Who is Gary North? What are his credintials? I was reading his webpage, and he offers no information about himself personaly, that I can see. I'm inclined to be cautious about accepting ideas from someone I can't verify, obviously. The info on the webpage is interesting though, but, I think it's a bit from an alarmist point of view. Although, I do see the y2k (blech, how trendy!) problem as a serious matter, even maybe a possible disaster.

-- John Miller (nocturnus6@usa.net), June 26, 1998

Answers

Good question. I'll be waiting for knowledgeable individuals to post their answers. It's always good to know as much about a source's personal motivations and interests as possible when considering things of this magnitude. The only bit of information on his bio so far that I've been able to figure out is he must have a PhD in History and he spends a lot of time doing his homework. What bothers me is that it seems because he is not a programmer, merely a historian, that people should discount his predictions. Personally, I think back to World Civ class in college and recall my professor and what he taught us about the intrinsic ties economic factors and government have. And the major impact even the smallest of changes can have on our culture. For instance the inability to pay your army can often result in massive empires falling--Rome. Or something as simple as changing the way you plant your garden can sometimes result in masssive population growth and emergence from the Dark Ages. The point being to consider his credentials by all means. I think everyone, including North, would prefer to be able to say in mid 2000 to himself and others, "Now see there, that wasn't so bad was it?"

-- Lisa Caldwll (ldward@aol.com), June 26, 1998.

After proofing the above answer, I realized I'd typed my e-mail address wrong (as well as some other typing errors) Hey Ed, how about a spell checker on this puppy? . If you want to send email directily too me be sure and put the "1" after ldward, as in ldward1@aol.com

Oops!

-- Lisa Caldwell (ldward1@aol.com), June 26, 1998.

John,

Go to one of the search engines and check what you find on the web- I like InFind at http://www.inference.com/infind/. Search "Gary North" (in quotes, so it's searched as a phrase) and see what you get. For more opinions you can check the usegroups by searching DejaNews- I usually go there from HotBot (http://www.hotbot.com). I bet you'll find more than you want to know.

Gary North is among other things an investment advisor who publishes an investment letter called _The Remnant Review_. He's been at it for a while- he made a good call on cell phone licences several years ago and put away a good deal of $ for himself and subscribers who listened. He's also made some mistakes along the way, as have all of us here. He's really stuck his neck out on the y2k (ok, year 2000 computing crisis, as Congress calls it) thing. If he is an alarmist so are a good number of other people with good credentials. It's impossible to know at this point who's right. 'Best guess' is as good as you can hope for, so be prepared to settle for that.

North does have a PhD in history, and he does do his homework. The y2k thing could be looked at as a sort of ultimate final exam... for him and everyone else.

You are oh so right to choose your "experts" carefully. And to do your own homework, and take responsibility for your own decisions. The charlatans and profiteers are beginning to emerge (or are out in force, depending on your point of view). There are lots of agendas in play already and the game is just now getting started. Look for things to get MORE confusing, not less.

North is opinionated and pretty outspoken sometimes. But he cites his sources on the web and you can draw your own conclusions from reading the same source material he did. That's as much as you can ask for and more than you get from most. He'll be shutting down the 'Forums' he has up on the web at the end of this month, BTW. So read them while you can.

I am not a subscriber of his though I do read a couple of other investment letters. Thus I'm on his mailing list, and get all his "buy me" fliers. My interests are in different areas from most of the things he covers and that's why I haven't subscribed to his publication.

Regards,

LPL

-- Lee P. Lapin (lplapin@hotmail.com), June 26, 1998.

Gary North -- interesting fellow. If we]re talking about the same guy, he has been around since the late 1970s, when he was part of the Howard Ruff/Harry Browne end-of-the-econonomic-world-as-we-know-it crowd. His politics and his religousity aren't mine, but his site is the one of the best on the Web for y2k news. I just filter out the rhetoric.

-- J.D. Clark (yankeejdc@aol.com), June 26, 1998.

Good point, Lisa, when you say, "What bothers me is that it seems because he is not a programmer, merely a historian, that people should discount his predictions."

As anyone who's awareness has advanced to the point where they're attending this (or Dr North's) forum, we understand that CDC (Century Date Change, as the political wonks call it) is NOT an IT or technical problem, but a socio-economic concern of the highest order. Fact is, it's such a stupid, simple, easy-to-grasp issue, that anyone with a little imagination and a few hours of study can spin scenarios as plausible as anyone elses. It's very egalitarian in that respect.

