Ed Yardeni has equated the y2k problem to the 1973-74 recession. While Yardeni was speaking of the economic outlook (he's an optimist!), he's right in another way.

During that time frame the stock market kept going down. Not one big crash, just a little at a time, slowly, slowly, slowly........Chinese water torture for anyone who was in it. Every day one expected to see the market reverse, every day it edged slightly lower. If the market goes slightly lower every day for a lot of days, it eventually is worthless.

Sort of like the frog placed in water over a low flame. As the water temp is slowly raised the frog gets used to it, until finally we eat frog legs.

I wonder if y2k will play out that way? Each day a lot of people -- including some on this forum -- will keep hearing slightly worse news. Each day they'll convince themselves that the next day will be better. They'll anethesize themselves, won't realize how truly bad the news is, until one day it's too late. They're cooked.

They're frog legs!

-- Rocky Knolls (rknolls@hotmail.com), June 15, 1998

Answers

actually it seems like the dow is doing that right now.

I don't know though. But in a way you're right!

-- Ken (k150@yahoo.com), June 15, 1998.

Yes, but the Dow goes up, sometimes more than a hundred point jump after several days of sliding. Then down again. That is the real Chinese water torture.

-- Annie (anniegaff@mailexcite.com), June 16, 1998.

I just cashed in my non-401K mututal funds. Haven't decided what to do with the money yet. Bailing out Japan was only a bandaid and I figured that if the stock market crashes at least I would have my money somewhere else. If nothing happens and things go back to normal, then I have cash to reinvest. You hear from Greenspan that the economy is doing good, but how come we hear so much about companies laying off it's employees and restructuring? Let's not forget the national debt too! I feel like I'm damned if I do and damned if I don't!

-- Barb Douglas (bardou@yahoo.com), June 21, 1998.