Should I be preparing or do i just wait and see for a while?greenspun.com : LUSENET : TimeBomb 2000 (Y2000) : One Thread
I bought "Time Bomb 2000" back in Jan. but didn't get beyond reading the preface. I knew there was a problem but like everyone else I figured that it would be solved in time. Then a few months later I started following Yardeni's views on this issue...Lately, I've been keeping a daily check of the media coverge of this problem through the y2knews website. What I have been reading does not reassure me at all and yet I have done nothing by way of preparation. I have spoken about the problem with my family. My father and sister think I'm being really stupid. Sometimes, I feel the same way too...all this survivalist talk is new to me...What prevents me from making a decision is that a lot of the information being disseminated is speculative in nature...But i do believe that there will be disruptions but i keep hoping that they will be of the " one week " kind. I have read most of "time bomb" now and i do believe that i must prepare but something still holds me from doing so. Once I start stocking food and stuff, I really can't go back to watching from a distance. I hope nothing happens and I get to donate the stuff to a food bank. To prepare would entail enormous emotional investment and somehow i can't believe I should care when everyone around me seems so unconcerned....It's all so scary, like knowing beforehand that u will soon be part of this huge disaster movie, and yet I can't make the jump to doing something. Sometimes, I wish I never knew. I can't go back to living in bliss and so I find myself oscillating on this issue. Since in the end we'll only know when we get there, I believe that I must start to prepare. I'd greatly appreciate it if someone could suggest a few good websites dealing with y2k preparation. Looking for good sound advice and no "Jesus loves me" propaganda . I am a non practising Hindu , so according to those folks I'm going to burn in hell anyways.
Also any suggestions on which areas of the country would be better suited to getting through the whole mess that might ensue, come 2000.
-- Gautam Chaudhary (email@example.com), June 27, 1998
Nice post. I think it sums up where a lot of people are at. With regards to your first query:
this site will definately get you started.
As for your second part, I'm in the swamp of the country, (Florida), Heat, drought, fire, overcrowding, and lots of nuclear dependency for power. I looked at a property, south of Seattle. Cool, mountains, water, mild temps. I didn't buy the farm, because it was in a valley and there were signs of flooding in the past. A voice inside reminded me that when things get tough, you head for the hills. I am approaching this from the perspective of "where would I want to have lived as if it were a hundred years ago". A move for our family is imminent, I just feel way behind on my preparations. I have been sitting back watching this y2k thing for about two years. I have just started to act on what seems very apparent to me now. Public awareness is gaining momentum. I think when summer is over, the countdown will start. I think this is one of those times fate deals when the present is stable, everything is readily available, and money is flowing freely...an ironic setup for an equal yet totally OPPOSITE future. Everything seems to flow towards balance. 7 years of feast, 7 years of famine. The biggest irony to me is, the very tool that has given man the sense of being a g-d, is what will lead to a major setback in evolution. A fitting punishment for such arrogance. I believe the available reward is in knowing and preparing. Noah got ridiculed for building his ark, but we all know the rest of that story. I am not a religious person, but rather aware of a lot of different beliefs. It's amazing how certain principals surface in so many different cultures. I believe time will start to accelerate very soon, so bottom line...its no time to dawdle.
-- lou (firstname.lastname@example.org), June 28, 1998.
You snooze, you lose! It really doesn't matter if Y2K is a reality or a possibility! You should always be prepared for an emergency. There are many kinds of emergency situations that could afflict you. You can't lay awake worrying about something that you are already prepared for! As far as donating to a food bank if nothing happens, that would be a fine jesture, but you should always have something on hand to get you through hard times. Your concerns should be basic survival and not what others around you think! And if Y2K does pan out to be a terrible thing, I bet your family will praise you for being so wise!
-- Barb-Douglas (email@example.com), June 28, 1998.
You snooze, you lose. I like that......it sums things up.
Preparation takes a long time. Few of us have the money to write out a check for everything we might need. It's a question of accumulating things over a period of time, so that we have them when needed.