You don't have to take anyone's word for anything. Accumulate the evidence (it's not that difficult or complicated) and draw your own conclusions. Think for yourself. Plan ahead. And keep repeating the Y2K mantra, "Hope for the best. Expect the worst."

Hal

"Facts do not cease to exist because they are ignored." --- Aldous Huxley

-- Hallyx (Hallyx@aol.com), June 26, 1998.

I must agree with JD Clark. North is the best source on the web. What will I use for a home page after he is gone? Can't we convince him to stay? We need him. Maybe now we need a page for contingency planning. That is the stage we are at now. The programmers will be out of work soon. Or is it to late for contigency planning now?

-- Jan Czarnecki (czarneck@tbaytel.net), June 26, 1998.

Clarification: North is talking about taking down his Y2K discussion and preparations forums, which are costing him about $2,000 per month. He will keep his Y2K news and comments web site.

-- Gary (ggood@aol.com), June 26, 1998.

Here's a little bit more of what I know about Gary North.

Specifically, his PhD is in "Economic History"; he has training in economics as well as history. One of his first jobs after getting his PhD was on Rep. Ron Paul's (R-TX, 1976,1978-1984,1996-current) staff in 1976. Among the reseach he did was for a bill continuing to fund the IMF (which passed by something like 415-4).

Gary is very much a member of the "Austrian" school of economics (Ludwig Von Mises and Fredrich Hayek). He's long believed that the inevitable result of our "fiat currency" system would be runaway inflation akin to Germany's in the early 1920s. Recently, he changed that view and believes that we'll experience violent deflation due to Y2K. Basically, Treasury Dept. won't be able to print the needed paper money.

Another strong influence is his strong belief in "Christian ethics". He's written several books about "Biblical Economics", and operates a small publishing company devoted to the topic. As such, there is an element of "God's judgment" ("doom" if you like) in his thinking about the future. If there is one thing that turns people off about Gary, this is it.

There is no doubt he has made quite a bit of money through smart investments. Sixty acres of land with three natural gas wells is *not* cheap no matter where you are. There is no doubt that he's quite capable of doing thorough research. You can't get a PhD unless you can do thorough research. All this talk of Gary "not being a trained programmer" is a red herring, a classic logical fallacy. I wouldn't hire him as a programmer, but he has enough grasp of the technical issues. He doesn't make up the facts on his web site, he's reseached references to technical issues. This alone makes his Y2K one of the most worthwhile.

I imagine the above makes me look like a "true believer". Actually, I'm not. It's simply a summary of what I know about him keeping my opinion out of the analysis. The basis for this is reading his newsletter and listening to some of his cassettes. The Jesuits did a reasonably good job of teaching me how to do research with an impartial mindset! :-)

Personally, I believe he's sincere in his beliefs. Some have accused him (and others) of being in it "for the money". However, if he's right, then he's out of business. There's not much use for a writer of investment newsletters in a very low, primitive divison of labor economy. If he's wrong, then he's out of business. His credibility will be utterly ruined.

I also think Gary's scenario is *plausible*; it's not totally beyond possibility, as most believe. That fact that information systems are so interconnected and that our society is so dependent upon them is my biggest concern. Y2K remediation will not be 100% complete by 01/01/00 ... period. The $6 trillion question is: "What will happen?"

For what it's worth, I'm most in agreement with Ed Yourdon. At least, his way of approaching Y2K preparation, risk managment view, is is healthier.

Take care!

-- Andrew J. Jackson (ajackson@onramp.net), June 26, 1998.

A rather thorough background on Mr. North including his Non-Y2k writings: may be found at the following web site:

A more complete analysis of Mr. North's role as the hub of the "gloom and doom brigade" is at:

GO and JUDGE for yourself where you are getting your "facts" from.

There are far better web sites for Y2k information than that of Mr. North. Peter de Jager the Founder of the Y2k Awareness movement's site at http://www.year2000.com is the most thorough but not for the Cocktail party experts. Dr. Yardeni's Y2K HOME: http://www.yardeni.com/cyber.html is also quite good. Many of North's links are but "reports of reports". Few bother to read the highly technical ones or past the link North offers into the rest of the site.

Mr. North's current web site carefully evades his very long history of controversy. Four of the leading voices in his Theological branch including the editor of his own Father-in-Laws Journal of Chalcedon Foundation have blasted North for his Y2k extremism. Charles Reuben, B.Sc.,M.A.(Mathematics) Brother Gary's FAVORITE "Real Estate Salesman in TEXAS"

-- Charles Reuben (buytexas@swbell.net), June 28, 1998.

