As the US and global markets start to go south, won't the media start to accelerate the reportage of y2k? As we see bank runs in Russia,Japan and soon Latin America, on the evening news, won't the American public start to get the idea? I thought I had at least till the end on 98 to early 99 to finish my preparations, maybe even more, now I am not so sure. I put it to the group.

-- Bill Solorzano (notaclue@webtv.net), August 27, 1998

Answers

Bill, I'm glad I was not the only one who saw that Russian Bank run on the evening news. It really troubled me. We have a tendency to think that kind of thing can't happen in America again. I'm not so sure anymore. Those people looked so hopeless. I live in Texas and another scene that really troubled me this week was the long line of people in Del Rio waiting to fill their little containers from the FEMA water truck. A word to the wise...

-- Gayla Dunbar (privacy@please.com), August 28, 1998.

There's some difference: as far as I know, those Russian banks aren't guaranteed by the government, not even for Rouble accounts let alone Dollar ones. The biggest puzzle to me is why Russians were actually willing to put money into them in the first place!

You'll have to decide for yourself whether Y2K will make western bank account guarantees worthless or not. End-of-worlders will say yes, believers in hyperinflationary outcomes will buy gold instead (the price of which is currently plunging with the stockmarkets!)

-- Nigel Arnot (nra@maxwell.ph.kcl.ac.uk), August 28, 1998.

Bill, When I saw those bank runs and people complaining they had no money or food, it made me feel more at ease knowing I am well prepared if something like this ever happened here. ANYTHING could trigger a bank run. What makes all this even more ridiculous are the Wall Street slickters telling everyone that "now is the time to buy stocks." Europe is heavily invested in Russia. I heard a slickster by the name of Joe Battapaglia say Germany guaranteed 60 percent of Russian banks. Europe is next!! The shit is going to hit the fan!

-- Dave (dave22@concentric.net), August 28, 1998.

I think the correct term is "when the feces comes into contact with the rotating oscelator". And I don't think the feces will lose contact with the fan until the dow hits about 7k.

-- wise acre (Thankyou@no.com), August 28, 1998.

It depends on how you define "prepare". If you mean buying gold and silver, there is a great window of opportunity NOW, but even more pressing is long-term food storage. I heard today on the radio an interview with a guy from an emergency preparedness place who said they had to pull all of their ads, and won't be filling new orders because they are swamped. Another place said they have massive supplies, but think if you don't move within the next 60 days you will be paying ANY price just to get food storage. If "prepare" means buying food at a local store, you may have more time, but I wouldn't wait until the last minute. I am amazed at the apathy of the public towards all of the crisis that face them. Has the govt been slipping sleeping powder in our drinking water? Nobody I know who is heavily into stocks is getting nervous, it's all "Oh well, it had to happen sometime". These are educated people! It's going to be bad if they all wake up at the same time and find their nightmare was in fact reality.

-- Kay P. (Y2Kay@usa.net), August 28, 1998.

Kay, that is what is commonly known as the herd mentality!

-- Dave (dave22@concentric.net), August 28, 1998.

Bill,

Can you say, "Spin?"

What the media will report (and when and how they report it) will be determined by media mogul consensus, not by facts themselves. So far most of the media is sticking to the cutesy 'survivalist loony kook' approach for y2k stories for the most part. So far most of the stock market stories are of the "I'm investing for the long haul" genre, though a bit of that changed Friday (!).

No matter what kind of coverage the ruble collapse gets, it has seemed to me to have a surrealistic air so far. There were some shots of poor Russians waiting in lines outside banks, but _that_ could never happen _here_, right? After all, those Russians wanted to change their worthless rubles for good ol' American dollars, didn't they? (As if exchanging one fiat currency for another would stave off long term problems.) I suggest you not forget that the American press managed to ignore the plight of millions of Russian kulaks (small farm owners) who starved to death during Stalin's collectivization program during the runup to WW2.

As far as how much time you have: I'm still waiting for an order I placed with a large distributor for a leading supplier of storable food eight weeks ago to get here. On Thursday of last week I called one of the four or five largest dealers in precious metals in the country to place an order for some 1- ounce gold eagles, only to be told that they were out of stock and I would have to wait for more product to be delivered to them before my order could be shipped. Pre-1964 US silver coins are disappearing off the market and the premium for them gets larger all the time though bullion prices are declining (I was recently quoted a price ($4000) by the same company for a $1000 face value bag that was higher than the bag I bought several weeks ago when silver bullion cost $.50 more per ounce). Silver dollars are even more exaggerated- you could have bought a bag of 1000 for less than $6000 a year ago, and now the same bag will cost about $9000. Prices for pre-1934 US gold coins continue to climb rapidly (a VG/AU$20 double eagle has gone from $400 in Jan. to $475 now), even though the price of gold is going down.

How much time do you have? Not very much, I think, for a few areas anyway. If you don't have the parts of your plan which involve the thinnest margined markets (storable food, hard money, etc.) in place now, or in the works, I think you'll find windows of opportunity closing relatively soon. For the other things you have more time, and I think your projections are about right. This is not hype, and I'm not selling anything. Most of the metals dealers and food dealers are not lying- they're inundated with business to the point they can't keep up.

I consider April 1, 1999 to be the drop-dead date for my own planning since that's the day Herr Klinton announced the Gov't WOULD be compliant (it won't). It's also the first day of the new Japanese fiscal year, when the $10 trillion in derivatives deals outstanding for the FY can no longer be hidden. The '99' problem should have become evident by then if it's going to be a big deal also, and if it IS a big deal then serious problems for '9999' (Sept. 9, 1999) can be anticipated. If that turns out to be the case it will serve as an unavoidable indicator that 1/1/00 will be bad.

Watch the news stories, sure, but read between the lines. Correct interpretation of relatively scarce dependable data is critical these days. I depend on de Jager's news clippings (see http://www.year2000.com/articles/NFarticles.html) as a major current awareness resource. His coverage is more global in nature than any other source I've found.

Good luck,

Lee

-- Lee P. Lapin (lplapin@hotmail.com), August 29, 1998.

For an interesting look at what makes people tick, check out Influence, How and Why People Agree to Things by Robert B. Cialdini Ph.D. One of the chapters discusses the concept of Social Proof, aka herd mentality.

Because we are bombarded constantly with so much information and stimuli, we have had to learn to filter out the non-essential and extraneous information, in order to maintain our sanity. As a consequence, individuals place a high degree of reliance on the actions of others in determining a proper course of action for themselves, in any particular set of circumstances.

This social phenomenon can be beneficial, or detrimental, depending on the actions of the pack, hence the common attitude of If this is going to be such a big problem, everybody would be worried about it. Well before too long everybody will be worried about it, attitudes just need to hit critical mass. Watch out when that happens, you will have lost the chance to be prepared ahead of time. Be ahead of the herd, this will help you avoid being trampled in the stampede.

My advice, as always, is to be ready well before the time that you believe is a reasonable deadline. We have less time than we think we do. It is vital to yourself, and to your family, that you think outside of the box on this issue.

-- Uncle Deedah (oncebitten@twiceshy.com), August 29, 1998.