I was just wondering if anyone had seen the article by Dick Mills in Westergaard 2000 (Aug. 14). The title is "Another Myth, A Black Grid Can't Be Restarted." I really know nothing about the power grid and how it all really works. Would appreciate input from those "in the know" about y2k electricity issues on what you think of this article and how accurate Mr. Mill's assessment is. Article can be found at http://www.y2ktimebomb.com/PP/RC/dm9832.htm Thanks!

-- Anonymous, August 14, 1998

Answers

I am not a power expert, but the following exerpt from the May 1996 issue of IEEE POWER ENGINEERING REVIEW seems to point out some interesting things...

. The author, John G. Kappenman, is in charge of Transmission Power Engineering at Minnesota Power, Duluth, Minnesota

This article appeared in the May 1996 issue. *******************************************

For example, Solar Cycle 22 (the current 11-year sunspot cycle) which is now drawing to a close, produced not only above-average but historic geomagnetic storm activity. As a consequence, above-average impacts to system reliability occurred due to storms, with the most notable instance resulting in a large area blackout. Also, several well documented cases convincingly established that large, expensive transformers could be damaged by exposure to Geomagnetically Induced Currents (GIC) that are produced by storms. Further, statistical evidence is showing that transformers are failing at an above-average rate in areas of the United States that are particularly prone to geomagnetic disturbances, resulting in well-above-average replacement costs that could measure in total into hundreds of millions of dollars in costs to the industry. If that's not enough, experience teaches us that the odd numbered Solar Cycles (Cycle 23 in this case, which is in the process of initiating) have always been more severe than the even numbered cycle that they follow. . . .

Power System Reliability Threat

Threats to power system integrity are no longer just academic speculation with the events that unfolded during the Great Geomagnetic Storm of March 13, 1989. In fact, the entire Hydro Quebec system was plunged into a blackout triggered by GIC caused voltage collapse and equipment malfunction. The impact of this particular storm was simultaneously felt over the entire North American continent with most of Hydro Quebecs neighboring systems in the US coming uncomfortably close to experiencing the same sort of voltage collapse/cascading outage scenario. . . .

Wide area blackouts are the nightmare scenario of our industry and geomagnetic storms that span large regions of the network impose a unique and previously unanticipated threat to interconnected system operation. . . .

GIC Caused Transformer Failures? ( or Fried Green Transformers)

During the same March 1989 storm, several incidents of transformer heating problems were reported as well. The most significant failure occurred at a GSU (generation step-up) transformer at a nuclear plant in New Jersey in which a 1,200 MVA, 500kV bank was damaged beyond repair. . . .

Direct long-term evidence of GIC-caused transformer problems does not exist, simply because utilities had not done any long-term monitoring of GIC exposure.

http://www.mpelectric.com/storms/index.htm

R.A. Mann

-- Anonymous, August 14, 1998

While it may be true under certain circumstances that a black grid can be re-started (and in this I gladly defer to Mr. Mills' expertise),it is highly unlikely that these circumstances will obtain during a Y2k-induced blackout. For example, will the electrical grid authorities be able to coordinate such a delicate operation? If they can't monitor conditions on the grid or communicate because of telephone service interruption, they won't. If there are critical mechanisms that won't work because of embedded system failures -- and for which there are no work-arounds -- they won't. If key people can't get to work because of transportation system failures, they won't. If staff won't work because the banking system has collapsed, and they won't be paid, they won't.

All of this has been adequately addressed a thousand times on this and other forums and websites. Mr. Mills should know better by now than to ignore these vital aspects of the inevitable Y2k catastrophe. By so doing, he presents a distorted view of the problems which he seems to addresses. Thus, he runs the risk of lulling the public into a false sense of safety, which may prevent them from preparing for the worst. Lives are thus placed at risk.

Rick Cowles has a much better grasp of the overall threat. I applaud his efforts to enlighten us when no one else was even aware of these issues.

HDK

-- Anonymous, August 15, 1998

Dick Mills' ideas about restarting the power grid appear to be based on at least one huge assumption: that the power plants will be in working order, and simply have to be restarted. Since much of the concern about embedded systems involves not just problems with power distribution, but the functionality of the actual generating stations, I am still planning to buy firewood. Maybe manual work-arounds really could allow the plants to run, but I'm not convinced.

-- Anonymous, August 15, 1998

I too wonder if Mr. Mills really understands the y2k problem in its totality. As already mentioned, there will be other non-utility factors that will work against a successful work around.

The really big factor to me is the embedded chip problem. When and if they locate the chips that need replacing, who will make them, if there is no power to make them? How long would it take to make enough for all 8000 plants? And then there is fuel that has to be transported by trains that are non-compliant.

I refuse to put my life in the hands of Mr. Mills optimistic viewpoint no matter how much I would like to. Lives are at stake here. I will err on the side of prudence. BTW, my generator has been backordered at Northern for a month. A word to the wise.

-- Anonymous, August 15, 1998

I am a SCADA Tech for a major electical Utility in the U.S. I have been all over our system asking Y2k questions. You would be very pleased with the coordinated effort that is being put into Y2k. We have combined Thermal Hydro and Nuke source power. Our Hydro is very old and has EMS controls for pond level and such yet it is perfectly capable of being run manually and the operators at those plants typically have a whole lot of seniority thus experience.Many of our Steam plants are pnumatic(Manual) and have "Black Start" capability through their Jet Turbine peakers. Our Rtu's all passed Y2k testing. Our Cyber for the EMS system needed $10,000 dollars worth of software and tested good on our testbed, online testing will begin soon. The EMS system that ties the Switching centers to the Dispatch center is compliant with the exception of some logging which will be fixed and is not "Mission Critical" As far as all the "What if's???" I have read the first draft of our contengency plan and we will have a plan for all the "what if's" With Trigger Dates based on progress milestones to put them into action. Regards Esteban http://home1.gte.net/esteban/index.htm

-- Anonymous, August 15, 1998