A rather thorough background on Mr. North including his Non-Y2k writings: may be found at the following web site: http://www.serve.com/thibodep/cr/y2k.htm

A more complete analysis of Mr. North's role as the hub of the "gloom and doom brigade" is at: href:"http://www.erols.com/steve451/doom.htm

GO and JUDGE for yourself where you are getting your "facts" from.

There are far better web sites for Y2k information than that of Mr. North. Peter de Jager the Founder of the Y2k Awareness movement's site at http://www.year2000.com is the most thorough but not for the Cocktail party experts. Dr. Yardeni's Y2K HOME: http://www.yardeni.com/cyber.html is also quite good. Many of North's links are but "reports of reports". Few bother to read the highly technical ones or past the link North offers into the rest of the site.

Mr. North's current web site carefully evades his very long history of controversy. Four of the leading voices in his Theological branch including the editor of his own Father-in-Laws Journal of Chalcedon Foundation have blasted North for his Y2k extremism. Charles Reuben, B.Sc.,M.A.(Mathematics) Brother Gary's FAVORITE "Real Estate Salesman in TEXAS"

-- Charles Reuben (buytexas@swbell.net), June 28, 1998.

As others have mentioned, North has a doctorate in history, with graduate training in economics. He has published the "Remnant Review" or some such investment/economics newsletter since 1974 (I don't read it), and from all accounts he has been a doom-and-gloomer since Day One. I rather imagine his eyes lit up when he first stumbled upon Y2K a few years ago: "At last, this is it, the Big One, magnitude 9.0." Since then, he has been sounding the trumpet of doom any way he can; he recently (May 25th) was on the Art Bell late-night radio talk show for a five-hour marathon interview/Q & A period (not the most intellectually respectable of forums), and I think even the ABC Evening News did a snippet with him, the same evening they briefly featured Yourdon and Yardeni. North is a Christian fundamentalist, and, though he claims his views on Y2K are not of the apocalyptic "God's judgment" sort, it's really hard not to see a certain glee in his predictions, as though we're all about to get what we deserve. While I agree with Hamlet's assessment of human nature--"treat every man according to his deserts, and who would escape whipping?"--to see an idiotic programming convention in such terms, as North clearly does, is rather ridiculous.

That said, I must add that I find North's site invaluable--there are hundreds and hundreds of links, many to professionally written and informative articles, and all neatly categorized. I also enjoy North's introductory comments to each article excerpt--he has a Mencken-style wit at times (most ironic in a Christian fundamentalist!), and does not suffer fools (or those he sees as fools) lightly. He's excellent at puncturing pretense and exaggerated claims of Y2K progress. But be aware that he will always take the darkest possible view of any and all Y2K issues. If a situation is ambiguous--and it often is--it won't be for North: he'll say it's a clear disaster. So I suggest that you do what I typically do: read his comments for their sardonic wit, but then link through to the original article in its entirety and make up your own mind. This whole issue is filled with conflicting and unreliable data, alas.

A couple of other notes. While North is not a programmer (and neither am I), he does have a category devoted to "programmers' views." He recently carried an excellent debate among programmers regarding the dangers and chances of importing corrupted (noncompliant) data, for instance.

North has apparently retreated to the hills of Arkansas, to a place complete with natural gas wells and natural gas-powered generators. I myself have no idea how bad things might turn out to be: my current "guess-estimate," based on a few months of research, is that a severe global recession, even depression, is quite possible; but as of yet I don't tend toward apocalyptic scenarios the way North does. I'll grant that there has been some disturbing congressional testimony recently from Deputy Defense Sec. John Hamre on possible Y2K problems in radar and early warning equipment and in nuclear launch software-- Hamre is especially worried about possible Y2K problems in China and Russia, where very little Y2K work has been done to date. And I'll grant at least the possibility of massive disruptions in utility and telecommunications systems, since nobody really seems to know just how widespread and severe the "embedded system" problem will be. But if everything really were to go to hell in a handbasket, the way North obviously believes, one wonders what good it would do to take to the hills. In a desperate nation of 270 million people, many of whom own guns, there really would be no place to hide. Generator-powered lights show for a long distance in a darkened landscape; armed and desperate marauders would be on the prowl. It would be like the scenario from a grade B 1950s post-atomic war movie. The highly respected Center for Strategic and International Studies recently held a conference on the Y2K problem (which the CSIS deems a "national emergency"); a former UK intelligence officer and combat survival trainer said he sure as hell didn't want to be up in the hills come 2000, fighting military survivalist types with AK-47s. So, for North's sake, our sake, everyone's sake, we'd better hope and pray his predictions are wrong and that the worst Y2K problems can be corrected, or at least mitigated, between now and 2000. As noted, I personally expect some hard economic times, and some social disruptions, but probably not Apocalypse Now. I guess we'll see.