What will be your needs? Water? Food? Heat? Protection from people out to strip you of anything you have because they are hungry (and the restraints of police forces are missing)? That much you have to sit down and determine for yourself.
Then, act. You don't have to buy a year's food today. You have to begin to lay in supplies, now, before any panic hits. I'll recommend that you begin your web searches at the Cassandra Project
and Noah's Ark
with Noah's Ark providing really good information on water and food. Cassandra project uses the FEMA food list, which is pretty basic.
-- Rocky Knolls (firstname.lastname@example.org), June 28, 1998.
I live in the storm-ravaged midwest. There have been many power outages around here in the past few weeks. I sleep better at night knowing I am prepared. Y2K or not.....BE PREPARED!!!!!
-- Annie (email@example.com), June 29, 1998.
I've been looking over a lot of the yk2 sites, and reading quite a lot about it. I was a bit alarmed at first at the magnitude of the problem, but after that initial alarm subsided I was able to look at the issue rationaly.
You wrote: >Then a few months later I started following Yardeni's views on this >issue...Lately, I've been keeping a daily check of the media coverge >of this problem >through the y2knews website. What I have been reading does not >reassure me at all >and yet I have done nothing by way of preparation. I have spoken >about the >problem with my family. My father and sister think I'm being really >stupid. >Sometimes, I feel the same way too...all this survivalist talk is new >to me...What >prevents me from making a decision is that a lot of the information >being >disseminated is speculative in nature...But i do believe that there >will be disruptions >but i keep hoping that they will be of the " one week " kind
Yes, the majority of the doom and gloom predictions are speculative, and coming from an clouded point of view. The neysayers who say there is no proof that that the problem can be dealt with, should also consider, that there's no proof it can't be dealt with. OK, so the problem definately won't be entirely fixed by January 2000. Don't underestimate, and think that there are not plans to deal with this. I sincerely doubt that everything is going to fall apart. Don't rule out human ingenuity, problems will be dealt with as they come up. If the government has to, they will put every employee they have to work, shuffling papers, printing out checks, refiguring birth dates that have been changed by the buggy computers, better get out those calculators, lol. Don't underestimate the engenuity of computer programers, figuring out solutions as problems happen. I guaranty you, every last man will be onto this thing, after all, they have people they care about too, and families, they're not just gonna let this ship sink. Let's have a little faith in human kind here, our accomplishments are nothing to sneeze at.
As far as blackouts, ok, if the power goes down for a day or so, people will make it. Remember the great New York blackout? People wern't out rioting them, they were home making babies. A baby boom was the "horrible" result of the black out, nothing else major. Besides, power companies are working hard to find the non-compliant embeded systems. And if problems arise, manual overide can be implemented on many of the power centers.
You wrote: >It's >all so scary, like knowing beforehand that u will soon be part of >this huge disaster >movie, and yet I can't make the jump to doing something. Sometimes, I >wish I never >knew. I can't go back to living in bliss and so I find myself >oscillating on this issue.
I really hate to hear that this is scaring people, y2k has been way overblown. I been on this thing for 3 weeks now, I'm convinced it's much to do about nothin'. Yeah, it's a probem, and it should of been taken care of way earlier, but I think it will be dealt with, and life will continue as usual. A few interesting stories might come out the whole ordeal, but the things we learn from all this might be very valuable later on.
Some people have really become obsesses with the y2k, bordering on irrationality. When you alienate yourself from your family (I don't mean you), that's a sign you've gone too far in your thinking. I'm going on posts I've read at discusion groups and newsgroups, this is causing a real rift between some husbands and wifes ect....
Y2k will pass with a few inconveniances, and life will continue. And the problems of real life will continue as well, maybe that's what some people are trying to get away from, with these Doomsday theories.
Well, I'm pretty much done with the the subject of y2k, and am moving on. I'm not judging anyone's beliefs on the matter, I just hope that everyone will try their best to look at this thing with a rational viewpoint, and not go running scared just because something bad "might" happen. When y2k passes, I guess all the "Phrophets of Doom" will have to find something else to latch onto.
