT have a big party that night - might be the last big party we have for a long, long time.

PS I see the lines too. I thought it was just me! :-)

-- Melissa (financed@forbin.com), September 20, 1998.

Wow! My first question here on the forum (which I was not sure that I should ask to begin with!) and then some of the answers get lined out! HMMMMM? Not sure what's going on here. On that note...I'm outta here... Carol

-- Curious Carol (Curious@Lurker.net), September 21, 1998.
I believe someone forgot to close an HTML tag. This should cure it.

-- Amy Leone (aleone@amp.com), September 21, 1998.
Damn I'm good.

-- Amy Leone (aleone@amp.com), September 21, 1998.
Okay Amy, you're good: you got the lines to go away.

Now, how are you going to get Carol back?

-- Robert A. Cook, P.E. (Kennesaw, GA) (cook.r@csaatl.com), September 21, 1998.

Thanks for fixing that! I was much concerned when I saw those lines! Wasn't sure just what was going on. I'll be lurking around still. Thanks guys, Carol

-- Curious Carol (Curious@Lurker.net), September 21, 1998.
Gosh, Amy's good with computers! She speaks fluent HTML! She must know the secret to fixing Y2K! Save us, Amy, save us!! 8-}]

-- Mac (sneak@lurk.com), September 21, 1998.
How come the lines have started again?

-- Craig (craig@ccinet.ab.ca), September 22, 1998.
It's okay, they've stopped now.

-- Craig (craig@ccinet.ab.ca), September 22, 1998.
Hmmmm, wasn't it "fortunate" we had Amy (if that's your real name) around to fix this line problem. Maybe a little *too* fortunate if you get my drift. Kinda like the fireman who starts fires and then rescues the toddler from the blaze making him an instant hero. Dammit! Black helicopters overhead (again!). Must cease transmitting. Will resume posting as soon as the coast is clear. Y2K OR BUST! (No, it's not much of a slogan, I'll admit, but it's all I've got).

-- anon (anon@anon.com), September 23, 1998.
Anon

I find that it helps if I line the inside of my hat with tin foil, the signal strength is markedly reduced. Perhaps this would work for you too.

-- Uncle Deedah (oncebitten@twiceshy.com), September 23, 1998.

Yo! To the Craig person, a mild comment please.

You know what the difference is between a magician, a show-off, and a teacher and a trainer?

A magician uses unknown methods and secret techniques hidden from his audience to amuse, to mystify, and to entertain, usually for a profit. Any suitably advanced technology is, of course, "magic" to the technologically ignorant.

A showoff does the same thing, but doesn't make a profit.

A teacher goes to school to learn how to teach his students, but doesn't ever get taught how to do the trick, and then grades his students on whether or not they passed the test.

A trainer analyzes what his students need to know, determines who is the expert in the subject he wants to teach, defines what parts of that subject he is going to teach and how, presents the instructions, identifies the prerequites, the materials and equipemnt needed, and then evaluates himself based on whether his students can successfully do the task they need to do.

If his students can't do the identified tasks, the trainer has failed and he must fix the lesson plan, then repeat the class.

So take the d**m hint and train us!!!!

-- Robert A. Cook, P.E. (Kennesaw, GA) (cook.r@csaatl.com), September 23, 1998.

If you want to learn more about HTML, may I suggest lekollar@nyx.net), September 23, 1998.
I seem to have a bad habit of leaving quotes out of URLs. Sorry. What I meant to say was, look at htmlhelp.com.

Just remember to close all quotes & brackets. :-)

-- Larry Kollar (lekollar@nyx.net), September 24, 1998.

How do you remember all ALL of this? Is there a simple list somewhere of things like bold, italics, etc.?

-- Gayla Dunbar (privacy@please.com), September 25, 1998.
Gayla, what I've found to be a great help is the HTML Reference Library, which is a free file you can download and install on your computer. It becomes a Windows help-file type thing which you can call up at any time to answer HTML questions -- which tag does which thing, syntax, etc.

There are several versions available at http://www.maui.net/~dml/ htmlhlp.html. Be sure and read all the documentation about required software etc. before selecting a version to download.

The most complete version, 4.0, is available at http://hot.virtual-p c.com/htmlib/where.htm. This version requires MS Internet Explorer 4.0 or 4.01 to be installed on your machine, as well as a sufficiently up-to-date version of HtmlHelp 1.1 (links to appropriate downloads/updates are right there at that webpage) -- again, check out all the whereto's and whyfor's before downloading.

Once this lil' jewel's installed, you'll have just about everything you need to know, as far as HTML basics are concerned. ZDNet gave the program a 5-star rating, and it's deserved.

-- John Howard (Greenville, NC) (pcdir@prodigy.net), September 25, 1998.

A clarification, needed or not: ya don't have to be actually using IE 4.x to use the HTML Ref. Lib. Just have to have IE installed on your puter. Heck, I don't even use IE but about 1% of the time; Netscape kinda guy. But both are free downloads, so why not have both...and so many Microsoft/Windows things run better/are more full-featured if you have IE 4.x installed (much to Ms. Reno's chagrin, huh).

HTML Reference Library is a free-standing program, can be run right by itself.

Some more HTML help/tutorial/info links:

http://webbuilder.netscape.com/computing/webbuilder/Authoring/Htm l/

http://www.mcp.com/resourc es/webpub/

http://www.charm.net/ ~lejeune/styles.html

http:/ /www.cc.ukans.edu/~acs/docs/other/HTML_quick.shtml

-- John Howard (pcdir@prodigy.net), September 25, 1998.

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