-- Don Florence (dflorence@zianet.com), June 29, 1998.

I think Gary North's commentaries are a hoot! I love is sense of humor and look forward to reading his posts! He also finds the best Y2K links on the internet! I appreciate all the work he does.

-- Annie (anniegaff@mailexcite.com), June 29, 1998.

I've subscribed to Gary North's Remnant Review for the past year. If you think his website is good (I think it's the best, and I look at a dozen of them), the real nitty-gritty regarding the y2k bug is in Remnant Review!

-- Ted Dedolph (ted@ted3.com), June 30, 1998.

Call me silly,...I like the North forums,...good info about preparation....the discussions with the most current news links are great. Call me an unabashed paranoid...I have great problems with the basic theonomic viewpoint, the wish to "christianize" the constitution, which is avocated by the Christian Recontructionists. Gary North is a self avowed christian recontructionist. The forums are peppered with good information laden with exhortations to call on jesus, the lord for guidance. Seems like the world's been doing that for 2000 years, and I haven't seen much improvement above barbarism. They will not accept any credit for that, but I am leary of message-laden "good" information. It is a common propaganda technique. Caveat emptor is in order except for information about disaster preparedness. Unless of course you like the notion of public stonings. Back in the good old days we used to say 'the personal is the political"...the idea went out of fashion but I still adhere to it. Have a look at some televangelists for an underscoring of this concept.

-- Donna Barthuley (moment@pacbell.net), July 02, 1998.

Re: Gary North's "indirect connection" to Orange County, California politics!

http://www.ocweekly.com:80/ink/archives/98/52byte-hilty.shtml

>>> ... North's site, located at www.garynorth.com, argues that all this and more will happen. He predicts a total collapse of civilization: power, water, phones, transportation, banks-everything will stop working on Jan. 1, 2000. Before that happens, North urges, we should take to the hills. "I am going to make sure I have plenty of cash, food and survival gear on hand come January 2000," Computerworld magazine quoted him as saying. ...

Christian Reconstructionism is a postmillennial movement-that is, it believes the Second Coming can only be achieved after a 1,000-year reign of Christians on Earth. To that end, it devotes itself to taking over society and reorganizing it according to biblical principles. North is a prime mover in the movement-along with Rousas John Rushdoony, he has published dozens of books on the subject. And Rushdoony's Chalcedon Institute, a Reconstructionist think tank, has ties to Howard Ahmanson, the OC philanthropist who, with state Senator Rob Hurtt (R-Garden Grove), founded the California Independent Business PAC, which funded countless conservative candidates and causes. Ahmanson, according to a Los Angeles Times report, is the single largest donor to the institute.

All that is a rather lengthy digression, but it serves to illustrate the ideological foundation of North's claims. Here is a man publicly preaching an End Times philosophy who has set himself up as an expert on the imminent destruction of society through technology. On North's site, he admits he believes Y2K is God's punishment for idolatry: man relying on himself and his creations rather than on God. This man's claims-being given national credibility by Bell, newspapers and magazines, and scaring the hell out of people like David Palmer-are driven not by technical know-how but by extremist ideology.

Millennial hysteria is a well-documented phenomenon. The Center for Millennial Studies (www.mille.org) was founded recently by historian Richard Landes to study both the millennial madness gripping our culture as we approach 2000 and the phenomena that took place in previous millennial years. He sees the Y2K panic as a classic example of millennial fears embodied in a real technological problem--an analysis North disagrees with vehemently and at some length on his own site. ... <<<

-- ParkTwain (ptwain@ibm.net), September 10, 1998.

Oh Well, it's a free country. North can say whatever he damn well pleases. You can take it or leave it! He sniffs out some good websites and posts some great links. Inso hey?

-- Dave (dave22@concentric.net), September 10, 1998.

For your reading pleasure: a rejoinder to some of the propositions propounded by Mr. North, with a "forum" feature to collect and display reader responses:

"The Gary North is a Big Fat Idiot Page" (with photo of Mr. North on its "forum" page)

http://www.smu.edu/~acambre/garynorth.htm

-- ParkTwain (ptwain@ibm.net), September 14, 1998.

Yes, North has academic credentials yet I distinctly remember him during the late 70's/early 80's as the man who said the world would end on May 11th (??) at the time. He is an alarmist, but it's always best to be prepared.

-- LiLi Robb (lilipad@visinet.com), October 22, 1998.