Hello,

I am a computer consultant in the south-central PA area (i.e., the Harrisburg, Lancaster, York area). Currently my wife, a few of my computer-consultant friends and I are working on contigency plans for the various Y2K power-outage senarios. We are looking for others who would be interested in having meetings to discuss these issues further.

It takes many views and opinions to spot the weaknesses and critical issues for even simple situations. This is, unfortunately a complex one. It is going to take a fare amount of effort to try to be prepared in time, but I feel that we are up to the challenge.

Please contact me if you have interest.

If anyone outside of our geographic area has comments or recommendations we would love to hear them.

Thanks for your time,

Steve

-- Anonymous, September 01, 1998

Answers

Howdy Steve,

We (Wife and I, some friends) are in the same boat as you. We're doing our best to guess the future and prepare for it. I must say the news gets worse almost daily. I had expected a real surge of GOOD news as business's and agencies complete their repairs. I had thought the bottom line would be: is there 'enough' good news? Guess I was wrong.

There are many threats resulting from Y2K, but I agree that loss of power is a major one. I believe it's the key point on which all the scenarios turn. Keep power without any major failures, and we can expect a fairly quick recovery. Lose power for any length of time and the recovery time expands exponentially.

How I see it is this: Any long term loss of power in a region is going to effectivly end normal society as we know it in that region. Without power, nobody goes to work, stores don't open, heaters don't work, deliveries don't happen, all general services are curtailed or shut down. Our business bank across the street has their doors locked within 15 seconds of a power loss. Standard security procedure. Talking with their manager, I just cannot see them with any form of operating business without power. WE will not operate as a business without power (auto repair shop).

We are preparing as best we can. Our range of preparations go from a serious financial downturn (worst for us, we have no reserves) to an utter collapse. Loss of power complicates and worsens everything.

We do feel that a serious financial hit is the least we can expect. If everything important is fixed, without fail, on time, and does not conflict, then the cost of doing so alone will depress our economy to a depth we have never seen in our lifetime. That's the best that can happen. From there the scenarios play out in more and more depressing and dangerous ways.

In trying to plan for the possible futures, we have looked closely at our power situation. I have spoken with people at PP+L and gotten very little info. They have very effectivly clammed up. Based on what little info I have gathered I have almost zero confidence in their ability to keep the lights on. So......no power is big player in what we face. The possible results stretch like the spreading cracks of a windshield hit by a brick. They intersect and intertwine till they are untracable.

Part of our solution was to equip ourselves to live with as little electrical generation as possible. Our main weakness is water. Our well is over 300 feet deep and MUST be pumped with power. Towards that end we have purchased a 5500K gen set and plan to have some fuel stocks. I expect to be putting that fuel in place by months end, rotating it thru our vehicles to keep it fresh as long as possible. If/when fuel becomes unavailable we will stabalize our stock for long term storage and then ration it in miserly fashion.

We have also purchased a 22 watt solar panel and controller to charge storage batteries. These can be used for lights and such but are meant to mainly power our radio equipment. Should power be lost for any length of time we should be able to keep commnications established between ourselves and the rest of the world.

All our other preparations are probably what you would expect. Heat, light, cooking, food, water, meds, defense, etc etc etc.

Frankly I wish there was something we could do to effect the general situation. We can't. The best we can do is prepare ourselves so we are not a burden on others if/when severe problems hit. If life goes on with a semblanc of normalty, great! If not, I hope we will be a center of strength for ourselves and our neighbors. Towards that end we are trying to put aside extra food and supplies so we can be generous if required.

I would be interested in hearing your thoughts, and I am sure a meeting could be arranged without too much difficulty.

Regards, Art Welling

artw@lancnews.infi.net

-- Anonymous, September 04, 1998