BTW, the people that project these disasterous fates onto society, make me really question their motives. It realy seems like they are grinning through their teeth while making these predictions, like they think we all deserve this, as punishment or something. Beware the motives of whoever you listen to. Also consider their mindset.
Fortunately, the people working on the y2k problem are not wallowing in Doom and gloom, if they were, then we'd all be sunk. I'm glad they havn't deemed the situation hopeless.
BTW, I think greed (which caused the y2k problem), will be the solution to the problem. Do you really think the rich old men :) that own the banks, are going to let their bank go under just because of a computer bug? Hell no! They are gonna be cracking that whip untill this thing is seen through. Same goes for power companies, many are funded by private investors, the vested interest of brokers, stockholders, shareholders, are not gonna let their money machine bite the dust, Believe me, greed will save us this time.
-- John Miller (firstname.lastname@example.org), July 01, 1998.
John, I love your answer.
Effectively, you said, "I've 3 weeks experience in looking at the Y2K problem, and *I'm* convinced that it will be nothing. Therefore, don't prepare. Don't take any steps to protect yourself and your family from what you believe will happen."
If you want to believe in the tooth fairy and put on a happy face, that's all right with me. But, consider this:
a) If I adocate a course of preparation and nothing happens (you're right) then the person preparing has stockpiled food and other items that are needed in emergency situations. A prudent course of action then would be to rotate food stock, but preserve the pile. Some people would simply give it away. What's lost? Time spent planning, a little money (not much if you eat the food).
b) If you advocate a course of ignoring the problem and it isn't a blip (I'm right) then you-----and everyone you convince that preparation isn't needed-----can be in deep trouble. How deep depends, of course on where you live and how severe disruption will be.
c) Note that I haven't mentioned the really ugly situations here, the survialist scenarios, only moderate problems.
I agree that few people need to concern themselves with a 'blip.' However, the initial poster wasn't asking about the blip situation. He was concerned that he needed to make preparations for something worse. Your decision is that 'it's nothing,' based on 3 weeks of looking. Looking at what-----everything I read tells me there will be a problem? I would suspect that your reading is based on "I don't want it to happen, so it won't happen. That's called denial, and it's one of the early stages of dealing with the problem. Gautam didn't ask to be inflicted with your disease, he wanted help and support.
-- Rocky Knolls (email@example.com), July 01, 1998.
I wanted to respond briefly to John Miller's post above. I am in the crowd who is taking Y2K very seriously indeed, including selling my house, quitting my very excellent job in an urban center to take a position in a more rural part of the country, and setting up a much more self-sufficient living arrangement "on the land".
The main trigger point for me was the statistics, gathered over 30 years of software development, that show that well over 50% of all software projects are late, usually by a significant margin. Now, just exactly what are various companies and government agencies doing to better those statistics? My research shows that the answer is, Nothing. If anything, they still are not taking this seriously enough, not realizing that it literally means the life or death of their business/agency. Unfortunately, a lot of our lives are intermingled with the success or failure of their enterprises.
The fact that our major trading partners (Japan, Europe, the rest of Asia) are lagging our efforts by a wide margin suggests to me that, as bad as I think the failures will be here, they will be considerably worse in those countries. Our economy cannot survive in its present form without those trading partners.
I can certainly live with all of the preparations I have made. My wife and I have tried to make sure that our decisions will end in a net benefit for our family, whether anything catastrophic happens or not. But frankly, I think the perspective that this is "no big deal" is enormously naive and flies in the face of a massive amount of evidence to the contrary. The only solace available--indeed, the only solace held out by Mr. Miller--is that "we just don't know". I can't prescribe action for anybody else, but for me and my family that is just not enough.
I'm a software engineer with a lot of formal training in statistics and logic and a lot of hands-on experience in executing complex software projects. "They" keep saying they will have it fixed on time. But the numbers say otherwise.
-- Franklin Journier (firstname.lastname@example.org), July 01, 1998.
