If the grid goes down because of Y2K, then how in the world is it going to get going until the reasons it went down are fixed? How are they going to get fixed without power? Are programmers going to stay there and rewrite code while they and their families are starving to death? Are folks in such denial they just can't concede the power will be out for a very long time?

-- Anonymous, August 07, 1998

Answers

I have been asking this same question for three months now and have yet to receive an answer that makes one bit of sense. Good question. Deserves a good answer. Anyone?

-- Anonymous, September 18, 1998

Kimberly,

Hopefully, the coders and their families won't be starving to death if they are wise enough to stockpile a few months worth of food and supplies in advance. I think there will be a strong incentive for them to stay on the jobs and fix the system. Sure, they could retreat into the hills and try to be self-reliant, but not many people would really want to do that if they can avoid it. And hopefully, enough will be self-sacrificing. It's a tough decision to make. Would you really head for the hills and hope that you have enough provisions and are a skilled enough farmer to eke out a subsitance level of living, especially when you realize that your decision to turn and run would guarantee that the grid would stay down and contribute to millions of deaths? Maybe those cowards who run and hide can live, but how would they live with themselves? More importantly, I doubt they would have a long life expectancy if any one discovers that they were programers who went AWOL from the electric company and were trying to save their skins while their countrymen died. Yes, they may have guns to defend themselves, but there will be lots of other citizens with guns who will want to kill them if they view them as responsible for the collapse of the grid and the nation.

A more relevant question is this: If the power grid goes down because of some faulty embedded chips, will the utilities be able to get new chips? Will enough of the grid be able to recover to supply the chip factories with electricity to make new chips?

-- Anonymous, September 20, 1998

Hi Kimberly, your question is one people have been asking about in regards to government agencies and big businesses, too. In essence, the query goes, "If a fix can't be done in the year-plus time remaining, what makes anyone think the repairs after failure will be accomplished in a few days or weeks?" I can't answer you about the specifics of the electrical industry, but I can give some insights (from information systems and historical perspectives) into why the fix rate will be accelerated after 1/1/2000.

First, after 1/1/2000 most of what is broken will be apparent. The laborious search to separate and define what is good from what is not will, for all practical purposes, be over. From a computer systems standpoint, it's easier to pinpoint and repair problems after they have occurred. Also, there are "workarounds" which can be put in place, depending on which systems fail.

Second, from the historical standpoint, a crisis engenders three responses. The eight hour day, weekends off system is replaced by 24 hour shifts. Those working those shifts, at all levels, gear up to maximum effort with little or no "lazy lunch hours", etc. And the bureaucratic red tape is thrown out the window. For instance, if getting a replacement part for the electrical industry would presently take months (getting disbursement sign offs and approval, advertising for bids, da da, da da..) it might only take days during a crisis. Scenario: Engineer on site tells the National Guard Major they need such and such a piece of equipment. The Major orders a couple of his soldiers to take the diesel truck and as much gas as they need, drive to such and such a place in such and such a state and come back with the equipment. Depending on the severity of the emergency, the orders might also include, "we'll pay the ticket if you get stopped for speeding", or "show this letter to any police who might stop you and they'll give you an escort" or "shoot anyone who tries to stop you." It's not nice to contemplate a crisis bad enough for that last to apply, but I wrote it to show that the speed of repairs in a crisis is directly proportional to the severity of said crisis.

Finally, even with the escalation of repairs due to the above reasons, it's admittedly still possible for some of the problems to take months or longer to overcome. The problem of fixes post-Y2K is the same problem pre-Y2K: no one knows exactly what will break down in the world or what ripple effects those breakdowns will cause. Even those businesses who have been working for ten years and are compliant have one thing in common - they admit they may not have "caught" everything, and that some problems are beyond their control. It's a crap shoot. We may get lucky. We may not. Or something in between. Those with the necessary skill sets may stay on the job and do heroic work. They may opt to stay home and protect their families if the situation becomes dire. Or anything in between.

All we can do as individuals is to study the Y2K problems, read everything we can, act on whatever preparations seem to be the wisest to protect our families and which are within our capabilities, and try to make others aware of the need to study the problem for themselves. Best wishes to you.

-- Anonymous, September 20, 1998