I'm now hearing talk about individual utilities disconnecting from the grid to avoid the cascade effect of the grid going down. Assuming the the individual plants are 2000 compliant and are able to serve their perspective areas, I have these questions.

Is the a reasonable/possible solution?

Are there reprocussions related to reconnecting the grid later?

In the opinion of those who read this message, is this a possible solution that will avoid the chaos of the grid going down or are we grabbing for straws?

What are the odds such a solution could work?

-- Anonymous, June 26, 1998

Answers

Good questions...I don't know the answers, but tow of us from the Rogue Valley Y2K Task Force will be meeting with the head of the City of Ashland's electric utility this coming Wednesday, July 1, and we will ask.

Anyone else have any questions to go on our list?

-Wayne Schumacher and Edward M. Alpern, Ashland, Oregon

-- Anonymous, June 29, 1998

Ask what they are doing to allow them to re-start their generators without power from neighboring plants...

-- Anonymous, June 30, 1998

Yes it is possible for power sources to disconnect from the national grid. This would allow power for the area around the source plant while preventing blacked out areas from draining their power. The best power provider to be hooked to is hydroelectric.

-- Anonymous, July 05, 1998

The City of Ashland has some small hydro generation, but needs to get most of its power from the Bonneville Power Administration Power Grid. So, the option for many utilities such as Ashland, is limited in disconnecting from the grid. Most of the small utilities do not operate their own load control areas and so would have a hard time maintaning frequency and voltage control (and following load) if they disconnect from the grid. Only a few large utilities that operate their own laod control areas can consider disconnecting from the grid. Even these utilities, if they have large shares of distant jointly owned power plants (fairly typical) might have problems maintaining separation from the grid for a long (say one-week) period of time.

Bob Schneider VP D. Hittle & Associates, Inc.

-- Anonymous, July 10, 1998

If power companies are going to disconnect themselves from the grid they would have to do it before January 1st because if they wait till then, the grid collapsing could drag them down also. But, this would be difficult to do because it would mean cutting ties to the grid when everything is working OK. This could bring lawsuits and government regulatory hassles. I don't think executives have the fortitude to do what seems to be right thing, but could cause major headaches if it is not popular. It would be easier for them to let the grid crash and then pick up the pieces afterward. Also, if utilities were to disconnect from the grid, I think there would be pressure brought to bear on the surviving utilities to share their power with areas that had none, and then all of the country would still have outages, if only temporary ones. The bottom line is that the utilities have got to get their electrical production and delivery systems fixed or we all are in a world of hurt.

-- Anonymous, July 20, 1998

This is a comment on Kelly Horn's post to the thread. As someone who has been an electric utility system planner, the people who look at transmission and substation expansion-which is usually driven by reliability criteria, and as someone who helped convert a utility from a non-generating utilty to one that had its own generation including exploring whether to establish its own load control area or remain part of another utility's load control area; I would like to say that I don't think the y2k problem is going to result in a complete blackout on new years day. If little is done, I think some parts of the US (and other countries) may have localized outages, but nothing to equal the famous east coast blackout.

Because of this belief (that is based on 25+ years experience as a power plant/transmission planning & design engineer for utilities) I think that your comments implying that all utilities "connected to the grid" will be dragged down to darkness is not correct.

I have been working and talking to a number of utilities that are addressing embedded chip y2k issues and have modified their energy management, control and dispatching computer systems (EMS & SCADA). I feel that there could be some problems with y2k outages, but that they will be isloated and geographically dispursed and not nearly as widespread as some have indicated. Most utilities I know of (or their consulting engineers) are taking steps on y2k issues. I think electric utilities have lagged behind certain industries (oil refineries especially; but are ahead of other industries). Most of the electric utilities I know prioritized billing and finacial computer systems first, then EMS/SCADA, then PC's, then embedded chip (wires & facilities). I personally don't agree with the priority, but they seem to be making progress.

I am working with one utility right now on embedded chip y2k compliance in its substation and transmission line and have found some y2k non-compliant equipment, but nothing that would disrupt the flow of electricity. The result for this client is going to be some equipment upgrades next year for just two of a few y2k non-compliant pieces of equipment. The other non-y2k compliant equipment is non-compliant in "optional features" that are not used at this facility. We are likely going to put some warning lables on them so that nobody will try to use those features in the future. The features that are being used work.

I think that y2k is a serious issue as power outages cause (even isolated ones in just a few areas) real problems. I think that gently pushing utilities to address their y2k embedded chip compliance is a important task, but I don't see either utilities refusing to act or widespread blackouts happening.

Bob Schneider

-- Anonymous, July 25, 1998

P.S. to Kelly Horn

What I would like to also add, is that for a utility within the load control area of another utility (i.e. Ashland within the Bonneville Power Administration's load control area) "disconnecting from the grid" and trying to operate their own "island" is not an easily acheivable option, and as stated in in other post, probably not worth even trying unless there are some real unusual conditions.

Bob Schneider

-- Anonymous, July 25, 1998

Many of the experts in the electrical power field have made reassuring statements about the the power grid not having serious problems after 01/01/2000, including saying that power outages would not be widespread. I can't help but think that the residents of an area that is without power are going to think that this is a BIG problem, especially if that area is a major city where criminal elements are likely to use the darkness to rob, steal, loot, riot, etc. How many parts of the country having these problems are an acceptable number? I believe that unless major preparations are made to prevent power problems or, failing that, that the likely results of power outages are prepaired for, the failure of computers to read dates correctly will be the least of our problems.

-- Anonymous, August 03, 1998

Regarding Mr. Horn's concerns, here is an interesting pull from an August 2 article in the Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel:

http://www.jsonline.com/news/0802y2k.stm.

The story says that because of embedded chip concerns at the Madison-based Alliant Utilities, all employees will be called to the plant on New Year's Eve 1999, just in case of problems.

"You're never going to be 100% sure about this," says David Helbach, director of public affairs at the utility. "We may have to run our system manually that night."

To me, this says two things. First, utilities are not sitting on thier hands on this one. Second, thier hands can actually do something about it. If it is true that there are manual workarounds, as the story suggests, then there is a human equation that can work to minimize the impact of y2k problems.

To borrow of phrase from former NASA Flight Director Gene Krantz during the Apollo 13 crisis, "Let's work the problem, fellas. Let's not make it worse by guessing." Insert the word "panic" if you'd like.

-- Anonymous, August 04, 1998