If you were standing in front of a freight train would you jump out of the way, or would you stand there and let it hit you? I can't believe the people that look at Y2K as being a trivial little problem, we are living in a microwave society, who want to do what we want to do, HELLO!! My family thinks we're crazy, they don't even know the least of what's going on in our heads, like should we stay in this city or leave or WHAT!! What I do know is we have taken at least the responsibility of discussing this with family, giving them reports and audio tapes of the problem, we figure we'll prepare with food first, get some extra for our unbelieving family who always remind us of how we used to live without power before, we can do it again! Basically most people we talk to say "They will fix it", well I want to know, WHO are THEY!!???? Any answers to that one? If you think it is the Government, and you are going to depend on them to take care of you and your family, well good luck, that just isn't in my plans.
-- Billie Pattschull (email@example.com), July 01, 1998.
I would love to think that I am overreacting to Y2K, and that I am just having some kind of mental aberration, such as a big mid-life crisis. But I am past the hiccough period of doubting. It is happening, and yet 99.999 percent of the people around me are in deepest denial. I have all but given up talking to anyone else about it. Basically, if anyone gets on to the subject with me now I tell them to but Ed and Jennifer Yourdan's book, "Time Bomb 2000" and read it. Then get back to me; otherwise don't waste my time. If I buy others the book, they don't read it fully and it is a waste of my money and energy... I am busy doing everything I can to prepare a safe retreat for my family, and they think I have flipped. All I can do is keep my head down and focus on what I think is best for us. Hopefully they will see what is happening in time to join me. If Y2K eventually turns out to be nothing but a fizzle, at least my wife and two kids will be safe. I can live with that, even though we have separated. Conversely, if Y2K turns out to be as bad as I fear it could be -- and if I had done nothing -- my wife and kids would surely die, and I might have been able to save them... that I could never live with. The whole thing is a negative equation: what are the consequences?
-- David_Harvey@mercantilemutual.com.au (firstname.lastname@example.org), July 02, 1998.
I couldn't resist answering John.
Three weeks and you've got Y2K figured out. Congratulations. I hope you have enough humility to keep reading and post another message 3 weeks from now.
My friends know I don't suffer fools well, so I'll sign off. I just hope for your family's sake that you keep reading.
(I can't help myself...) John, some of the folks that write about Y2K are idiots and it is self-evident. But, look at the problem and not the writers. Learn what the Y2K problem really is and you'll see it from a whole different perspective. Anyone who thinks that Y2K is no big deal simply does not understand the problem. And, once you understand the problem you'll enter into another phase of denial. Once you work through that one you'll enter another, and another. Finally, you start preparing.
Get back to us when you get there. :) We've all been through it.
-- Pastor Chris (email@example.com), July 02, 1998.
What I don't understand is how anyone can read "press clippings" every day, see what is going on around the world with Y2K, and not believe there is a problem....or read North's comments and follow his links and believe there is not a problem. A year ago, maybe...but not now! There is too much evidence. I think John is trying to stir up trouble. These people show up now and then on the Y2K forums. :)
-- Annie (firstname.lastname@example.org), July 02, 1998.
Yes, you're right, they do. Most of the time I want to shake some sense into them. Lost cause, really. Pastor Chris is right. If he's real and if he lurks for a few more weeks, he may decide it's real. (Actually, I thought I was rather laid back in my post above.)
I guess I get upset when I read articles and posts they try to talk people out of preparation. Sort of like, "throw away your life jacket, I believe we'll miss the iceberg." Advising others to endanger their families simply isn't too smart.
Did you see that Sen. Bennett says that it's too early to prepare by stocking up? By the time he decides it's time, Waltons will have a 3 year back order list, there won't be a generator left on the shelves, and the market will have begun to crash. Guess he needs a few more weeks to get his own house in order.
-- Rocky Knolls (email@example.com), July 02, 1998.
John is just learning the ropes. I too was skeptical the first two to three weeks that I began reading about this subject. In the last six weeks however, I've cached a large supply of silver, food, ammunition and am looking for a rural property in central Florida. I know the rule about "head for the hills" but not having to deal with winter conditions will save me time and money in my preperations. I too have been involved in the software industry for 14 years now. No one has ever completed a project on time or under budget. For John's sake, I would like to remind him of the comments from the CIA spokesperson on May 7. She said that they have reccommended that their employees "pay off their debts, stockpile extra cash and food, and have plenty of blankets on hand" for the year 2000. And that is just the public statement. I shudder to think what their actual internal assessment might read.
