I have been searching for companies that are truly y2k compliant (i.e. fully tested, preferably on a parallel system). It seems that many companies are stuck in the code remediation phase and project that testing will be done next year. Is this realistic? Should I expect to see large scale code remediation schedule delays into next year? Are we getting around slowly to a general consensus that this thing can't be fixed? I visit Gary North's site often and he says the problem is systemic and unfixable. Normally I would dismiss doomsaying, but his arguments are logical and seemingly rational. Contrast that with those who say it won't be a problem. These optimists make blanket statements and never support their case with facts. Who should I believe?

-- Anonymous, August 28, 1998

Answers

I don't think that you will hear an announcement from any electric utility that their system is 100% Y2k compliant. If you want an assurance that there will be uninterrupted power supply during the month of Jan 2000, it's better to wait till Dec. 1999. The reasons being:

- Most of the utilties are remediating/ testing only Mission critical systems. These are the hardware/ software involved in Generation, Transmission, Telecommunications and Billing. This activity can happen until 3rd Quarter 1999

- Remediation of lower priority systems like Security, Distribution, Facilities and mainframe software will continue till 3rd Quarter of 2000. Most of the utilities can live with minor irritants regarding mainframe COBOL software. It can utmost have a nuisance within their organization.

-- Anonymous, August 28, 1998

Brad, I visit Gary North's site often as well and I agree that the problem is systemic and absolutely impossible to fix in time. Perhaps if each and every country and corporation would have looked at their code and other systems back in 1984 and begun work right then but it's way too late. We've built huge interconnected systems with telecommunications and computer networks and production and manufacturing. Each inter dependent on each other across timelines and country boundries. The financial industry alone is a great area to start pondering. If Russia and Asia can affect our stock market with their problems just think what might happen if the lights go out and the phones go dead? Neither of these countries will make the deadline. Oh, and which deadline? From what I've seen the deadline begins January 1, 1999 when the Jo Anne effect begins. I have two GM cars. GM has 2 billion lines of code to go through. If only 2% of the code is affected that is 40 million lines of code. GM isn't close to being compliant and I can't believe that every supplier will be. GM may be doing business very differently in the future but I think they'll be doing business. I have no idea what it will be but I hope they'll continue to honor my extended warrantee and someday my new car will run again. I'm an optimist and a realist. In a way I look forward to the opportunity to rely more heavily on personal relationships in the future. I'm a small business man. A graphic artist on a Macintosh. Oh... a 100% compliant computer, and I'll still have problems. But, I'm used to a little chaos and a feeling of disconnection from the rest of the world. But, I'm fearful of what kind of chaos this game of dominos will cause only a few short months from now. Doomsday? Absolutely not...well... maybe... well... Until someone with national or international exposure stands up and takes the world wide lead on this we will have no answers. I keep searching for just one organization to come out and say they are 100%, fully

-- Anonymous, September 01, 1998