-- John Galt (firstname.lastname@example.org), July 02, 1998.
I'm definitely going to start preparations but i'm going to have to wait until the middle of August...busy with summer school right now... I think i am starting to get through with my family,though not v.far...at least they're ready to listen tome...the funny thing is that the so called "pessimists" are setting the agenda as far the y2k discussion goes....The deafening roar of silence on the other side is worrying...I can't believe that so many companies are ready to push it so close to the deadline...they ought to have finished testing by the end of this year...Also, most articles trying to tell you that everything's going to be hunky-dory don't have much hope to offer...no facts, just rhetoric....but i do have a problem with gary north in that he is using the whole y2k affair to vent his frustrations against the world, the fractional banking system etc...Also if things get as bad as he is suggesting , what would be the point in living...better off dead and please don't flame me regarding this...if all the people left behind die and the whole infrastructure collapses, how long would it take to rebuild? who would do it? so basically after the demise of thae nation state ( which more than anything, seems to be North's pet cause), what kind of instituttons would arise? his vision of the future resembles the dark ages and i'm not interested in going there...i don't know what will happen and neither does he or anyone else....better to be where you are and try to help your neighbours and friends..i am obviously hoping that everything won't fall apart... a severe recession, that i can live with and right now, that seems to be more than we could wish for.
-- Gautam (email@example.com), July 02, 1998.
Do you realize that most of the world lives now in the same condition that we may face after y2k. What gives us the guarantee that we will continue to live in our posh lifestyle. Our humanist views is what got us here in the first place.
-- Joe Stout (firstname.lastname@example.org), July 02, 1998.
That's a valid point and for those people y2k will mean nothing....it's not like i haven't seen poverty...i have lived most of my life in India...and oftentimes, driving by the slums, the people sleeping on the pavements, i have wondered how they manage to endure what to me seems a fate worse than death...it's all too confusing...maybe most people, including the Wall street economists other than Yardeni, don't want to look at y2k is that it does sometimes seem to be a all-or nothing situation...if things are going to get bad, then maybe now's also the right time to go enjoy yourself...not much cause for celebration down the road. this whole thing just wears me down. we live in interesting times, much too interesting for me.
-- Gautam (email@example.com), July 02, 1998.
There are many stages in the acceptance of y2k. The first phase of y2k will probably be chaos. After that think in terms of rebuilding. We live the fantasy of earlier times, when things were much simpler, thru the movies and books. The difference now is we are going to get to experience it for real. Try to change your mindset.
-- Joe Stout (firstname.lastname@example.org), July 02, 1998.
Gary North scares a lot of people. I think he even scares himself. Look at it this way: he's at one end of the spectrum, the guy who thinks it isn't a problem is at the other. The two sort of bound the problem well. Your job is to decide where, in between, you believe the real world will be.
North does maintain several 'topical' sites, where a lurker can learn a lot about power generation, non-hybrid gardening, tools, and other things. A lot of good information, but you have to pick your way through it. Take what you want & leave the rest. Stay with it, and you'll learn a lot.
I understand the way you feel about not wanting the world to be as bad as North indicates it will be. That's part of the mental preparations for this --- accepting that it could be that bad, hoping that it won't. If it is that bad we will have lost something.....and we will grieve for it. A lot of dreams and plans and hopes will be crushed, a lot of lives will be greatly changed.
But, you know, I can remember my grandfather's cattle ranch on the Niobrara River in Nebraska. No electricity. Lamps were kerosene. Wood heat. Outhouse, hand pump for water. Ice was sawed from the river, stored in caves, and covered with straw to insulate it. We had home made ice cream in August. It was a good place to be.
Maybe that's the world we'll return to.
-- Rocky Knolls (email@example.com), July 02, 1998.